Is this the cliff that Max Kellerman has been talking about? Or are the receivers just that bad?

[Biffins]

Forgive me if we have other threads discussing this but I’ve been thinking about it all day.
I’ve been watching patriots football since I was 7, so all of Brady’s career and I’ve never seen him flustered in the pocket consistently like he is now. He never used to throw the ball in the dirt every other play or consistently throw really bad interceptions. We hold Brady to a high standard because he is the GOAT, I’ve always said if Tom thinks he’s going off a cliff and can’t play at a high level anymore, that’s when he will hang em up. Remember 2013 when he was throwing to Kenbrell Thompkins, Aaron Dobson and Austin collie? It seems like that offense put up better numbers. Remember 2015 when the offensive line gave him almost no time at all in the afc championship? In a hostile environment and we still had a chance to win in the end. It just seems like that magic is gone, I may be wrong and I hope I am wrong but Brady just looks miserable out there.

At this point if Patriots win ugly all the way and win the Superbowl, people would still call it Cliff!! The expectations are so sky high that anything short of complete perfection is Cliff!!

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I'd say the Bears, Cards, Redskins, Jags, Steelers, Bengals, Dolphins, Bills, and maybe the Browns are as bad or worse. Not to mention the fact that last year's TEs were nearly as bad as this year regarding offensive production - of course they were much better blockers. The lack of adequate blocking is the real issue.

I’ll take your word re: the actual production these teams have had.

Are we factoring in injuries here? It would make this a different discussion but just curious. Some of these teams have clearly better TEs than the Pats but have injuries at the position. I’ll change my initial guess to: the Patriots have one of the very worst TE depth charts in the NFL.

 

[venecol]

I’ll take your word re: the actual production these teams have had.

Are we factoring in injuries here? It would make this a different discussion but just curious. Some of these teams have clearly better TEs than the Pats but have injuries at the position. I’ll change my initial guess to: the Patriots have one of the very worst TE depth charts in the NFL.

Thought I heard in the broadcast that NEP are last in TE production.

 

[skinnydog]

Hyperbole isn't helpful. There are probably eight or nine teams with TEs as bad or worse.

Really? Our best TE is 38 and shows his age out there. last year we had two of the best blocking TEs and now we have two of the worst. I like Watson, but remember he was basically retired this offseason. There's a reason for that.

 

[TomPatriot]

Hard to tell because the entire offense has problems right now. I'd say he is slightly worse, but I'd still take him over any QB when the game is on the line.

 

[dannydyn]

Talk to me when we're 6-6, not 10-2.

FWIW, we're more 10-2 because of the defense, and not as much as the offense. If we had a middle of the road defense, it is very likely we'd be 6-6.

 

[Kontradiction]

For some crazy reason, I find Number 2 saying the same thing over and over again pretty amusing.

No way. We got you. Not a chance.

 

[maust]

I’ve been watching patriots football since I was 7...

You've had a nice 8 year viewing run. So at least there's that, which is nice

 

[everlong]

1. It's definitely not the cliff. It definitely isn't 2007 either both in terms of Brady's level of play and the talent around him. It's a combination of everything. Looking for a single silver bullet if the mediot way.

2. Most of his bad throws he's simply getting rid of it. I'm talking about the ones in the dirt or into the bench. There are a lot of throws simply a few degrees off however. A lot of these were because of protection until Wynn came back. Some are definitely because the receivers aren't where they're supposed to be. Some have been weather related. Some however are directly on Tom. We're talking degrees here. There's been a few where the ball didn't lead the receiver and instead handcuffed him. Or was just high making what was a catch in stride now a tough catch. Result, a lot of drops. Which is partially on the receivers and partially on Tom. The thing that has made Tom and Joe one and two is smarts and accuracy. Maybe it's an injury, maybe it's age or mechanics.

3. Teams aren't honoring play action because the run game hasn't been effective. That fact they fell behind big to both Baltimore and Houston only made this worse.

4. When we drafted Harry I said in the draft forum I question his ability to separate. A lot of people took the Nick Casario approach that speed and separation are overrated in the NFL. For what they do I was advocating for Andy Isabella who is starting to come into his own. For this offense I think he was the superior fit.

5. Playing off the theme of #4 I think Harry and Sanu are being misused. They're trying to use them as big slot receivers. Look at Harry's TD. I think they need to play them wide to open up the field. Also cutting Gordon now looks like a mistake and yes I know there were issues behind the scenes there.

6. Play calling. Is it just me or overall does it not seem unimaginative? First and goal, run it into the line even though the Texans have a big unit out there. Minimal gain. Second down, rollout to Myers. Why not use Harry or Sanu there to use their height throwing it above the DBs head. 3rd down from the 5 and Houston rolls out 7 DBs and nobody can get open. Other than some of the trick plays the play calling had been off. They'll also either run or pass their way down the field and instead of rolling with what got them there JM suddenly gets cute and calls the opposite.

7. Flow. Maybe #6 can be explained a bit by the offense just never getting into a flow. Every time they do seem to get moving there's either a drop, an OL getting a penalty or getting bull rushed into Brady.

8. The good news. I think all of these things are solvable by small improvements. The OL you already see them building continuity. If they're 5% better by then end of the year that's huge. Brady once he feels it will improve. The big thing is they need that 3rd threat they can feed. Don't care if it's Dorsette, Harry or Sanu but they need a 3rd player who can consistently win. I think they may need to manufacture that with stack formations, bubble screens, etc. I would like to see Tom throw it up deep to Harry and Sanu more often like Rodgers, Mahomes, Wilson and others do to their big receivers. Rodgers threw a bunch of ducks up high for TDs this last weekend.

 

[Taco]

Kellerman needs to jump off a cliff. He's had the same cliff theory for 5 years now.

 

[Scotty]

Think a lot of similar points. This year offence is not the best , put it down to individual players or poor player selection in FA or draft. This could just be a bad year. I believe this team can win in the playoffs but it is maybe not such a formality or if the GOAT will pull the rabbit out of the hat.
Like it or not but this year is maybe a wake up call for the year(s) to come

 

[sb1]

When Brady completely loses his arm strength like Fivehead did then that’s the end. I don’t see that happening yet.

 

[StairwayToSe7en]

Max Kellerman also said that Conor McGregor literally wouldn't land a single punch against Floyd Mayweather.

I don't know of anyone who was more wrong about that particular fight, and boxing is his wheelhouse.

It's best to ignore him.

 

[brdmaverick]

The CLIFF Max Kellerman is talking about DOES NOT EXIST.

The CLIFF Max Kellerman was talking about what predicted to happen before his latest three Super Bowl victories (and MVP season).

 

[brdmaverick]

If you replaced the entire secondary except one player, and all the LBers would the defense be good?

Kind of what they did to the WR and TE position.

But they did that in 2007 and that seemed to work out ok?

i'm obviously just having fun with you..........of course randy, welker, and stallworth are better than gabriel, caldwell, and c.jackson

 

[Milloymam]

I have never understood why Max has such hatred towards Tom and all things Patriot related.

 

[mgteich]

LeCosse is probably close to average as a #2 TE. He can block. He has been injured.
Obviously, we need a starting TE for 2020. Apparently, Belichick was surprised by Gronk's retirement and decided to make do with Watson, LeCosse and Izzo.

Josh and Brady have a month to work things out, but I think that there is really only one place to look for major improvement: WR. If there is none, then we are unlikely to be in AFC title game.

Really? Our best TE is 38 and shows his age out there. last year we had two of the best blocking TEs and now we have two of the worst. I like Watson, but remember he was basically retired this offseason. There's a reason for that.

 

[BradyFTW!]

The issue I have with this either/or is that the first part of it--the receivers being bad--is making the second part of it pretty much impossible to evaluate at all. The premise itself is a conversation-ender.

If Brady had production identical to his 2006 season right now, people would be claiming he was washed up in exactly the same way some are suggesting now. But we know for a fact that 2006 Brady wasn't washed up. He was just throwing to ****ty receivers in an offense whose running game scared nobody. As soon as any part of that was corrected, the very next season he had a historically incredible year.

So... sure, maybe Brady has fallen off the cliff. He's old, it's possible. I do think at a minimum he's distinctly in his post-prime. But there's a huge difference between post-prime and cliff, and the state of our receivers makes it so we can't really have an intelligent discussion at all on where he lands in that range.

 

[STUB STUB]

Playing off the theme of #4 I think Harry and Sanu are being misused. They're trying to use them as big slot receivers. Look at Harry's TD. I think they need to play them wide to open up the field.

Agreed. Harry's whole game is winning contested jump balls. Tom has never been one to take those risks very often (sans a few spectacularly useless Matthew Slater deep balls). Moss could out-run DBs, Gronk could out-stretch LBs, Edelman can out-cut nickel backs, White can out-slip defensive ends, let's see if Harry can out-jump some 2nd cornerbacks. Otherwise, they are incredibly predictable and easily stopped.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

1. It's definitely not the cliff. It definitely isn't 2007 either both in terms of Brady's level of play and the talent around him. It's a combination of everything. Looking for a single silver bullet if the mediot way.

2. Most of his bad throws he's simply getting rid of it. I'm talking about the ones in the dirt or into the bench. There are a lot of throws simply a few degrees off however. A lot of these were because of protection until Wynn came back. Some are definitely because the receivers aren't where they're supposed to be. Some have been weather related. Some however are directly on Tom. We're talking degrees here. There's been a few where the ball didn't lead the receiver and instead handcuffed him. Or was just high making what was a catch in stride now a tough catch. Result, a lot of drops. Which is partially on the receivers and partially on Tom. The thing that has made Tom and Joe one and two is smarts and accuracy. Maybe it's an injury, maybe it's age or mechanics.

3. Teams aren't honoring play action because the run game hasn't been effective. That fact they fell behind big to both Baltimore and Houston only made this worse.

4. When we drafted Harry I said in the draft forum I question his ability to separate. A lot of people took the Nick Casario approach that speed and separation are overrated in the NFL. For what they do I was advocating for Andy Isabella who is starting to come into his own. For this offense I think he was the superior fit.

5. Playing off the theme of #4 I think Harry and Sanu are being misused. They're trying to use them as big slot receivers. Look at Harry's TD. I think they need to play them wide to open up the field. Also cutting Gordon now looks like a mistake and yes I know there were issues behind the scenes there.

6. Play calling. Is it just me or overall does it not seem unimaginative? First and goal, run it into the line even though the Texans have a big unit out there. Minimal gain. Second down, rollout to Myers. Why not use Harry or Sanu there to use their height throwing it above the DBs head. 3rd down from the 5 and Houston rolls out 7 DBs and nobody can get open. Other than some of the trick plays the play calling had been off. They'll also either run or pass their way down the field and instead of rolling with what got them there JM suddenly gets cute and calls the opposite.

7. Flow. Maybe #6 can be explained a bit by the offense just never getting into a flow. Every time they do seem to get moving there's either a drop, an OL getting a penalty or getting bull rushed into Brady.

8. The good news. I think all of these things are solvable by small improvements. The OL you already see them building continuity. If they're 5% better by then end of the year that's huge. Brady once he feels it will improve. The big thing is they need that 3rd threat they can feed. Don't care if it's Dorsette, Harry or Sanu but they need a 3rd player who can consistently win. I think they may need to manufacture that with stack formations, bubble screens, etc. I would like to see Tom throw it up deep to Harry and Sanu more often like Rodgers, Mahomes, Wilson and others do to their big receivers. Rodgers threw a bunch of ducks up high for TDs this last weekend.

Josh really is terrible when it comes to basic red zone concepts, and I’ve been complaining about this for years. What’s the point of getting big receivers like Sanu and Harry when you’re not even going to attempt designed isolation pass inside the five yard line? He also failed to come up with any plays with Gordon, who was tremendously strong and had amazing leaping ability...I literally cannot recall a single time that advantage was used close to the goal line. How about putting Burkhead and White in the backfield for once down there? Their 4 WR concepts are comically bad, as they either run patterns that Brady will never attempt to throw into, or they basically all jam each other in the middle of the field. Often LaCosse, Watson, and/ or Dorsett are used there, none of whom will get a target from Brady unless they are completely uncovered.