Playoffs???!!!

[Ring 6]

Politics News | Breaking Political News, Video & Analysis-ABC News

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

According to the widget above, the Patriots tumbled to a 4% chance of making the playoffs, which sounds about right. IOW for every scenario they do get in, there 24 others that they are not in the postseason.

The most likely scenario of getting in involves specific outcomes from multiple teams, which is why it is so doubtful.


6-7 Patriots: must win their next three games (which would include two upsets: at Miami, home vs Buffalo, then vs the Jets).
Those three wins only bring the Pats odds up to 24%.


8-4 Miami: the Pats need the Dolphins to lose at least three games, which is realistic given there schedule. Losses to KC on Sunday and at Buffalo - both games they will not be favored - plus a loss to the Pats virtually eliminate the Fins.
The odds for the Pats are now up slightly, to 28%

That leaves one game on their schedule, week 16 at Las Vegas.


7-5 Raiders: as a team ahead of the Pats, NE needs the Raiders to lose at least two games. But at the same time the Pats need Miami to lose three games - which means the Pats need the Dolphins to beat LVR.
A Miami victory at the Raiders moves the Pats chances from 28% to 39%.

The Raiders are home for three games (Colts, Chargers, Dolphins) and then finish at Denver. The Pats will need two mild upsets (a win vs the Colts plus a loss at Denver) to go with the Raiders loss to Miami.
Those two losses plus the win against Indy sends the Pats odds to 57%


8-4 Colts: another team the Pats need to have lose three games, including this weekend at the Raiders. The Pats then need Indy to lose at home versus Houston, and at Pittsburgh in week 16. Losses to the Raiders and Texans would be mild upsets, but not shocking.
The hypothetical loss to the Texans jumps the needle for the Pats to 85%, and then 100% after a loss at the Steelers.


tl;dr version:

• Pats win their final three games.
• Miami loses to KC and at Buffalo.
• Raiders lose to Miami and at Denver.
• Indy loses at Raiders, vs Houston, at Pittsburgh.

Although none would be particularly shocking, it is still ten specific outcomes - half of which involve a slight underdog defeating the favored team. How often can you flip ten coins and have them all land on heads?

Well the bright spot is the raiders could lose to anyone. Ironically the jets losing on purpose last week could cost the patriots a playoff spot.

 

[jmt57]

Well the bright spot is the raiders could lose to anyone. Ironically the jets losing on purpose last week could cost the patriots a playoff spot.

For payback the Pats could lose to the Jets in Week 17, leading to the Jaguars getting the #1 pick on a strength of schedule tiebreaker.

Never again would a loss by the Patriots be so celebrated.

 

[everlong]

Somebody had to do it.

 

[1960Pats]

fat Lady isn’t on stage just yet....

 

[lancerman]

Politics News | Breaking Political News, Video & Analysis-ABC News

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

According to the widget above, the Patriots tumbled to a 4% chance of making the playoffs, which sounds about right. IOW for every scenario they do get in, there 24 others that they are not in the postseason.

The most likely scenario of getting in involves specific outcomes from multiple teams, which is why it is so doubtful.


6-7 Patriots: must win their next three games (which would include two upsets: at Miami, home vs Buffalo, then vs the Jets).
Those three wins only bring the Pats odds up to 24%.


8-4 Miami: the Pats need the Dolphins to lose at least three games, which is realistic given there schedule. Losses to KC on Sunday and at Buffalo - both games they will not be favored - plus a loss to the Pats virtually eliminate the Fins.
The odds for the Pats are now up slightly, to 28%

That leaves one game on their schedule, week 16 at Las Vegas.


7-5 Raiders: as a team ahead of the Pats, NE needs the Raiders to lose at least two games. But at the same time the Pats need Miami to lose three games - which means the Pats need the Dolphins to beat LVR.
A Miami victory at the Raiders moves the Pats chances from 28% to 39%.

The Raiders are home for three games (Colts, Chargers, Dolphins) and then finish at Denver. The Pats will need two mild upsets (a win vs the Colts plus a loss at Denver) to go with the Raiders loss to Miami.
Those two losses plus the win against Indy sends the Pats odds to 57%


8-4 Colts: another team the Pats need to have lose three games, including this weekend at the Raiders. The Pats then need Indy to lose at home versus Houston, and at Pittsburgh in week 16. Losses to the Raiders and Texans would be mild upsets, but not shocking.
The hypothetical loss to the Texans jumps the needle for the Pats to 85%, and then 100% after a loss at the Steelers.


tl;dr version:

• Pats win their final three games.
• Miami loses to KC and at Buffalo.
• Raiders lose to Miami and at Denver.
• Indy loses at Raiders, vs Houston, at Pittsburgh.

Although none would be particularly shocking, it is still ten specific outcomes - half of which involve a slight underdog defeating the favored team. How often can you flip ten coins and have them all land on heads?

When you need at least two different teams to go 1-3 the rest of the way and another to go 2-2 you probably have an issue. If we are being realistic about this, even if we beat the Rams and then won out, there were still scenarios on the table where we go 10-6 and still miss out and this is a year where there is an extra playoff spot compared to most.

Even us winning out having to play Buffalo and Miami again seems like it could go either way and that's just the first step

 

[sb1]

For payback the Pats could lose to the Jets in Week 17, leading to the Jaguars getting the #1 pick on a strength of schedule tiebreaker.

Never again would a loss by the Patriots be so celebrated.

I have a feeling that if the Pats are 8-7 clinching an extension of their non losing season streak, they are going to put the preseason roster out there to help the Jets torpedo their own chances at Lawrence. Wouldn’t put it past Bill at all. Lol

 

[BTTA]

As much fun as it would be to have the Jets lose out on Lawrence, we are probably better off having him play there than in Jacksonville, which with a great QB (if he turns out to be one) could actually be an AFC powerhouse for years. The Jets would just screw it up. The Jags have lost a lot of close games to good teams this year.

 

[Ross12]

This actually isn't that big of a stretch, since there are 3 wild card teams... Realistically they need to win the final three, have Miami lose 3 more games (one of which being against NE), Las Vegas lose 2 more, and Baltimore lose 2 more.

Miami schedule: vs. KC, vs. NE, @LV, @BUF
Vegas schedule: vs. IND, vs. LAC, vs. MIA, @DEN
Baltimore schedule: @CLE, vs. JAX, vs. NYG, @CIN

I really don't have a hard time thinking Miami could drop 3. I doubt they'll beat KC, so then it's down to the Pats needing to win, and then it's Vegas and Buffalo, both of whom will be fighting for their playoff spots too...

Vegas also has a tough go - two games against teams fighting for playoff spots, and then LAC and DEN who are not crap teams. Dropping two here is also not a shocker and I kinda expect it tbh.

Baltimore is the least convincing... they could certainly drop this weekend's game against CLE, but their final 3 are pretty cake. It probably comes down to if the Giants can stay hot and beat them since they are also technically fighting for the NFCE crown...

An unlikely last option is Indy losing 3 of their last 4, which is not super likely, but could happen - they play @LV, vs. HOU and @PIT across their next three, and I doubt any of those will be cake. However if they lose to Vegas that makes things harder since Vegas probably stays ahead of NE.

I think a "4% chance" is kind of low, but I wouldn't say it's any higher than 20%. I can easily see this unfolding naturally without the need for some kind of "epic collapse" scenario...

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

Politics News | Breaking Political News, Video & Analysis-ABC News

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

According to the widget above, the Patriots tumbled to a 4% chance of making the playoffs, which sounds about right. IOW for every scenario they do get in, there 24 others that they are not in the postseason.

The most likely scenario of getting in involves specific outcomes from multiple teams, which is why it is so doubtful.


6-7 Patriots: must win their next three games (which would include two upsets: at Miami, home vs Buffalo, then vs the Jets).
Those three wins only bring the Pats odds up to 24%.


8-4 Miami: the Pats need the Dolphins to lose at least three games, which is realistic given there schedule. Losses to KC on Sunday and at Buffalo - both games they will not be favored - plus a loss to the Pats virtually eliminate the Fins.
The odds for the Pats are now up slightly, to 28%

That leaves one game on their schedule, week 16 at Las Vegas.


7-5 Raiders: as a team ahead of the Pats, NE needs the Raiders to lose at least two games. But at the same time the Pats need Miami to lose three games - which means the Pats need the Dolphins to beat LVR.
A Miami victory at the Raiders moves the Pats chances from 28% to 39%.

The Raiders are home for three games (Colts, Chargers, Dolphins) and then finish at Denver. The Pats will need two mild upsets (a win vs the Colts plus a loss at Denver) to go with the Raiders loss to Miami.
Those two losses plus the win against Indy sends the Pats odds to 57%


8-4 Colts: another team the Pats need to have lose three games, including this weekend at the Raiders. The Pats then need Indy to lose at home versus Houston, and at Pittsburgh in week 16. Losses to the Raiders and Texans would be mild upsets, but not shocking.
The hypothetical loss to the Texans jumps the needle for the Pats to 85%, and then 100% after a loss at the Steelers.


tl;dr version:

• Pats win their final three games.
• Miami loses to KC and at Buffalo.
• Raiders lose to Miami and at Denver.
• Indy loses at Raiders, vs Houston, at Pittsburgh.

Although none would be particularly shocking, it is still ten specific outcomes - half of which involve a slight underdog defeating the favored team. How often can you flip ten coins and have them all land on heads?

So Pats qualifying would be stunning, and involve not only three straight wins but a slew of other favorable outcomes.

Can we be eliminated next week, even if we win?

IF we somehow get in, I reference the 2011 Giants.

How would the Patriots get on such a roll?

Edelman not just returning - but on fire.

A real commitment to running with Harris & Michel - getting Josh to do this a bigger miracle than making the playoffs.

Some kind of defensive reinforcement to be better stopping the run. I don't know what. Unless Cam turns into MVP Cam and we win shootouts - not typically the path to a title.

 

[oldrover]

Politics News | Breaking Political News, Video & Analysis-ABC News

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

According to the widget above, the Patriots tumbled to a 4% chance of making the playoffs, which sounds about right. IOW for every scenario they do get in, there 24 others that they are not in the postseason.

The most likely scenario of getting in involves specific outcomes from multiple teams, which is why it is so doubtful.


6-7 Patriots: must win their next three games (which would include two upsets: at Miami, home vs Buffalo, then vs the Jets).
Those three wins only bring the Pats odds up to 24%.


8-4 Miami: the Pats need the Dolphins to lose at least three games, which is realistic given there schedule. Losses to KC on Sunday and at Buffalo - both games they will not be favored - plus a loss to the Pats virtually eliminate the Fins.
The odds for the Pats are now up slightly, to 28%

That leaves one game on their schedule, week 16 at Las Vegas.


7-5 Raiders: as a team ahead of the Pats, NE needs the Raiders to lose at least two games. But at the same time the Pats need Miami to lose three games - which means the Pats need the Dolphins to beat LVR.
A Miami victory at the Raiders moves the Pats chances from 28% to 39%.

The Raiders are home for three games (Colts, Chargers, Dolphins) and then finish at Denver. The Pats will need two mild upsets (a win vs the Colts plus a loss at Denver) to go with the Raiders loss to Miami.
Those two losses plus the win against Indy sends the Pats odds to 57%


8-4 Colts: another team the Pats need to have lose three games, including this weekend at the Raiders. The Pats then need Indy to lose at home versus Houston, and at Pittsburgh in week 16. Losses to the Raiders and Texans would be mild upsets, but not shocking.
The hypothetical loss to the Texans jumps the needle for the Pats to 85%, and then 100% after a loss at the Steelers.


tl;dr version:

• Pats win their final three games.
• Miami loses to KC and at Buffalo.
• Raiders lose to Miami and at Denver.
• Indy loses at Raiders, vs Houston, at Pittsburgh.

Although none would be particularly shocking, it is still ten specific outcomes - half of which involve a slight underdog defeating the favored team. How often can you flip ten coins and have them all land on heads?

Your analysis here is fabulous, sir. Thank you!

 

[captain stone]

fat Lady isn’t on stage just yet....

She’s in the green room, warming up

She's actually just behind the curtain with one foot in the air...

This will be one of those years where we just miss out. Like 02 or 08

We're practically guaranteed to lose the next two games, so it's not like '02 & '08, at all, unless you think 8-7 & 10-5 going into the season's final game is the same as 6-9.

 

[TheRainMaker]

She's actually just behind the curtain with one foot in the air...

We're practically guaranteed to lose the next two games, so it's not like '02 & '08, at all, unless you think 8-7 & 10-5 going into the season's final game is the same as 6-9.

Even if the won 3 straight, a playoff berth is unlikely.

They'll finish 7-9 at best.

 

[sb1]

Nah, it’s over.

And that’s ok. I think most of us - and Bill too - understood this was a write-off year. Looking forward to the next contending Pats team.

 

[captain stone]

Nah, it’s over.

And that’s ok. I think most of us - and Bill too - understood this was a write-off year. Looking forward to the next contending Pats team.

Then I hope you're not older than 40.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

So our slim chances begin today with Miami vs kc and tomorrow Baltimore vs Cleveland. If we’ll have any shot it starts with kc and Cleveland winning this week.

Indy vs Oakland is a tough call right now, positives to both losing and hard to tell which is better without knowing what happens the last 3 weeks. Just kinda look at it like a win win situation for now.

So appears we have 2 breaks completely needed this week. Kc looks very likely, Cleveland is hot and should win but ravens will be desperate.

 

[102 Pat]

This actually isn't that big of a stretch, since there are 3 wild card teams... Realistically they need to win the final three, have Miami lose 3 more games (one of which being against NE), Las Vegas lose 2 more, and Baltimore lose 2 more.

Miami schedule: vs. KC, vs. NE, @LV, @BUF
Vegas schedule: vs. IND, vs. LAC, vs. MIA, @DEN
Baltimore schedule: @CLE, vs. JAX, vs. NYG, @CIN

Is this what needs to happen for the Pats to make the playoffs?

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Is this what needs to happen for the Pats to make the playoffs?

yes, or if one of those doesnt happen indy losing 3 more would get us in instead.

 

[1960Pats]

It's kind of funny seeing the thoughts of Pats fans now compared to 2018. There were more fans declaring that season over after the Pittsburgh game than there are here now. I remember giving some of them grief for giving up. And that team at the time was 9-5 with Tom Brady, not 6-7 with Can't Newton.

 

[102 Pat]

It's kind of funny seeing the thoughts of Pats fans now compared to 2018. There were more fans declaring that season over after the Pittsburgh game than there are here now. I remember giving some of them grief for giving up. And that team at the time was 9-5 with Tom Brady, not 6-7 with Can't Newton.

Maybe, just maybe some on here have realized how good they have had it over the years? Nah, that would be too easy...

 

[Ross12]

It's kind of funny seeing the thoughts of Pats fans now compared to 2018. There were more fans declaring that season over after the Pittsburgh game than there are here now. I remember giving some of them grief for giving up. And that team at the time was 9-5 with Tom Brady, not 6-7 with Can't Newton.

People who thought the season was over at 9-5 in 2018 are now people who thought this season was over vs. Denver at 2-3.