Coronavirus RESPECTFUL Discussion Only! (Mod edit: Closed)

[BTTA]

They goddamn better leave the casinos open, that’s all I have to say.

We're all living in one big one, together, now. Isn't that enough excitement for you?

 

[RobertWeathers]

1) to the extent that’s true, it’s assuming you can get treatment if you need it. If you can’t it is going to be higher. And as we can see from Italy, if this really takes hold then a lot of people won’t be able to get treatment. (Though I suppose if it is like Italy they’ll be giving the healthy under 50s treatment and leaving other to die , so there is that).
2) because people will be blocked from effective hospital access because hospitals will be full of covid-19 patients people without covid-19 (including young people) are going to die more often than baseline.

Which is why I qualified my response which pertained to healthy people under 50.

I agree with your other points.

 

[RobertWeathers]

They goddamn better leave the casinos open, that’s all I have to say.

They'll stay open but for the elderly, chainsmokers who sit at the slots for 6hrs not sure that is a smart place to be.

 

[BTTA]

Before you put too much stock in The NY Times editorial pages, be aware that one of the people who runs those pages thought 500 million divided by 327 million equals roughly 1 million.

Yeah, that's a great reason to completely discount everything researched and written by a highly educated, globally-aware, massively experienced, intensely focused large group of people who have all reached a peak destination in their field.

 

[primetime]

"But the most straightforward and compelling evidence that the true case fatality rate of SARS-CoV-2 is well under 1 percent comes not from statistical trends and methodological massage, but from data from the Diamond Princess cruise outbreak and subsequent quarantine off the coast of Japan.

A quarantined boat is an ideal—if unfortunate—natural laboratory to study a virus. Many variables normally impossible to control are controlled. We know that all but one patient boarded the boat without the virus. We know that the other passengers were healthy enough to travel. We know their whereabouts and exposures."

That the fatality rate is much higher for older people (especially 70 plus) is what pulls the odds up to .01%

As of February 20, tests of most of the 3,711 people aboard the Diamond Princess confirmed that 634, or 17 percent, had the virus; 328 of them did not have symptoms at the time of diagnosis. Of those with symptoms, the fatality ratio was 1.9 percent, Russell and colleagues calculate. Of all infected, that ratio was 0.91 percent. Those 70 and older were most vulnerable, with an overall fatality ratio of about 7.3 percent.

I'm not sure you know how to do math. On that cruise ship there's a 1 percent fatality rate (as of February 20, couldn't find more recent data) among those infected, rising to over 7 for the elderly. And that was in a controlled environment where testing was carried out early and cases were quarantined in their room and eventually evacuated for medical care. It's not representative of the rate in the general US population, where testing is largely unavailable and the healthcare system may end up totally overwhelmed.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Orange man bad

This isn't about Trump.

 

[Clonamery]

Are you saying the US Government and it's policies and systems is inferior to the Chinese Government? A government that didn't do a f-ing thing about this until it was already an epidemic?

Too early to tell to be honest. The Federal bureaucracy (CDC)involved with who could be tested early on was/is mind boggling.

 

[XLIX]

The 2009 H1N1 infected about 20% of the population. This is more contagious than that so let’s say (to be conservative) this infects 30% of the population.

The US population is 330mil, so that would be 99mil people.

If the overall death rate is 1%, that’s 990,000 dead. Even at 0.5% (which would be very optimistic) that’s 495,000 dead.

Let’s revisit this post in 6 months, shall we?

 

[Clonamery]

This isn't about Trump.

Yes and no.

 

[primetime]

Too early to tell to be honest. The Federal bureaucracy (CDC)involved with who could be tested early on was/is mind boggling.

Your numbers can't look bad if you can't actually confirm anyone has the disease!

 

[SHOWTIME15]

What the hell does a book about Obama no one's ever heard of have to do with Orange Clown? Go eat your corn pops. And don't forget to brush your teeth!

What does it say about Obama that his hand-picked successor lost to said Orange Clown?

 

[RobertWeathers]

Too early to tell to be honest. The Federal bureaucracy (CDC)involved with who could be tested early on was/is mind boggling.

Yes and no.

In general, governments in general are not configured and agile enough to respond to pandemics. Especially for a country as big and as mobile as ours.

There is no question Trump, his administration, the CDC, etc were unprepared for this. The messaging, policies, tests, etc.

But there is no f-ing way in hell the Chinese government- knowingly hid this from the world and allowed its citizens to exit the country.

Instead of apologizing to the world they are blaming the US Army. Please.

 

[PP2]

Are you saying the US Government and it's policies and systems is inferior to the Chinese Government? A government that didn't do a f-ing thing about this until it was already an epidemic?

Local and State governments are way ahead on this thing and taking initiatives on their own to address this pandemic, such as Cuomo in NY. Kudos to them.

But if you're talking the federal government, e.g., from the very top, then no, we don't have leadership or anyone taking initiative, only a very misleading oval office address from the other night that was flat out full of lies.

 

[Clonamery]

In general, governments in general are not configured and agile enough to respond to pandemics. Especially for a country as big and as mobile as ours.

There is no question Trump, his administration, the CDC, etc were unprepared for this. The messaging, policies, tests, etc.

But there is no f-ing way in hell the Chinese government- knowingly hid this from the world and allowed its citizens to exit the country.

Instead of apologizing to the world they are blaming the US Army. Please.

Utter nonsense from one official in China being defensive, ok. Not quite “they.”

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Utter nonsense from one official in China being defensive, ok. Not quite “they.”

Yes, because China allows its officials to say anything not approved by their leaders

 

[BTTA]

In general, governments in general are not configured and agile enough to respond to pandemics. Especially for a country as big and as mobile as ours.

There is no question Trump, his administration, the CDC, etc were unprepared for this. The messaging, policies, tests, etc.

But there is no f-ing way in hell the Chinese government- knowingly hid this from the world and allowed its citizens to exit the country.

Instead of apologizing to the world they are blaming the US Army. Please.

After having his arm twisted in public, the head of the CDC has committed that every American can get tested for free. If we can get the word out about this, it will go a long way toward slowing the spread.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/03/13/coronavirus-testing-katie-porter/

 

[primetime]

I mean, China and the US both handled this with a bunch of misinformation and outright lies, but China's public health interventions are likely to be much more effective than the US. That's in part because they put an entire region under military quarantine, but also because they set up a huge fever clinic system and tested people en masse.

 

[XLIX]

Utter nonsense from one official in China being defensive, ok. Not quite “they.”

Are you kidding? Are you really this clueless about how the Chinese government operates???

 

[BTTA]

In general, governments in general are not configured and agile enough to respond to pandemics. Especially for a country as big and as mobile as ours.

There is no question Trump, his administration, the CDC, etc were unprepared for this. The messaging, policies, tests, etc.

But there is no f-ing way in hell the Chinese government- knowingly hid this from the world and allowed its citizens to exit the country.

Instead of apologizing to the world they are blaming the US Army. Please.

There's absolutely nothing stopping us from having a government that can be agile, focused, and incredibly responsive to pandemics. We know how to do it. It is just a matter of will.

 

[primetime]

After having his arm twisted in public, the head of the CDC has committed that every American can get tested for free. If we can get the word out about this, it will go a long way toward slowing the spread.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/03/13/coronavirus-testing-katie-porter/

You can get testing for free, assuming availability of test kits. Most localities still can't test anyone, let alone everyone. But at least it's free.