Setting Stidham up for Success

[luuked]

The first step in "Setting Up Stidham For Success" is to define "success". After the pre-season, this year or next, some will look at Stidham and decide that 8-8 is surely a successful season. For others, there is no success without winning a Super Bowl. They tell us this every year.

Success in terms of Stidham is if he stays healthy and starts the entire season and does nothing to disqualify himself for next year.

For me the team record really is not that connected to his evaluation. Yeah, of course the record will be worse if he sucks but on the other hand he could be playing reasonably well but we still end up somewhere between 7-9 and 9-7 without a playoff berth.

For him its more important to do things the right way even if that slows him initially down. If there is one place you can't hide bad habits it is the NFL.

 

[Uptown]

This is what many, including myself were speaking of. Makes sense, in theory.
We shall see..(hopefully, re: COVID-19)

NFL Rumors: Why Patriots Feel ‘Better’ About Offensive Potential In 2020

 

[Wordsmyth]

I plan on picking up a StudArm jersey this season. Hoorah!

 

[Vatahala]

I was ready to bash Chris Simms for his opinion on AFC East QBs but he rated Stid 2nd ahead of Sammy and Tua.

So Chris you get a pass but I'm sure you will be hearing from Jet fans.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

I plan on picking up a StudArm jersey this season. Hoorah!

I just bought a autographed Stidham card from etsy.com only 25 bucks.
All the autograph cards I've seen on ebay start at a hundred and go to a G don't know why I didn't invest last season.

Now fair warning last autographed card I purchased was Chad Jackon and Brandon Merriweather.

All my other autographs I got in person or in a pack of cards.

My friend bought me a gronk auto helmet which I still have.
Thinking about selling it for like 4bills I don't dwell on ex patriots too much.

 

[Clonamery]

I just bought a autographed Stidham card from etsy.com only 25 bucks.
All the autograph cards I've seen on ebay start at a hundred and go to a G don't know why I didn't invest last season.

Now fair warning last autographed card I purchased was Chad Jackon and Brandon Merriweather.

All my other autographs I got in person or in a pack of cards.

My friend bought me a gronk auto helmet which I still have.
Thinking about selling it for like 4bills I don't dwell on ex patriots too much.

Hold onto that Gronk helmet until he gets voted into the HOF unless you need the money.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

Hold onto that Gronk helmet until he gets voted into the HOF unless you need the money.

I don’t need the money
I did sell a bent my kids Randy Moss auto card on eBay for 79 but Honesty the shape it was in the corner was like peeling
Perfect condition it was worth about 300

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

I’d want to see at least two to three consistent solid seasons. And when I say consistent solid seasons I mean at the level to which we’ve become accustomed. Eleven wins or more. No big clunkers in any games. Deep into the playoffs, while always looking comfortably at home in the playoffs. All that as a baseline and then rising to the occasion with big games in big games more often than not.

What’s your yardstick?

That is a mighty high bar. If he's not the 3rd best QB in the division in the last 30 years, after Brady & Jim Kelly, he'd be a failure under your criteria.

I would think that a Chad Pennington or Steve Grogan level of success & ability would be declared a success.

If we are expecting to just forget about the last 20 years because nothing needs to change, we are in for a reality check.

 

[sb1]

That is a mighty high bar. If he's not the 3rd best QB in the division in the last 30 years, after Brady & Jim Kelly, he'd be a failure under your criteria.

I would think that a Chad Pennington or Steve Grogan level of success & ability would be declared a success.

If we are expecting to just forget about the last 20 years because nothing needs to change, we are in for a reality check.

This year regardless of record if JS4 looks like he belongs in the NFL over a 16 game slate assuming he is in fact the starter - that’s a big fat W.

 

[captain stone]

This is what many, including myself were speaking of. Makes sense, in theory.
We shall see..(hopefully, re: COVID-19)

NFL Rumors: Why Patriots Feel ‘Better’ About Offensive Potential In 2020

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts...

Most insightful thing about that page was its link to the Russell Wilson to Cleveland for their 2018 #1 overall rumor...

 

[Uptown]

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts...

Most insightful thing about that page was its link to the Russell Wilson to Cleveland for their 2018 #1 overall rumor...

If shuts were shuts and ups were ups...

 

[Vatahala]

Jermaine Wiggins gives Stidham a 5% chance to succeed based on 4th round QB success rate of recent years.

Only 4th rd picks Cousins and Prescott have become starters.

Jermaine Wiggins failed to mention a 6th rounder who turned out Ok.

Is Jermaine the biggest ex-Pat who is still milking his short time in the spotlight.

Hey Mike Eruzione made a career out of it.

Should't they have made a 40th Anniv. Miracle on Ice special this year while Al Michaels is still alive?

 

[Kasmir]

Jermaine Wiggins gives Stidham a 5% chance to succeed based on 4th round QB success rate of recent years.

Only 4th rd picks Cousins and Prescott have become starters.

A priori, sure, I can believe 5%. And for fans and other outsiders, a priori probability is all they objectively have (if they choose to totally discount the 2019 preseason)

But Belichick is not a priori anymore. He's had a year coaching Stidham and evaluating him in practices. Belichick didn't chase Brady or any other free agent QB, and didn't draft a QB.

That suggests that Belichick based on his a posteriori knowledge thinks he lucked out with Stidham, and his a posteriori assessment invalidates Wiggins' a priori one.

What should we believe? Go Bayesian* and believe Belichick knows what he's doing.

*(Bayesian probability is an interpretation of the concept of probability, in which, instead of frequency or propensity of some phenomenon, probability is interpreted as reasonable expectation representing a state of knowledge or as quantification of a personal belief)

 

[Vatahala]

A priori, sure, I can believe 5%. And for fans and other outsiders,a priori probability is all they objectively have (if they choose to totally discount the 2019 preseason)

But Belichick is not a priori anymore. He's had a year coaching Stidham and evaluating him in practices. Belichick didn't chase Brady or any other free agent QB, and didn't draft a QB.

That suggests that Belichick based on his a posteriori knowledge thinks he lucked out with Stidham, and his a posteriori assessment invalidates Wiggins' a priori one.

What should we believe? Go Bayesian* and believe Belichick knows what he's doing.

*(Bayesian probability is an interpretation of the concept of probability, in which, instead of frequency or propensity of some phenomenon, probability is interpreted as reasonable expectation representing a state of knowledge or as quantification of a personal belief)

How about the possibility that its skill not luck in terms of BB and company's track record of developing QBs.

4 ex- Pats QBs made it the starter level, 1 is a HC another is an OC and another is a disgruntled successful media moron.

 

[Kasmir]

How about the possibility that its skill not luck in terms of BB and company's track record of developing QBs.

4 ex- Pats QBs made it the starter level, 1 is a HC another is an OC and another is a disgruntled successful media moron.

Sure, the consideration that Belichick has picked and developed starting QB's successfully can enter into our Bayesian confidence.

But I think the year he had actively coaching and studying Stidham is huge.

Belichick actually was able to basically A/B test Stidham vs Brady using his own defense as a constant, and his study wasn't just passive, he was able to test Stidham by choosing to confront him in practice.

That after that experience Belichick didn't pursue Brady or any other QB strongly suggests that Belichick knows more about Stidham's likely success in his system than all the talking heads put together multiplied by a large number.

If Stidham fails, Captain Stone will be proven right: Belichick would have to be a fool to be acting the way he is.

 

[Uptown]

Slightly OT:

 

[ctpatsfan77]

How about the possibility that its skill not luck in terms of BB and company's track record of developing QBs.

4 ex- Pats QBs made it the starter level, 1 is a HC another is an OC and another is a disgruntled successful media moron.

If you're referring to Chris Simms, he was brought in as a coaching assistant, not as a QB.

And, as an aside, Zac Robinson is also a coach for the Rams, working with Kevin O'Connell.

 

[Patstastic]

A priori, sure, I can believe 5%. And for fans and other outsiders, a priori probability is all they objectively have (if they choose to totally discount the 2019 preseason)

But Belichick is not a priori anymore. He's had a year coaching Stidham and evaluating him in practices. Belichick didn't chase Brady or any other free agent QB, and didn't draft a QB.

That suggests that Belichick based on his a posteriori knowledge thinks he lucked out with Stidham, and his a posteriori assessment invalidates Wiggins' a priori one.

What should we believe? Go Bayesian* and believe Belichick knows what he's doing.

*(Bayesian probability is an interpretation of the concept of probability, in which, instead of frequency or propensity of some phenomenon, probability is interpreted as reasonable expectation representing a state of knowledge or as quantification of a personal belief)

In BB we trust

 

[Joker]

well...Stids can't be as bad as Hugh Millen or Tommy Hodgkins

 

[captain stone]

...That after that experience Belichick didn't pursue Brady or any other QB strongly suggests that Belichick knows more about Stidham's likely success in his system than all the talking heads put together multiplied by a large number.

If Stidham fails, Captain Stone will be proven right: Belichick would have to be a fool to be acting the way he is.

Just to clarify: I was then and still am now OK with Bill not drafting a QB after the top 3 were taken so quickly; I don't feel that Love or Hurts or anybody else subsequently picked will be as good now or better in the future for us than Stid...