Oficial Post Game Thread- Pats beat the Cardinals

[PATSNUTme]

Very good win yesterday- a whole team win! But my eyes tell me that Cam is not the answer and the Patriots should let him go after this season. Way too many unforced errors over the year for a veteran QB.

 

[sb1]

Pats probably won’t make the playoffs but at least they seem to be taking on the role of spoiler. They put the Ravens playoff hopes in jeopardy and it looks like they might have done the same to the Cardinals. Love it.

 

[FCB02062]

The Patriots pulled out the ugliest of wins and they seemingly could have quit at the end of the half and let AZ walk into the end zone,.. But they made a stand when I and many others thought it was game ovah given the ineptitude of the offense. Have to give them credit for staying in the game.
Given the # of teams w 7 wins in the AFC that 9-7 record many thought might squeak them into the tournament is now looking like a 10 win minimum. With yesterday's offense that'll be near impossible. So as a fan I'm hoping for 9-7. 4-1 down the stretch and at least they're over .500. that gives coach Bill 2 over .500 seasons without Brady. That's impressive.

 

[PScottman]

where literally all we accomplished was helping a rival is where I have pause.

Securing a draft pick isn't "winning".

How many steps have to follow to get to the actual win on the scoreboard part (repeatedly, not just one single win BTW)?
1. Draft the right guy.
2. Assume he doesn't pull a Manning and refuse to play for you (and that fabled "winning" the draft pick secured according to you).
3. Has a coach and a staff that can develop you from college high level player to pro level player.
4. That they surround him with talent to be a better overall team.
5. That the scheme fits the pick's style of play.
6. That he doesn't get injured.
7. That he improves enough that defenses don't "figure you out" and take away what you do well.
8. That the money doesn't "go to his head" and make football not the most important thing in his life.
9. COVID-21
10. That he gels with your teammates and are not a prima donna
11. That his first year is so bad he loses all confidence in his ability and regresses

12. should I keep going...????

A draft pick is a dice roll - whether #1 or #142. Hundreds of variables contribute and are as unpredictable as the draft itself. There is zero direct correlation to drafting #1 and winning ANYTHING in the NFL.

 

[lancerman]

Let's see. 10 teams with the current best betting odds to win the SB: Chiefs, Saints, Steelers, Packers, Seahawks, Rams, Bucs, Bills, Titans, Ravens. Looking at a cross-section of NFL power rankings gives largely the same list (unsurprisingly).

7 out of 10 acquired their starting QB in FA or outside of the top 10 in the draft. Only top 5 pick is Jared Goff (happy to be corrected if I missed someone). Your thesis doesn't seem to be supported by fact.

Mahomes was a top 10. Brees was in the top 32, Ben was in the most stacked class of his decade and was 11th overall. Rodgers like I said was projected number 1 and had one of the biggest slides ever. It was a weird draft where QB wasn’t a major priority for teams after the Niner’s. Then a team with Brett Farve got him. You want to bet on an outlier, have fun. Allen was top 10. Tannehill was top 10 (8 overall). Jackson was 32 overall. Again Jackson had 4 guys in his draft class

Brady and Wilson are the only two in that list outside the top 32. 4 are top 10 picks, 1 is at 11 just outside that, 1 was a historic slide that was otherwise projected to go 1 overall, and 2 others remained in the top 32. Of those two Brees was coming up in an era where he was heavily discounted because of height, that wouldn’t happen today, Jackson was a Heisman winner who got stuck in a deep draft class and a team still traded up to grab him.

You are ignoring a lot of circumstance to get to your conclusion.

Beyond that, Brady went to the Bucs because they are a win now team. Do you think Stafford would think we are win now team for him to finish his career at? Brady also spent 20 years on the same team and was the biggest free agency QB since Manning in 2012. So you are talking about something that happens like once every 8 years.

The rule of thumb is get a QB high. The preponderance of data suggests that is the best way to do it

 

[p8ryts]

I have been critical of Winovich and Bentley. The defense was not good in the first quarter but something clicked for them the last 3 quarters. Winovich finally set the edge and was a contributor. Bentley made some good plays. I was very pleased with Dugger, not perfect but he should be something next year. Cam is much more limited as a passer than I thought. He can throw a line drive between the hash marks but anywhere else its a crap shoot. Guy, Phillips and Simon, core guys for me that just do their job. Butler was awesome. Spence showed up on a couple plays. Seems like Bill has decided who he wants to play and where. Maybe they could build on that.

 

[luuked]

The rule of thumb is get a QB high. The preponderance of data suggests that is the best way to do it

What data ? There is not much evidence when you look at the last 10 years. There were many more total failures and below average disappointments than there were hits when it comes to QBs in the first round.

Lynch (#26), Manziel (#22), Rosen(#10), Trubisky (#2), Locker (#8), Ponder (#12), RG3 (#2), Bortles (#3), EJ Manuel (#16), Gabbert (#10), Weeden (#22), Winston (#1), Mariota (#2), Haskins (#15), Darnold (#3), Goff (#1)

 

[Thelonious]

My condolences

On what? I lived off-grid for 10 years: no TV. I got used to sports on the radio and still prefer it. Then I can actually study the game on GamePass. So your "wit" is as erroneous as it is lame, a familiar feeling I'm guessing.

 

[Thelonious]

Lol? It's definitely clear which one of us is a little sensitive. This team is a few less opt outs and moderately better QB play away from a playoff run.

Plumbing ever deeper realms of delusion, I see. Very intrepid of you.

 

[PScottman]

We’re an inconsistent team

Youth and inconsistency? Shocked.

The BB method relies upon a heavily veteran team that is able to integrate rookies either in certain singular positions right away where the inconsistency is hidden by the rest of the unit and the limited role the player has thrust upon them or over time building both consistency and confidence. It expects high football IQ at the PRO level to do football tasks fundamentally and based on what the called play expects. This is the second time in his tenure where he's had to approach the year as much more heavily skewed in the teaching and fundamentals than adding complexity and depth to the weekly gameplan.

 

[Thelonious]

3rd and long last drive, he ran for a first down, not easy

True. First downs nearly always "not easy" for this waste of a roster spot. TD passes are even more scarce: 4 of 'em.

Get serious.

 

[PScottman]

@ LAC - W
@ LAR - L
@ MIA - W
BUF - L
NYJ - W

Have you watched this season? They lose to the "easy win" teams and win the "no chance in Hell" games. Probably lose next week to the Chargers only to win against the Rams.

 

[lancerman]

Securing a draft pick isn't "winning".

How many steps have to follow to get to the actual win on the scoreboard part (repeatedly, not just one single win BTW)?
1. Draft the right guy.
2. Assume he doesn't pull a Manning and refuse to play for you (and that fabled "winning" the draft pick secured according to you).
3. Has a coach and a staff that can develop you from college high level player to pro level player.
4. That they surround you with talent to be a better overall team.
5. That the scheme fits the pick's style of play.
6. That you don't get injured.
7. That you improve enough that defenses don't "figure you out" and take away what you do well.
8. That the money doesn't "go to your head" and make football not the most important thing in your life.
9. COVID-21
10. That you gel with your teammates and are not a prima donna
11. That your first year is so bad you lose all confidence in your ability and regress

12. should I keep going...????

A draft pick is a dice roll - whether #1 or #142. Hundreds of variables contribute and are as unpredictable as the draft itself. There is zero direct correlation to drafting #1 and winning ANYTHING in the NFL.

1. Every single team in the NFL has to draft the right guy at every position. There is always an inherit risk with draft picks, you still have to do it. Every team does.

2. In the last 20 years only one QB pulled a Manning. It was a legacy QB from a historic QB family. This is an extreme outlier scenario that one team dealt with and they were able to get Rivers as a consolation prize. Even if he does, you have him at ransom for a trade haul.

3. You have to assume Belichick is the right coach and has the right system to develop a QB. If you can’t assume that, we have much deeper problems.

4. Again something every team has to do regardless.

5. Again something every team has to do regardless

6. Again a risk every team has to deal with.

7. Again that’s a development thing, you either trust the coaching staff or you don’t. If you don’t, then we are just screwed.

8. Again a risk every team has to take who is looking for a QB.

9. once in a century pandemic big deal

10/11 again risks that are unavoidable when you draft a QB.

Data is very clear. 75% to 80% of the QB’s league is a first round pick. The preponderance in the top 10 of the draft. The number 1 overall pick produces more SB winning QB’s and high level QB’s than any other pick in draft history. You have an 81% chance of hitting on a QB in the top half of the first round. The minute you leave the first round it goes to 48%.

Even if we won out, we still need to 3 other teams to lose multiple games to get in the playoffs. There’s 5 games left. Our playoff hopes were over a month ago. There is no tangible benefit anymore to winning games. The next loss this team takes we will not have a winning record. Aside from sentimental hottakes, everything we do the rest of the year is in service to next year. There is no playoff run at the end of the tunnel.

At some point, you are going to have to try to address the QB situation. There’s a common very efficient way to do it. Pretty much every other route is a low percentage scenario. Look for an Aaron Rodgers style fall? Happened once in 30 years. Look for an elite QB outside the first round? That’s Brady and Wilson. Happens once a decade. Hope for a free agency megastar to come here? Happened 3 times in the last 15 years (Brady, Manning, Farve) each scenario the team got less than 3 solid years of them (Brady is tbd) and they all looked for specific win now teams (right now we are not in that category). Even like Rivers situation where it was an older guy whose team moved on... rare and he went straight to the first team he thought had a talented roster. Even getting Cam was an unlikely scenario and that didn’t even pan out, you know how many times a 30 something year old former MVP is on the market?

The reality is, the most likely path is the primary one in this league and there are certain picks that have better yields than others.

Brady isn’t falling out of the sky again. We have to be realistic. We probably will need to draft our next long term QB and the higher we draft, the superior our chances

 

[lancerman]

Have you watched this season? They lose to the "easy win" teams and win the "no chance in Hell" games. Probably lose next week to the Chargers only to win against the Rams.

Chargers have had a strong game with nearly every team they played as well. That could go either way. If there was an upset to be concerned about, it’s they game

 

[sb1]

Have you watched this season? They lose to the "easy win" teams and win the "no chance in Hell" games. Probably lose next week to the Chargers only to win against the Rams.

Good point they do seem to play to their competition. Though I wouldn't call the Cardinals game a no chance in hell game. I predicted a win yesterday.

 

[luuked]

You have an 81% chance of hitting on a QB in the top half of the first round.

What a bunch of horse ****e. Odds of hitting on a QB even in the top half of the draft are at or below 50% if you look at the last 10 years. But you don't care about an actual discussion but just want to push a narrative without any factual basis.

But please humor me and show me those 80%+ of QB picks in the last 10 years that have been hits.

 

[IllegalContact]

On what? I lived off-grid for 10 years: no TV. I got used to sports on the radio and still prefer it. Then I can actually study the game on GamePass. So your "wit" is as erroneous as it is lame, a familiar feeling I'm guessing.

ok..........go study the game 'off-grid' and enjoy

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Mahomes was a top 10. Brees was in the top 32, Ben was in the most stacked class of his decade and was 11th overall. Rodgers like I said was projected number 1 and had one of the biggest slides ever. It was a weird draft where QB wasn’t a major priority for teams after the Niner’s. Then a team with Brett Farve got him. You want to bet on an outlier, have fun. Allen was top 10. Tannehill was top 10 (8 overall). Jackson was 32 overall. Again Jackson had 4 guys in his draft class

Brady and Wilson are the only two in that list outside the top 32. 4 are top 10 picks, 1 is at 11 just outside that, 1 was a historic slide that was otherwise projected to go 1 overall, and 2 others remained in the top 32. Of those two Brees was coming up in an era where he was heavily discounted because of height, that wouldn’t happen today, Jackson was a Heisman winner who got stuck in a deep draft class and a team still traded up to grab him.

You are ignoring a lot of circumstance to get to your conclusion.

Beyond that, Brady went to the Bucs because they are a win now team. Do you think Stafford would think we are win now team for him to finish his career at? Brady also spent 20 years on the same team and was the biggest free agency QB since Manning in 2012. So you are talking about something that happens like once every 8 years.

The rule of thumb is get a QB high. The preponderance of data suggests that is the best way to do it

Aaron Rodgers was never projected #1 in that draft. It was never even really debated whether it was alex smith or rodgers going into the draft.

.

 

[IllegalContact]

The replay showed it clear as day. Both in full motion and slow motion.

Cam was already heading OOB. You don't have to lower your head the way the defender did.

no different than the penalty on Jennings........in both cases, the flag was thrown due to the fact that according to the letter of the law, it could be, and because they were unnecessary, it was thrown.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

What data ? There is not much evidence when you look at the last 10 years. There were many more total failures and below average disappointments than there were hits when it comes to QBs in the first round.

Lynch (#26), Manziel (#22), Rosen(#10), Trubisky (#2), Locker (#8), Ponder (#12), RG3 (#2), Bortles (#3), EJ Manuel (#16), Gabbert (#10), Weeden (#22), Winston (#1), Mariota (#2), Haskins (#15), Darnold (#3), Goff (#1)

Excellent post. It's super flawed logic to say most nfl QBs today were first round picks so only first round picks succeed. The same screwed up reasoning McD used to mess up our WR scouting methods.
As you noted a ton of first round QBs are total busts. Some may get that extra year or two of time simply because of their high draft status with the team, but so many 'sure' thing QBs in the first round end up total garbage within 2 years.