FiveThirtyEight's 2020 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
According to the widget above, the Patriots tumbled to a
4% chance of making the playoffs, which sounds about right.
IOW for every scenario they do get in, there are 24 others that result in no postseason for the Pats.
The most likely scenario of getting in involves specific outcomes from multiple teams, which is why it is so doubtful:
6-7 Patriots: must win their next three games (which would include two upsets: at Miami, home vs Buffalo), and then vs the Jets.
Those three wins only bring the Pats odds up to
24%.
8-4 Miami: the Pats need the Dolphins to lose at least three games, which is realistic given there schedule. Losses to KC on Sunday and at Buffalo - both games they will not be favored - plus a loss to the Pats virtually eliminate the Fins.
The odds for the Pats are now up slightly, to
28%.
That leaves one game on their schedule, week 16 at Las Vegas.
7-5 Raiders: as a team ahead of the Pats, NE needs the Raiders to lose at least two games. But at the same time the Pats need Miami to lose three games - which means the Pats need the Dolphins to beat LVR.
A Miami victory at the Raiders moves the Pats chances from 28% to
39%.
The Raiders are home for three games (Colts, Chargers, Dolphins) and then finish at Denver. The Pats will need two mild upsets (a win vs the Colts plus a loss at Denver) to go with the Raiders loss to Miami.
Those two losses plus the win against Indy sends the Pats odds to
57%.
8-4 Colts: another team the Pats need to have lose three games, including this weekend at the Raiders. The Pats then need Indy to lose at home versus Houston, and at Pittsburgh in week 16. Losses to the Raiders and Texans would be mild upsets, but not shocking.
The hypothetical loss to the Texans jumps the needle for the Pats to
85%, and then
100% after a loss at the Steelers.
tl;dr version:
- Pats win their final three games.
- Miami loses to KC and at Buffalo.
- Raiders lose to Miami and at Denver.
- Indy loses at Raiders, vs Houston, at Pittsburgh.
Edit To Add:
Another option would be for Baltimore to lose twice, replacing one of the options above.
For example, remove the Colts having to lose three times, and in their place add two Raven losses.
That allows for a more realistic scenario with a Raider loss to Indy (plus their loss to Miami).
Baltimore would need to lose twice, most likely being vs Browns on Monday and vs Giants in two weeks.
Although none would be particularly shocking, it is still ten specific outcomes - half of which involve a slight underdog defeating the favored team. How often can you flip ten coins and have them all land on heads?
