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Criticizing Belichick the GM


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Not sure why you have to resort to namecalling in a discussion where people are simply exchanging differing opinions. This is actually a very good discussion. It's too bad you feel a need to inject your personal baggage.

Regarding your question, I think Icy Patriot hit the nail on the head.
.

The incredible irony of your post is noted.
 
BB has done a great job replacing lost talent that he determined were not worth the money they commanded. It seemed like most Pats players who left in the early dynasty years rarely lived up to expectations on their new teams so letting them go was deemed "brilliant". That has not been the case the last several years as many Pats players have played well (Logan Ryan, Chandler Jones, Trey Flowers) in their new homes. It's his ability to find new players or strategies to fill the new holes and not miss a beat. I cannot tell if it is him as a coach or him as a GM but the team almost always seems prepared to compete with any challengers.
 
Sorry but to most reasonable people just "playing in the league" a few years after being a second round pick makes you a bust. It also makes you a bad pick when you're "just playing in the league" for another team, especially when you're traded from the team that drafted you in your second training camp.

Studies I've seen show that 40% of 1st Round picks are busts, and another 20% are JAGs. Numbers for the 2nd round have to be higher still.

100% of the arguments I've seen presented here about Bill the GM are bogus because none of them provide any useful comparisons to other teams, i.e. fail to provide a baseline for expectations. Sorry, but if you're spouting off about how bad Bill is without knowing whether he's done better or worse than the NFL comps, you're just bloviating. The folks here praising Bill without presenting comps are little better, but at least they have Occam on their side: he must be doing something right.

I tried researching this subject myself, but it's not easy. A few years ago the folks at ProFootball Reference had some interesting essays using their Approximate Value measure, but I could find no tool of any kind that permits assessment of the success of a draft for a team vs its potential success. It kind of surprising that no one has created such a useful tool (at least publicly, it's possible some NFL teams have done so privately).

One interesting article pointed out that part of the reason for success of player picked in higher rounds was very much influenced by play time they automatically receive vs lower round picks or free agents. It's horrible to think that Brady with his terrible perceived pedigree might have never made it in the NFL if he had been drafted by the wrong team and never given a chance.

Another example of wildly improbable arguments presented here is that Belichick somehow can't draft 2nd round defensive backs but is nonetheless adept at picking out low round and free agent DB prospects. What mechanism could be contrived to explain that? Occam's Razor instead suggests that folks just have no clue what expectation for success to have for the limited number of 2nd round trials he's had, and are attributing to mystic numerology what is more rationally explained by probability, i.e. variance with a small sample size.

Further thought: some team should do this as a Data Science project: test an ensemble of draft strategies using the AV to create some sort of value function(s), with the inputs being every quantity known for all those players at the time they were drafted. Teams' actual draft picks could then be scored against the best strategies.
 
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BB the GM is excellent at identifying where the game is headed so that he can acquire players to take advantages of those trends. No easy task in the salary cap era. Many teams just load up on doing what they do and hoping that to be good enough.

Not sure he is great at any of the 'Drafting/Contract negotiations/Player retention/etc.' you list - but he is excellent at combining them together and working the mid and lower 3rd of the roster to exploit weaknesses in others.

Sure Brady has covered up some of his weaknesses ... that can be said.

However - I think he knows Brady covers his weaknesses which allows him to gamble on player acquisition more than others. Not sure other coaches realize how to exploit their great players to shore up weaknesses that exist on their team.

I also think he is not vain in protecting any perceived reputation.
He moves on from his mistakes like they never existed in the first place ... and quickly.

The data indicates that BB is on par with other GMs with regards to the draft, but that he hits at about the same rate while having more picks. While dispelling the "BB drafts great!" myth, it is also a great argument about BB's ability to use the comp pick system, as well as about why he's so willing to trade down and into later years. I think this is one of several examples of why I think people on both sides of this debate miss the forest for the trees.

BB's free agency is obviously a very mixed bag. That's true at both the high and low ends. Anyone who wants to argue against that need only look at the list of free agent signings during BB's tenure. And a difficulty in being uber-consistent in FA is not some singular failure, as every GM is going to be inconsistent in FA, just as they'll be inconsistent in the draft. What happens here is that the homers ignore or minimize the Jordan Matthews/Donald Jones/Albert Haynesworth signings, while the eeyores will do the same with a Trent Brown or a Gilmore signing.

To me, UDFA is a thicker discussion, which needs to take into account situational falls (i.e. J.C. Jackson), level of play, overall success in the league, etc...) and is really worthy of it's own thread, so I'll leave it aside for the moment. If someone on either homer/eeyore side feels the need to argue it, they are more than welcome to do so.

As for the question I posed, I would argue, and many here have, and as you noted, that BB's greatest strength as a GM is also one that's sort of an umbrella strength, but one that flows in the opposite direction from your first offering (In other words, it's BB the GM following BB the coach, and not the other way around). And that is that he's willing to cut bait as fast as anyone, when it comes to a failed move/decision.

And the reason that I find that significant is that it's an inherent acknowledgment that he makes a lot of failed moves/decisions. Why is that significant to me? Because the homers mostly ignore the failure aspect, and the Eeyores mostly ignore the willingness to cut bait aspect.

Lastly, I've made the Brady point often, and I think that, like most other areas of BB the GM, it has a +/- feature to it, in terms of how we should assess credit/"blame". Having the G.O.A.T. to bail you out allows you to take risks you would never do under ordinary circumstances. On the other hand, BB's taken advantage of that to the tune of 9 SB visits and 6 SB wins, which is mighty damned impressive.

And that's really my point when it comes to the BB the GM threads. It's not a black and white issue, and one can make strong arguments AND rebuttals to any reasonable position taken in a "pro" or "con" direction. Unfortunately, rather than work the question from those types of reasonable positions, we tend to get either "BB sucks!" or

I'm always frustrated by the fans that whine about Belichick the GM when he is undoubtedly one of the best TEAM BUILDERS in all sports. This article captures his greatness.

The notion that Belichick the GM hurts Belichick the head coach is utterly preposterous.

when there's no question that BB does not suck as a GM, and there's also no question that, at times, BB the GM has, absolutely, hurt BB the coach.
 
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I’m most disappointed at last years draft missing out on Lamar Jackson. Patriots were very very high on him, yet passed on him not once but TWICE. We would have been set up for the next ten years post Brady because Jackson is a stud. That was our future franchise QB.

With real speculation of Brady either leaving or retiring, we need to find that next QB to keep our head above water, Stidham is NOT the answer.

Hindsight is 20-20 but it realistically could and should have happened given Brady’s age.

Bwahahahahahaha too funny. First, if the Patriots were that high on Jackson, they would have drafted him with the multiple opportunities. They weren't. He requires a total rebuilt system to match his skillset. That is not something the Pats were willing to do. The Pats draft people who FIT their system. They do not design a system around a rookie. You can't just plug a player like that into Tom's position and have him fit. This is NOT FRIKIN MADDEN.

Second, if we did draft him, you would have no idea who or what he is because HE WOULD RIDE THE BENCH. Ya, ya, we would have clearly seen it in pre-season. Ummmmmm STIDHAM WAS FANTASTIC IN PRE-SEASON.

Third, you have no clue if Stidham is the answer or not. He threw a pick-six in garbage time and now he is done with the Pats? What??????? He is a frikin rookie. Jeez, some of you are so ridiculous and incorrigible.
 
The data indicates that BB is on par with other GMs with regards to the draft, but that he hits at about the same rate while having more picks. While dispelling the "BB drafts great!" myth, it is also a great argument about BB's ability to use the comp pick system, as well as about why he's so willing to trade down and into later years. I think this is one of several examples of why I think people on both sides of this debate miss the forest for the trees.

BB's free agency is obviously a very mixed bag. That's true at both the high and low ends. Anyone who wants to argue against that need only look at the list of free agent signings during BB's tenure. And a difficulty in being uber-consistent in FA is not some singular failure, as every GM is going to be inconsistent in FA, just as they'll be inconsistent in the draft. What happens here is that the homers ignore or minimize the Jordan Matthews/Donald Jones/Albert Haynesworth signings, while the eeyores will do the same with a KVN or a Gilmore signing.

To me, UDFA is a thicker discussion, which needs to take into account situational falls (i.e. J.C. Jackson), level of play, overall success in the league, etc...) and is really worthy of it's own thread, so I'll leave it aside for the moment. If someone on either homer/eeyore side feels the need to argue it, they are more than welcome to do so.

As for the question I posed, I would argue, and many here have, and as you noted, that BB's greatest strength as a GM is also one that's sort of an umbrella strength, but one that flows in the opposite direction from your first offering (In other words, it's BB the GM following BB the coach, and not the other way around). And that is that he's willing to cut bait as fast as anyone, when it comes to a failed move/decision.

And the reason that I find that significant is that it's an inherent acknowledgment that he makes a lot of failed moves/decisions. Why is that significant to me? Because the homers mostly ignore the failure aspect, and the Eeyores mostly ignore the willingness to cut bait aspect.

Lastly, I've made the Brady point often, and I think that, like most other areas of BB the GM, it has a +/- feature to it, in terms of how we should assess credit/"blame". Having the G.O.A.T. to bail you out allows you to take risks you would never do under ordinary circumstances. On the other hand, BB's taken advantage of that to the tune of 9 SB visits and 6 SB wins, which is mighty damned impressive.

And that's really my point when it comes to the BB the GM threads. It's not a black and white issue, and one can make strong arguments AND rebuttals to any reasonable position taken in a "pro" or "con" direction. Unfortunately, rather than work the question from those types of reasonable positions, we tend to get either "BB sucks!" or when there's no question that BB does not suck as a GM, and there's also no question that, at times, BB the GM has, absolutely, hurt BB the coach.

BB's greatest strength, IMHO, is his willingness to consistently move on from individual players when there is an opportunity to improve a position group. We're seeing it this year at a level that is unprecedented in terms of the high profiles of the guys let go on almost a weekly basis, yet the team is still winning. It's interesting to watch old friend Pete Carroll do the same thing in Seattle.

That extends to front office execs, assistant coaches and and coordinators. The engine keeps running as his mentees take positions of greater responsibility with mixed results elsewhere.

I am very impressed with how Patriots' front office guys who leave do well in stabilizing other franchises, for a time. Atlanta got off script by overspending on veterans, but that happens when you make the Super Bowl and fall in love with the guys who got you there.

Your point about Tom Brady giving BB the GM the freedom to let high profile players go is entirely valid. But so is the fact that BB the Head Coach almost never makes a mistake in preparation or game management. I'd argue that BB the Head Coach bails out BB the GM as frequently if not more so than Brady does.
 
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Lamar Jackson would be a JAG running the offensive system the Pats run.
Bwahahahahahaha too funny. First, if the Patriots were that high on Jackson, they would have drafted him with the multiple opportunities. They weren't. He requires a total rebuilt system to match his skillset. That is not something the Pats were willing to do. The Pats draft people who FIT their system. They do not design a system around a rookie. You can't just plug a player like that into Tom's position and have him fit. This is NOT FRIKIN MADDEN.

Second, if we did draft him, you would have no idea who or what he is because HE WOULD RIDE THE BENCH. Ya, ya, we would have clearly seen it in pre-season. Ummmmmm STIDHAM WAS FANTASTIC IN PRE-SEASON.

Third, you have no clue if Stidham is the answer or not. He threw a pick-six in garbage time and now he is done with the Pats? What??????? He is a frikin rookie. Jeez, some of you are so ridiculous and incorrigible.



If I were someone making this claim I'd claim ignorance when it comes to college football.

I mean how embarrassing to NOT know what type of system the NEP run. I mean that would be a rough scene. Ya know, being a fan of the team & all?
Carry on. 99.9% of the board had no idea either.
 
Studies I've seen show that 40% of 1st Round picks are busts, and another 20% are JAGs. Numbers for the 2nd round have to be higher still.

100% of the arguments I've seen presented here about Bill the GM are bogus because none of them provide any useful comparisons to other teams, i.e. fail to provide a baseline for expectations. Sorry, but if you're spouting off about how bad Bill is without knowing whether he's done better or worse than the NFL comps, you're just bloviating. The folks here praising Bill without presenting comps are little better, but at least they have Occam on their side: he must be doing something right.

I tried researching this subject myself, but it's not easy. A few years ago the folks at ProFootball Reference had some interesting essays using their Approximate Value measure, but I could find no tool of any kind that permits assessment of the success of a draft for a team vs its potential success. It kind of surprising that no one has created such a useful tool (at least publicly, it's possible some NFL teams have done so privately).

One interesting article pointed out that part of the reason for success of player picked in higher rounds was very much influenced by play time they automatically receive vs lower round picks or free agents. It's horrible to think that Brady with his terrible perceived pedigree might have never made it in the NFL if he had been drafted by the wrong team and never given a chance.

Another example of wildly improbable arguments presented here is that Belichick somehow can't draft 2nd round defensive backs but is nonetheless adept at picking out low round and free agent DB prospects. What mechanism could be contrived to explain that? Occam's Razor instead suggests that folks just have no clue what expectation for success to have for the limited number of 2nd round trials he's had, and are attributing to mystic numerology what is more rationally explained by probability, i.e. variance with a small sample size.

Further thought: some team should do this as a Data Science project: test an ensemble of draft strategies using the AV to create some sort of value function(s), with the inputs being every quantity known for all those players at the time they were drafted. Teams' actual draft picks could then be scored against the best strategies.
I never said Bill was a bad GM. I basically said a lot of people on here won’t call a bust a bust if Bill drafted him.
 
BB's greatest strength is his willingness to consistently move on

I'm that way too
I'll be over Vinatieri soon
Probably
 
Your point about Tom Brady giving BB the GM the freedom to let high profile players go is entirely valid. But so is the fact that BB the Head Coach almost never makes a mistake in preparation or game management. I'd argue that BB the Head Coach bails out BB the GM as frequently if not more so that Brady does.


I'm not sure about the frequency issue, but your point is an excellent one. We've talked about it many times in the past on this forum, and I had no business forgetting about it, so thanks for bringing it into the discussion. We'll probably never have a better example of it than BB getting that 2011 defense to (almost) look serviceable. Whether it was Brady, or BB, who "got" that 2011 squad to the SB, it was a remarkable job of coaching up that defensive dumpster fire into something that could at least give a couple of helpful showings in the playoffs.
 
If someone can provide a fact based argument that BB isn’t a great GM, I’d love to read it.

Facepalm.gif
 
I never said Bill was a bad GM. I basically said a lot of people on here won’t call a bust a bust if Bill drafted him.

But Belichick the GM will. People here are quick to pull the trigger on draft picks or undrafted rookie free agents. BB the GM gives those guys the chance to develop as much because the cost is so low with the current CBA terms for rookies.
 
But Belichick the GM will. People here are quick to pull the trigger on draft picks or undrafted rookie free agents. BB the GM gives those guys the chance to develop as much because the cost is so low with the current CBA terms for rookies.

On the other hand, and to help make my earlier point about reasonable takes from both sides :D , one could argue that BB the GM needs to pull the trigger faster on some of those players (nobody should have needed those 2 games in 2018 to figure out that Cyrus Jones wasn't going to work, for example, as he was obviously a bust even back in 2016). Along that path, Dawson's quick hook would be a positive sign.
 


If I were someone making this claim I'd claim ignorance when it comes to college football.

I mean how embarrassing to NOT know what type of system the NEP run. I mean that would be a rough scene. Ya know, being a fan of the team & all?
Carry on. 99.9% of the board had no idea either.


Uh ohhhhhhhhh. Someone did NOT do his homework. I mean how embarrassing to just ignore history like that. Ya know, being a college football fan and all?

Petrino specifically said he moved away from his traditional offense to fit Jackson’s talents because Jackson could not learn the EP. They tried the whole virtual reality thing over and over, but it did not click. So Petrino incorporated more spread elements along with basic run-and-shoot vertical concepts that Jackson became very good at. However, all the EP sets where anticipation and accuracy was important, Jackson did not pick up. His reads were often wrong and even when he picked the correct receiver, his passes did not hit the spots.

The genius of Petrino was that he was willing to change for Jackson. The marriage was fantastic. My point stands. This offense was not changing for Jackson. Hence we passed on his twice.
 
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When you have the greatest QB of all time, your margin of error is extremely large.

The common trend we see in the NFL is when a QB doesn’t play well, the coach gets fired. And then eventually the GM.

Brady’s had some very mediocre rosters, but has made them extremely competitive year in and year out.

Brady really doesn’t get enough credit.
 
I think there's also a bias against your own team's draft since you naturally compare your drafted players to the best players in that year's draft in their round, not the average player in that pick range.

Example: Cyrus Jones
Drafted #60 overall, 2nd round, 2016

Seems like a terrible bust pick, right? 2nd rounder and our first pick - we should expect a good player. But look at the players that went 3 picks before and after him:
TJ Green CB
Sean Davis S
Roberto Aguayo K
Vonn Bell S
James Bradberry CB
Adam Gotsis DT

Not exactly a litany of pro bowlers.
 
I think there's also a bias against your own team's draft since you naturally compare your drafted players to the best players in that year's draft in their round, not the average player in that pick range.

Example: Cyrus Jones
Drafted #60 overall, 2nd round, 2016

Seems like a terrible bust pick, right? 2nd rounder and our first pick - we should expect a good player. But look at the players that went 3 picks before and after him:
TJ Green CB
Sean Davis S
Roberto Aguayo K
Vonn Bell S
James Bradberry CB
Adam Gotsis DT

Not exactly a litany of pro bowlers.
Lol I see why you went with 3 before and after because if you went 4 on each side you’d have a Pro Bowl guard in Cody Whitehair or a Pro Bowl/All Pro safety in Kevin Byard. Also Bradberry and Von Bell are significantly better defensive backs than Jones.
 
I never said Bill was a bad GM. I basically said a lot of people on here won’t call a bust a bust if Bill drafted him.

The entire debate is a waste of time because there is no consensus on what a bust is, let alone who is or isn't one.
 
The entire debate is a waste of time because there is no consensus on what a bust is, let alone who is or isn't one.
If everyone can’t agree that Duke Dawson is a bust then yes, this is a waste of time.
 
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