Opt-Outs

[luuked]

Yes, very cognizant of weather.

If there is lightning, I go inside.

If it is hot & sunny on the golf course I apply sunscreen liberally and wear a hat with a wide brim.

When it's really hot I never go fishing until after 6pm, the bass never bite during the day when it's really hot.

Gotta pay attention to the weather.

I mean please go on.. the way you are putting your Dunning-Kruger bias on display for all to see thinking you are considering aspects that thousands of scientists and advisors worldwide are ignoring is pretty entertaining.

The funny thing about a pandemic -- as you correctly have stated -- is that it is worldwide. So all those looney conspiracy theories that media and certain parts of the political spectrum are making it worse than it actually is are going out of the window. And the countries who are not a total COVID ****hole but have their situation under control come from a vast political range of governments.

But, again, please don't let it stop you to spend your time looking into death statistics on the internet and comparing it to one of the biggest health crisis in over 100 years.

 

[luuked]

LOL.

You familiar with the long-standing legal adage...never ask a question you don't already know the answer to?

I honestly don't think you have the necessary knowledge to fully understand a scientific article outside a few sentences of the abstract, introduction and its conclusion.

Which again feeds into that cognitive bias that makes you think you have answers when you don't even understand the questions on a scientific level.

Let's start small. Read up on Occam's Razor and then try to apply it to the worldwide reaction to COVID and why countries all around the globe were willing to nuke their own economies with shutdowns.

 

[Nunchucks]

What are the odds of man between ages 39 and 53 dying in a motorcycle accident?

Riding a motorcycle is a choice, again, how many people will a single motorcycle accident possibly kill or harm over the next year? Or do they not exponentially grow?

 

[PatsFanSince74]

If an athlete opts out of the season for personal health or family reasons due to Covid, he doesn't owe me any explanation beyond "that's my decision."

The disease has done too much damage and still has too many unknowns associated with it. "Surviving Covid" can mean moving on with your life as though you only had a mild case of the flu or it can mean long term disability for people in all age groups.

 

[moosekill]

If an athlete opts out of the season for personal health or family reasons due to Covid, he doesn't owe me any explanation beyond "that's my decision."

The disease has done too much damage and still has too many unknowns associated with it. "Surviving Covid" can mean moving on with your life as though you only had a mild case of the flu or it can mean long term disability for people in all age groups.

Or it could make your **** fall off. It hasn't happened to anyone yet but, it might. We just don't know yet.

 

[203Pat]

Amazing that people are still this ignorant about this thing...

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Do you ride a motorcycle?

I am a Harley fan and ride multiple times every Summer/Fall, but rarely in the Spring.

 

[venecol]

Yes, very cognizant of weather.

If there is lightning, I go inside.

If it is hot & sunny on the golf course I apply sunscreen liberally and wear a hat with a wide brim.

When it's really hot I never go fishing until after 6pm, the bass never bite during the day when it's really hot.

Gotta pay attention to the weather.

Since you're such a fan of the weather and odds of dying, here's a local weatherman dumbing it down for you.

What are the odds of dying from COVID-19 vs. lightning?

 

[QuantumMechanic]

2,190,000,000/518 = 4,224,886

So, over the 14-year period from 2006-2019 odds were 1:4,224,886 for perishing in a commercial air crash.

*NOTE: The 6M is from 2017 and using it for the entire 14-year window probably overstates the total number of flights taken...which by association would understate the odds of perishing in an air crash...better to be conservative.

How about you take a shot at calculating the odds of a human being dying from covid?

The CDC's current estimated infection (not case) fatality rate is 0.65% (1:154). I expect 50-80% of the US population to catch it. But I'll humor you and go low and say only 20% (1:5) of the US population will catch it.

That means the average person has an 0.2 chance of catching it and thus an 0.2 * 0.0065 = 0.0013 = 0.13% = 1:769 chance of dying from it.

So even with a likely too low estimate of a 20% attack rate in the US, an average person in the US is 5494 times more likely to die of C19 than from a commercial plane crash.

 

[BTTA]

Amazing that people are still this ignorant about this thing...

Not as amazing as we'd like to think.

In other news, RLKAG: Ravens Fan Can’t Believe Ray Lewis Charging $300 On Cameo Just To Stab People

 

[JarOfMayo51]

You are as likely to die from the flu as covid at your age, so if you are equally afraid of getting the flu you are spot on. If you don't really care about the flu but are scared to death of dying from Covid-19 then you are uninformed.

I'm in my late 30s and have an underlying health condition that COVID could complicate a great deal, so its certainly not something I would want to get.

I've had the flu and I was hospitalized overseas with the swine flu along time ago, and neither of those really scared me because they didn't mess with my lungs

COVID messes with your lungs, among other things, and has a very long incubation time which makes it much more likely to spread because of lack of early detection.

I'm not terrified of it, and I think if i got it I would pull out of it fine like I have many other things in the past, but I would be terrified of spreading it to my mother or father.. my father would be f***ed if he got it and would very likely perish

I'd also be terrified of giving it to my 1.5 year old son, even tho he would likely recover from it.. altho with him id actually be more scared if he got the Flu than Covid, but those aren't dice you ever want to roll

 

[Twentytothree]

As such, to get a true picture, we must consider the entire data set.
...
So, over the 14-year period from 2006-2019 odds were 1:4,224,886 for perishing in a commercial air crash.

How about you take a shot at calculating the odds of a human being dying from covid?

Well, if everybody goes about their merry ways "living a normal life" and one (optimistically) assumes long-lasting immunity after recovery, total death toll would be ~ IFR x herd immunity threshold. IFR estimates still vary widely (0.1% to 1.5%). Can't be much lower than 0.1% as e.g. in Belgium 0.08% of the whole population have already died. Using the CDC "current best estimate" of 0.65% [Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)] and a herd immunity threshold of of 75% yields odds of 1:200.

That's 10x higher than the fatality rate per jump for BASE jumping, never mind commercial aviation.

 

[Ross12]

If the average time since being actively infected is around 2 months in the German study, that's not an incredibly long time IMO - especially if some of those in this group are still actually recovering. It does not lend me to take the opinion that COVID causes "permanent damage". I don't think we have been dealing with this thing long enough to say it does or doesn't, but it bothers me that so many seem to say with certainty that long-term or permanent damage is an inevitability or a proven outcome.

That said, it is definitely worth checking out and I hope to see more similar studies performed as time passes and we can learn more about this thing.

 

[patman52]

It isn't likely to kill 17% of our population over 65.
65 year olds aren't playing football.
I agree it is a bad analogy.
If you are 70 or older you are at serious risk. Of course you are also at serious risk from the flu, from a cold, from lots of stuff.
A man between the ages of 75 and 84 has a 6% chance of dying every year, pre covid.
A man over 84 has a 17% chance of dying every year, pre covid.

no you are not at serious risk from the flu, they are vacines that minimize the common flu virus.
The players can get it and pass it to old people. The players are not they are breathing into thier hands then grabbing other players. So since the 75 YO has a 6 % chance of dying why not make it 6.5%, I mean he eventully is going to die anyway. The nation will save SS funds, and you get to watch football on sunday afternoon. Win win all around!

 

[DarrylS]

Amazing that people are still this ignorant about this thing...

We have or are morphing into a world where peer reviewed science, for some reason, is disdained. The best info we have on COVID-19 is we really do not know where this virus is going and is it changing as time passes. Recently there have been indications that children are also vulnerable...

There is right or wrong, there is a lot of we do not know about the dynamics of this illness.. NY for example, had such a high death rate as they were hit first and hardest, as time went on their death rate went down, because they knew how to handle it better. Nationally medical personnel learned from their mistakes.

What we seem to know is that it is spread by nasal and oral discharges, which lends credence to the premise that a game such as football will spread it easily no matter what they do.

We are seeing in MLB the Marlins still not playing along with other teams.. how will that shake out in their 60 game season?? MLB it not really a contact sport where people are hit and expel their germs all over other players..

Denying it is not a problem and will not impact the NFL is naive and ill informed.. still believe there will not be a NFL season this year.

 

[The Brandon Five]

I only have 2 minutes. Question: We know there's an apparently very small chance of death for an athlete in his 20s through early 40s of death from coronavirus.

We know pretty much about those rates.

But we are hearing more and more about permanent health effects even of moderate cases.

I am for players having the choice to opt out, of course. I am only wondering whether it might be wise to root for your faves to do so.

I don't think there will be a season, and not a long one if there is. But what if there is? what are everyone's thoughts on assessing long-term health risk?

Might have more to do with concern about those around them (family and friends)?

 

[luuked]

I don't think we have been dealing with this thing long enough to say it does or doesn't, but it bothers me that so many seem to say with certainty that long-term or permanent damage is an inevitability or a proven outcome.

I don't think anyone reasonable should ever use the words "inevitable" or -- much worse -- "proven" outcome. That would be idiotic.

Everything in life is about dealing with uncertainty and looking at things in a probabilistic way. Some studies have shown indicators that there is a relevant possibility of severe issues coming down the line. The more data we collect the better (and more significantly) we will be able to describe this from a statistical point of view and know how to quantify that danger.

The question is how to deal with this in the mean time. Be "pessimistic" and try to be as safe as possible to minimize that chance or be "optimistic" and potentially risk severe damage down the line.

The former seems more reasonable to me especially because lung damage is nothing to **** around with.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

How many opt out threads do we have?

You can always opt out of them.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

@RASTAN99, you're using commercial transport category, regularly scheduled aviation (i.e., "fly on an airline" as most understand it) in some of your posts, then posting data tracking all of aviation ("air traffic"). I am not sure whether "air traffic" also includes helicopters, but technically it does.

I'm still amused & entertained at whatever you're pretending to prove regarding incidence of aviation deaths, numbering in the hundreds worldwide per annum, and the incidence of COVID-19 deaths, which at present exceed 150,000 in the U.S. alone, and 600k+ worldwide.

"Numerators and Denominators," a fun game for all ages!

How much did you pay for your ticket on the COVID-19? Or did you get on board a COVID-19 as part of your business travel this year?

Are they still apples and apples?

Very well. How likely are you to transmit tickets on a major airlines by congregating with others who do not have tickets, while still retaining your own tickets?

If X people get on airplanes today, how many will board airplanes one month from now, in the absence of interventions? Will it double? Quadruple? Increase by a factor of thousands, as was the case with COVID deaths in March/April?

(Ironically, during this time only, some of the above guesses might actually make sense. Last quarter, air travel was down 95% in the U.S., making possible a factor of 20 increase just by getting back to "normal.")

But in normal times, we do not have an exponential increase to air traffic in the absence of interventions.

Of course, the question persists (though we dont acknowledge it) whether we in the U.S. will board aircraft at the pre-pandemic rates.

Good popcorn though.

Point?

 

[moosekill]

no you are not at serious risk from the flu, they are vacines that minimize the common flu virus.
The players can get it and pass it to old people. The players are not they are breathing into thier hands then grabbing other players. So since the 75 YO has a 6 % chance of dying why not make it 6.5%, I mean he eventully is going to die anyway. The nation will save SS funds, and you get to watch football on sunday afternoon. Win win all around!

Between 50,000 and 90,000 people died in the us from the flu in flu season 2017, 6 months, with a vaccine, so you have no idea what you are talking about. Yes covid was worse then the flu this year. Much of that was based upon the fact that there was no natural immunity along with no vaccine, and rather than keep elderly in the hospitals, New York city sent the sick elderly back into nursing homes where they infected more of the most at risk and caused a huge percentage of US deaths. The common flu attacks children, especially infants, at a much much greater rate then covid-19 does. When a 75 year old dies from the flu people think it is sad but don't report it in the media. Additionally, unlike the flu, most states as well as the CDC count any death of a person who has Covid as a Covid death. They are upfront about it, but they don't do this with the flu.