Poll: What is the lowest round where a missed draft pick can be a bust?

[pazrul72]

My definition of a Bust is based on the expectation that a first or second round player will be a starter for at least 2-3 years, if not with the original team then at least somewhere, Tavon Wilson is not a bust even though he did jack for the pats. Like right now Duke Dawson is a Bust but if he does well in Denver then I will change his label due to getting cut not being about talent, but fit with the team and overall depth at the position. Rookies drafted no matter the round get one year judgement and label free, just because sometimes it’s hard to get up to NFL speed. 3rd and 4th rounders are expected to be on the team at least as backups for 2-3 years or they are a bust and anything drafted after that is a total crapshoot and bonus when you hit so unable to be a bust. I voted 2nd round because that’s the latest where I hope for/expect a starter at some point in their rookie contract.

 

[TinhWoodhead]

If you’re really heavy then you are a bus! regardless of rounds

 

[maust]

My choice(s) aren't there. Beyond the obvious and inexcusable omission (RLKAG *P2*) I'd say for me potential forgiveness begins from the middle of the 3rd and is a given from the mid 4th on down. Excluding the occasional justifiable reach for players with injury concerns but huge potential it's impossible to view a miss in the top 75-80 picks as anything other than an unqualified bust. Depending on how deep a draft it is the crap shooting often takes off somewhere around the middle of the 3rd with teams trading up to grab "their' guys. And that's where the forgiveness factor comes in. If you miss on your own pick at 80 it is what it is and their may be mitigating factors but if you traded up to get your guy there and miss that's gotta be considered a bust.

 

[Kdo5]

The correct answer: 2nd round

Sincerely,
Duke Dawson, Glass I Dowling, Chad Jackson

Aaron Dobson too, although he could actually be considered a success compared to those guys.

But yes, second round. Any pick after that is a crap shoot.

 

[fnordcircle]

The expectations differ depending on the round and this is pretty general but I guess my personal gauge is:

1st or 2nd round bust - Someone who fails to become a starter or key roleplayer in the first 2 seasons. You should be able to find 2 starters out of the top 64 players out of college. I give a mulligan for seasons lost to injury or players who were drafted for depth.

3rd or 4th round bust - Someone who fails to become a contributor. Same as above you should be able to find 2 players who contribute out of the next 64 players available.

5th or 6th round bust - Cut in the first season.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I'd say 2nd, because 1st and 2nd round picks are the only ones you can reasonably expect to be significant contributors. I can definitely see where someone who goes as far as third is coming from, but at that point it's weighted differently. Basically for a third rounder to be a bust he'd pretty much have to have no NFL career to speak of. Because if you're getting even fringe rotational production out of a third rounder you can't really call him a bust IMO.

 

[Kontradiction]

Used as a noun, the dictionary definition of “bust” is “a worthless thing.” So I think that applies to every round. They expend draft capital on someone in the hope that guy can contribute. If they can’t contribute/get on the field/stay healthy/etc, they’re worthless. Therefore, by definition, they’re busts. Doesn’t matter what round they were picked in.

 

[italian pat patriot]

3

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Thanks, Deus. Good question.

I checked "2nd," because I think that's the best place to draw the line. That said, I've never really seen the difference between a 60--64 pick and a 65--70 pick, especially given that there are 22+ starting positions to fill, but 2nd is the clearest place to draw the line, IMO.

Not so sure about the point that a possible 1st or 2nd could "fall" into the 3rd round for off-field issues and thereby be considered a "bust" if he doesn't live up to his "potential." You're drafting a player, so the whole package counts.

 

[SBLIII]

2nd

 

[RobertWeathers]

If a pick does not pan out, it is a bust.

 

[Sicilian]

I picked 3rd, but in reality I feel like the 3rd round is one of those gray areas. Hitting on a guy there is a pleasant surprise, while at the same time if he doesn't pan out it feels like a waste. It's a high enough draft pick that using it to trade for someone feels like a weighty bit of capital, but yet the success rate across the NFL in the 3rd is not very high at all. It's the purgatory of the draft weekend.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

The other issue to consider is the draft class as a whole. Take a look at the 2016 draft and the sheer number of first round busts. So a bad draft class pushes guys up into rounds that should have never been selected in. Think about Winovich, a steal late second round. But what if he came out in a down year for the draft class, and the Pats selected him in the first round. Right now people would be calling him a bust.

 

[ALP]

1,2,3 rounds there's a viable expectation to become something

i voted 4th, the last day of the draft is pretty blind

 

[Nunchucks]

I think it is reasonable to expect a 2nd round pick to become a starter. 3rd round on, it's more of a guessing game.

 

[Wozzy]

If a prospect gets a debilitating injury that ends their career, are they a bust?

Chad Jackson had all the talent in the world, he had cabbage for brains, he was a bust.

Andy Katzenmoyer was on his way to being a contributor and potentially good player, then got a bulging disk in his neck that ended his career, I don't consider him a bust but rather a hard luck case.

Everyone has a different definition of "bust," so it seems there will never be a consensus on it.

On a side note, the NFL draft is a crapshoot from round one to seven, every year well over a thousand players throw their hats into the ring and just over 200 get jobs, the average career lasts three years.

After PeeWee league, highschool and college many of these guys bodies are trashed, they're just hanging on long enough to sign one contract, but they're not going to tell that to the team signing them.

Also people are unpredictable and unreliable, the draft will always be a crapshoot.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

3rd
Anything else is a calculated gamble.

 

[PatsDeb]

I went with 3rd, as after that it's a crap shoot. But really, it's a crap shoot from the 1st round on down.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

I don't quite understand the need to make a distinction -- ANY rookie the team invests in (draft pick, money) that doesn't make the team could be considered a "bust."

If a pick does not pan out, it is a bust.

I agree with these (2) posts. I gather what we are writing about how noticeable the loss it is.

 

[Joey007]

Do you consider Taylor Price a bust?

Do you consider Josh Boyce a bust?

How you answer those questions shall determine your answer.