Poll: What is the lowest round where a missed draft pick can be a bust?

[Deus Irae]

The "B" word gets tossed about with some regularity, so I think I'd see if we can come to some level of agreement on where it's not applicable. So, let us see what we see, and feel free to comment about your choice.

 

[Simpelton]

First and second round is where your immediate impact players come from, below that it's hit andmiss

 

[Tb12goesinya]

Generally I think that any time after the 2nd round the 'bust' designation would only be applicable if the player had off the field issues or disciplinary issues in college(causing him to slip). Thus the 'bust' tag would follow him from college to the pros. He would have to be a top tier prospect junior year of college and slipped to 3rd.

 

[venecol]

Anything below the 199th pick.

 

[Tb12goesinya]

I think kickers and punters are an obvious exception

 

[IcyPatriot]

I voted 3rd because with proper scouting that really isn't a speculative pick.
A 3rd round player should be above average player who has not yet expanded their abilities.

that being said I am not one to pick on Belichick for a miss ... it happens.
He makes up for it in later rounds and developing cheap FA's who were not used properly.

 

[oldrover]

Didn’t somebody post a stat about 50% of 2nd rounders not making it?

If that’s the case, I’d say 1st rounders only.

If I’m mistaken...

https://imgflip.com/gif-maker

 

[Nehalem]

Voted 3rd round.

I believe that no 3rd round pick has ever failed to make the 53 man roster 1st year(exception for injuries). This might even be true of 4th round picks. This tells me that BB attaches value to a 3rd round pick in a way he doesn't for a 7th rounder.

Of course bust should also be graded on a sliding scale. Less contributions are needed for a 3rd rounder to not be a bust over a 1st rounder.

 

[Patriot Missile]

I put 3rd round and below in there only because there are players you scout that you feel should of been first or 2nd round talent fall for some reason. Chase Winovich is a prime example. If his career doesn’t work out I’d consider him a bust only because of expectations and having a high 2nd round grade on him. Thankfully he seems well on his way to being an NFL caliber player with great possibilities.

Then you have what you consider over drafted players that end up doing well. Many consider Tavon Wilson a bust and thought he should of been a 5th to 7th round pick. However he actually played meaningful snaps for the defense and got a 2nd contract with another team so he ended up beating the odds. But expectations were probably low from the start from some fans so I wonder if he hadn’t panned out if he would be in bust territory because he was 2nd rd draftee?

 

[Tunescribe]

I don't quite understand the need to make a distinction -- ANY rookie the team invests in (draft pick, money) that doesn't make the team could be considered a "bust."

 

[slam]

Voted 3rd round.

I believe that no 3rd round pick has ever failed to make the 53 man roster 1st year(exception for injuries). This might even be true of 4th round picks. This tells me that BB attaches value to a 3rd round pick in a way he doesn't for a 7th rounder.

Of course bust should also be graded on a sliding scale. Less contributions are needed for a 3rd rounder to not be a bust over a 1st rounder.

Nehalem, meet Jachai Polite. Jachai, meet Nehalem.

 

[Deus Irae]

I don't quite understand the need to make a distinction -- ANY rookie the team invests in (draft pick, money) that doesn't make the team could be considered a "bust."

There's a voting option for your position

 

[jboston19]

I was torn between choosing 4th and 5th round. I chose 4th, as it’d be very disappointing for a fourth rounder to be cut his first year. It’s not overly common but by no means unheard of for a fifth rounder to not make it through his rookie season.

 

[borg]

The "B" word gets tossed about with some regularity, so I think I'd see if we can come to some level of agreement on where it's not applicable. So, let us see what we see, and feel free to comment about your choice.

The correct answer: 2nd round

Sincerely,
Duke Dawson, Glass I Dowling, Chad Jackson

 

[A Defiant Goose]

I personally expect up to the 3rd round pick to contribute and that anyone beyond that is a bonus

 

[jah]

I agree with most that the 3rd round seems to be the general cutoff for when a draft pick can reasonably be expected to be a lock for the 53 man roster. So if they never contribute in the NFL, that's a bust.

That being said, even the best teams draft and sign busts every year.

 

[farn]

While I acknowledge that 3rd rounders make the team that first year - I still voted 2nd. I expect more from 1st-2nd rounders. Anything after that, I see as a bonus if they become stars.

 

[TommyD4207]

3rd round, just for potential 2nd round 'drops' contingencies. That's the top 100. Anything after that is a complete and utter crapshoot, unless you're drafting a kicker/punter.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

The draft is 4 rds long. Anything after that you're "taking a shot".

 

[Froob]

4th, 5th and later is really a crap shoot.