So You're Saying There's a Chance: The 2020 Patriots Playoff Push

[A Defiant Goose]

First off we pretty much have to run the table; losing one more game would mean we need Indy and/or Miami to lose about 3 more games. I went through a realistic enough (to me) sim in the playoff machine and ended up with:



So who wants a spot on the hype train?

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I still feel our chances are less than 50-50 but theres a shot yeah. 10-6 almost 100% would get us in but I think we can all agree 9-7 is the more likely best case scenario.

at 9-7 we would need some help but the good news is if we beat Miami ( which you would have to assume is necessary for this to even be possible anyway), we would have tiebreakers on all the wc teams ahead of us. Ravens, Miami, raiders we would have h2h. Browns and colts each have at least 3 wins against their nfc opponents while we’ll have 2 max, meaning if we end up tied with either team we would have the better afc record.

Lots of scoreboard watching but its very possible, all aforementioned teams have multiple losable games remaining and all are highly unproven teams. Even the browns at 8-3 wouldn’t shock me if they collapse to 9-7 given their schedule.

 

[jdlboot14]

I honestly don't know if I'd prefer a nail-biting run to squeak into the playoffs - only to get embarrassed by the Titans again in the wildcard round.
Or, to go 8-8, have a better shot at a decent QB, but have that .500 stain on BB's record which will have all the haters screaming that it was all Brady.
One thing I do know - I just DON'T want PIT, KC, TB to win the super bowl. Anyone but those 3.

 

[FCB02062]

Chances are slim but there's always a chance until they're mathematically eliminated. Many of us were around at 3-6 back in November 1994. There's always hope folks...

 

[sb1]

I honestly don't know if I'd prefer a nail-biting run to squeak into the playoffs - only to get embarrassed by the Titans again in the wildcard round.
Or, to go 8-8, have a better shot at a decent QB, but have that .500 stain on BB's record which will have all the haters screaming that it was all Brady.
One thing I do know - I just DON'T want PIT, KC, TB to win the super bowl. Anyone but those 3.

That wouldn't be a stain on Bill's record, it's a testament to it with a roster like this and sub par QB play.

If McDaniels was head coach and not Bill we'd probably be battling with the Jets for last.

 

[Jim Beankie]

Chances are slim but there's always a chance until they're mathematically eliminated. Many of us were around at 3-6 back in November 1994. There's always hope folks...

Wow - I don't know how I forgot about that.

 

[A Defiant Goose]

I honestly don't know if I'd prefer a nail-biting run to squeak into the playoffs - only to get embarrassed by the Titans again in the wildcard round.
Or, to go 8-8, have a better shot at a decent QB, but have that .500 stain on BB's record which will have all the haters screaming that it was all Brady.
One thing I do know - I just DON'T want PIT, KC, TB to win the super bowl. Anyone but those 3.

Honestly a successful year to me would be a winning record, but it would be the cherry on top if NE makes it to the playoffs and has the same outcome at the end of the year as they did last year with Brady. I am rooting for BB to go way above and beyond what this roster should have been doing.

 

[jdlboot14]

Chances are slim but there's always a chance until they're mathematically eliminated. Many of us were around at 3-6 back in November 1994. There's always hope folks...

Yup, that was one of the best seasons ever. It all started with "the shovel game" vs. MIN. But, that team had some spark and offensive capacity to score, and Ben Coates. I've yet to see a fraction of that potential this year. But we ran in to BB in CLE that year, so there's always maybe!

 

[fourhour]

I voted the 2nd choice. Just like Sundays game, nothing special, but everything played out to a win.

 

[tasmlab]

I think we are something like 28-3 late in the third.

 

[jdlboot14]

My prediction is:
AFCCG Titans @ Chiefs
NFCCG Packers @ Saints

 

[sb1]

If they can sweep the road trip @LAC @LAR and @Mia...look out.

I don't think they will though. That's a lot to ask.

 

[sb1]

The ESPN machine is up if you want to play around with it:
2020 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios - ESPN

 

[jdlboot14]

If they can sweep the road trip @LAC @LAR and @Mia...look out.

I don't think they will though. That's a lot to ask.

As much as I hold out hope, I don't realistically see them beating the Rams and Bills. Unless they miraculously flip a switch on a more capable passing game (which JE11 could bring back single handedly)

 

[sb1]

As much as I hold out hope, I don't realistically see them beating the Rams and Bills. Unless they miraculously flip a switch on a more capable passing game (which JE11 could bring back single handedly)

I think they'll lose to both and plausibly win the rest to finish 8-8. Unless the Bills wrap up the AFC East by week 16 - then they might not have much to play for vs the Pats and 9-7 is a possibility.

Right now I think their playoff odds are 10%. They must win out and one team in the AFC North has to slip.

 

[luuked]

I think they'll lose to both and plausibly win the rest to finish 8-8. Unless the Bills wrap up the AFC East by week 16 - then they might not have much to play for vs the Pats and 9-7 is a possibility.

Right now I think their playoff odds are 10%. They must win out and one team in the AFC North has to slip.

They were one fumble away from beating the Bills at Buffalo so I am not really sure why a couple of weeks later the odds would have dramatically shifted. It's like we have been saying every time in the last 20 years: It is a division game, odds are it will be close either way. And that statement goes both ways whether you are the top dog in the division or going down an unlikely playoff path.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

If they can sweep the road trip @LAC @LAR and @Mia...look out.

I don't think they will though. That's a lot to ask.

It is, im just hopeful as a fan that the possibility is there. Winning Sunday means at least a couple more weeks of hope. Sets up a big game against the rams and if thats a loss we could still possibly pull off the last 3 for 9-7. A loss this week would be disastrous though!

 

[amfootball]

It is possible we could go 10-6 and still not get in. Shades of 2008 again maybe. Just so many teams ahead of us. We have to hope that it comes down to either the Ravens or Raiders that we are somehow tied with for that last spot given we have the tiebreaker over them. But realistically I think it ends up being Colts, Browns and Miami.

 

[sb1]

It is possible we could go 10-6 and still not get in. Shades of 2008 again maybe. Just so many teams ahead of us. We have to hope that it comes down to either the Ravens or Raiders that we are somehow tied with for that last spot given we have the tiebreaker over them. But realistically I think it ends up being Colts, Browns and Miami.

If the Pats finish 10-6 then they have a wide path in. They'll have tiebreakers over Miami, Raiders, Ravens. They'll be 8-4 in the AFC which is good enough. The Browns have 3 AFC losses but they'll play the Steelers and the rest of the AFC North so it's likely they'll have at least one more, and they will lose to us on the common opponents tiebreaker if the teams are tied.

Can't see it happening though. I think the Rams are a formidable opponent.

 

[Nikolai]

It is possible we could go 10-6 and still not get in. Shades of 2008 again maybe. Just so many teams ahead of us. We have to hope that it comes down to either the Ravens or Raiders that we are somehow tied with for that last spot given we have the tiebreaker over them. But realistically I think it ends up being Colts, Browns and Miami.

One of the big differences between this year and 2008 is that this year, the Pats are showing up against playoff caliber teams. One could argue that the 2008 Pats inability to win enough against playoff teams was their undoing, where in 2020, the underdog Pats ability to beat playoff contenders is what is keeping them in the fight.