"Business As Usual" or "Full Rebuild Mode"?

[mgteich]

We are half-way though Week One of free agency. To me, the situation in at QB and receiver obscures our view of the rest.

DEFENSE AND SPECIAL TEAMS
As I look at the team, I see business as usual on the defense and special teams. Yes, we need help inside at DT and LB. To have such needs so early in the acquisition process isn't very unusual. And yes, as ALWAYS, we could use another stud pass rusher (almost every team could, so this too is "business as usual".

OL and RB
I see business as usual in the OL and RB. Of course, there are question marks on the OL. But, we have 5 starters, plus hopes for Froholdt and Cajuste. As usual, we will sign and draft potential starters. Sure, Cannon might be cut and replaced (with his cap money). Of course, we don't know who will be our best RB in 2020, but we have a good mix to compete, include a 2019 #2 pick. We don't know if Develin is coming back. We already have signed a backup/replacement [more business as usual].
==============
OBVIOUSLY, WE HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO IN THE PASSING GAME

FB/Blocking TE
My guess is that Vitale can be our FB if necessary. Also, if Develin is back, Vitale might serve as blocking TE, or at least as #3 TB/#6 OL.

QB
??? Almost anything is possible

TE
??? LeCosse is an OK #3 TE, competing with the #2 TE for reps. We still need a #1 TE and a #2 TE.

WR
???

We need a #1 WR (a trade is the most likely effort, plus draftees for the future)
Edelman could be the #2 if he wants to stay (if not we need to trade and draft a couple)
Harry will be part of the mix.
Sanu is likely to stay; he could be cut and his money used on a replacement (probably about equal)
Bryd is OK as a Gunner upgrade.

The bottom line is that we only need 5 WR if one is a returners. Otherwise 4 is plenty. [Check the production of #4's and #5's in the past if you want confirmation].

#1 WR ???
#2 WR Edelman and/or draftees
#3/#4/#5 Sanu (or replacement with his cap money), Harry, Byrd, (Meyers), (Gunner)

BOTTOM LINE NEEDS
LB
LB
DT
QB
WR
WR
TE
TE
swing OT

Is this worse than at this time in
2017?
2018?
2019?

Is the situation worse enough to believe that the team will go from 12-4 to being non-competitive for the playoffs? I'm not buying. We have a month before the draft. I expect Belichick to add a half dozen players, many which will no be at all exciting. For example, we could re-sign Calhoun and Newhouse to compete in camp. I expect at least a DL, a LB, an OL and a WR.

Significant trades are unpredictable. Such a trade might happen before, during, or after the draft.
It seems very likely that we will need to trade for a WR and a TE.

 

[iapatsfan]

What do we gain in cap space by cutting Sanu? If it's $1, I'd do it.

 

[TheRainMaker]

What do we gain in cap space by cutting Sanu? If it's $1, I'd do it.

As much as I’d like the Pats to cut their loses, they need veteran WR’s for whoever plays QB. However, he should be on a short leash if he starts grabbing hammy’s or his ankle injury comes back in training camp.

 

[primetime]

Edelman is the #1 WR and he's a pretty good one. I'm guessing Edelman/Sanu/Harry are your top 3 WRs going into the season. Aside from Robby Anderson or a surprise trade there isn't a better player than Sanu on the market, and certainly not for $6.5m. Harry still needs a chance to show what he's made of, you're not going to be a good football team if you're giving up on 1st rounders. They do need a tight end, possibly two. Much bigger need than wide receiver, I think.

Think they still have a top-tier defense that will give them a chance to win every game, and I think people are more down about the team because of the offense than they should be. The secondary is still the best in football. A superstar corner makes a big difference. With a quarterback like Newton they're a playoff team, with Stidham it really depends. They need linebackers, I suspect Patrick Queen or someone like that will fill a slot, they're definitely going defense in the 1st (if they don't trade out). Generally agree with your list of needs.

 

[iapatsfan]

As much as I’d like the Pats to cut their loses, they need veteran WR’s for whoever plays QB. However, he should be on a short leash if he starts grabbing hammy’s in training camp.

They can find a veteran wr to replace Sanu. Preferably one that, unlike Sanu, can beat Belichick in a footrace.

 

[TheRainMaker]

DE and LB are glaring needs.

 

[TheRainMaker]

They can find a veteran wr to replace Sanu. Preferably one that, unlike Sanu, can beat Belichick in a footrace.

Or can average at least 10 yards a catch.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Edelman is the #1 WR and he's a pretty good one

You’re in trouble if he’s your #1. Especially at his stage of his career, he should be your #3 option.

 

[Deus Irae]

"Business As Usual" or "Full Rebuild Mode"?

It looks as if BB wants to keep some areas of strength while having to do major overhauls elsewhere, on a scale we haven's seen since either the late 2000s or the very early 2000s (which of the two seems to be a TBD answer). So I wouldn't call it either thing you chose. It's not a full rebuild, but it's not business as usual, either.

 

[primetime]

You’re in trouble if he’s your #1. Especially at his stage of his career, he should be your #3 option.

He had 100 catches and 11.7 yards per reception last year. His catch rate was in the mid-60s. Those are elite numbers. Edelman's always been a top-10 WR and no one, not Patriots fans nor the rest of the league, have truly appreciated how good he is. The issue isn't Edelman, it's the fact that he was the only option last season other than White and one game of Antonio Brown and a healthy Sanu.

 

[iapatsfan]

He had 100 catches and 11.7 yards per reception last year. His catch rate was in the mid-60s. Those are elite numbers. Edelman's always been a top-10 WR and no one, not Patriots fans nor the rest of the league, have truly appreciated how good he is. The issue isn't Edelman, it's the fact that he was the only option last season other than White and one game of Antonio Brown and a healthy Sanu.

Sanu isn't an option. The Falcons fleeced us on that one. Cut your losses and let him walk.

 

[mgteich]

What do we gain in cap space by cutting Sanu? If it's $1, I'd do it.

1) Cutting a player who is recovering from surgery isn't possible.

2) We should cut Sanu whenever an upgrade is available at an equal price (in BB's evaluation, not yours).

 

[mgteich]

.. They need linebackers, I suspect Patrick Queen or someone like that will fill a slot, they're definitely going defense in the 1st (if they don't trade out). Generally agree with your list of needs.

I agree that LB is most likely at 23. However, I could see us drafting an OT or a DT.

 

[iapatsfan]

1) Cutting a player who is recovering from surgery isn't possible.

2) We should cut Sanu whenever an upgrade is available at an equal price (in BB's evaluation, not yours).

I don't know. BB's "evaluation" was to give up a 2nd round pick for the guy. They may want use mine.

Maybe BB just decided to light the pick on fire instead of making another Brace-Wheatley-Dowling-Wilson-Williams-Richards-Jones-Jackson-Dobson-Cunningham-Dawson type pick. Probably safer to just burn the pick on a bum like Sanu.

 

[Vindicate]

I don't know. BB's "evaluation" was to give up a 2nd round pick for the guy. They may want use mine.

Maybe BB just decided to light the pick on fire instead of making another Brace-Wheatley-Dowling-Wilson-Williams-Richards-Jones-Jackson-Dobson-Cunningham-Dawson type pick. Probably safer to just burn the pick on a bum like Sanu.

Dunno why when I quote you, it's showing this 2nd part I can't see -

but Sanu was a desperation trade. ATL knew this. They used it as leverage, I would imagine.

 

[Boomer B]

I think we are in no mans land. With BB and a good D we won’t tank, but with a hard schedule and huge question marks on O we are unlikely to be a SB contender.

A couple of things Brady did that gets overlooked are going to be a factor this year:

- he was the best ever at his pre-snaps reads, not taking sacks, and putting his line in a good position. I think we’ll see a lot more sacks and negative plays this year.

- he rarely threw picks and didn’t put the D in bad positions. That will likely change this year.

With a tough schedule and improved Bills team it will be a fight for the division. I can see us anywhere from 7-9 to 10-6.

 

[iapatsfan]

I think we are in no mans land. With BB and a good D we won’t tank, but with a hard schedule and huge question marks on O we are unlikely to be a SB contender.

A couple of things Brady did that gets overlooked are going to be a factor this year:

- he was the best ever at his pre-snaps reads, not taking sacks, and putting his line in a good position. I think we’ll see a lot more sacks and negative plays this year.

- he rarely threw picks and didn’t put the D in bad positions. That will likely change this year.

With a tough schedule and improved Bills team it will be a fight for the division. I can see us anywhere from 7-9 to 10-6.

Look at the 2020 opponents. There is no way you see 7 wins there.

 

[primetime]

Sanu isn't an option. The Falcons fleeced us on that one. Cut your losses and let him walk.

Give me a break. I get the idea that the guy's a convenient scapegoat for last year's offensive struggles, but the offense sucked before he got there and he was acquired midseason then got hurt, why should anyone have been surprised he didn't set the world on fire?

The guy's been a 60/750/5 guy his entire career with multiple quarterbacks and offensive systems and was on pace for the best season of his career after the Ravens game, when he suffered a bad injury.

On the open market, his level of consistent production would cost twice as much as he's going to get paid next year. Point to a single remaining free agent who could be counted on for 60 catches next year who would cost $6.5m.I'll wait.

The 2nd round pick isn't coming back whether he's on the roster next year or not, so cutting him would be an incredibly stupid move.

 

[ausbacker]

One of the things that seems glaringly obvious is it appears fans believe the Patriots will be playing the same complicated offensive gameplan Brady commanded (thus the sky is falling in). Whatever Stidham's strengths are, you can bet your bottom dollar McDaniels will tailor a scheme toward them.

 

[primetime]

One of the things that seems glaringly obvious is it appears fans believe the Patriots will be playing the same complicated offensive gameplan Brady commanded (thus the sky is falling in). Whatever Stidham's strengths are, you can bet your bottom dollar McDaniels will tailor a scheme toward them.

It's not entirely fair to call it complex, but the Patriots offense was based entirely around Brady's feel for the game. Receivers needed to see the game the way Brady did or it didn't work. The offense will necessarily be different.