Teams Likely to Take a Step Back in 2019

[Patstastic]

Just as the title poses. What teams are due for a "Step back" this season?

1. Saints. From Thanksgiving on, Brees was not a good QB whatsoever. His arm strength looks to be gone. I also think they will miss Ingram. Their schedule is brutal again too. I think the end is near for this group.

2. Bears. They had crazy good health last year. And their defense is a beast. But they face a first place schedule now. Their QB isn't "Elite" to say the least.

3. Ravens. Jackson has to develop into a pocket passer. His style won't last. I also think they've downgraded defensively. They seem like a team that's headed for the gutter.

It's possible the Patriots suffer more injuries this season. But they had an unusual amount of blowout losses on the road last season. They were without Edelman for the first four weeks. Gordon went into rehab. Also, the chances of the Patriots being 11-5 or worse again is very slim. This is why I didn't put them in the "Decline" group.

Who are your top three?

 

[IcyPatriot]

Dolphins
Rams
Steelers

 

[Uptown]

Regress:

Rams
Ravens
Saints
Chiefs
Sleeper: Chargers

Progress:

Panthers
Seahawks
Browns
Packers
Sleeper: Jaguars

 

[Tony2046]

The Jete if it's possible.

 

[Wheelman]

Just a reminder, first place schedules only account for two games.

 

[fnordcircle]

The Jete if it's possible.

View attachment 23652

I can't wait for him to announce a team-building skiing trip and the green gang all show up in their ski gear and he's in the locker room readying fat rails for everyone.

 

[everlong]

Rams, Chiefs and Saints will all regress.

Falcons, 49ers and Bills will all win more games.

 

[Tony2046]

I'd add Steelers to the regression list.

 

[Patstastic]

Curious why some are choosing KC. Schedule? Injuries? Coaching?

 

[Deus Irae]

Red Sox
Celtics
Bruins
Bears
Saints
Rams
Chargers

 

[Tony2046]

Curious why some are choosing KC. Schedule? Injuries? Coaching?

I'd say the loss of Hunt and SOS would be part of it but imo they still win the division. So maybe a step back in playoff seeding.

 

[luuked]

Curious why some are choosing KC. Schedule? Injuries? Coaching?

I'd add them because Mahomes had statistically improbable good fortune in terms of turnovers if you tend to believe the methodology that FO is using to evaluate QBs:

Adjusted Interceptions 2018 | Football Outsiders

Our leaders in adjusted interceptions for last season were a pair of first-year starters. Mahomes and Darnold finish with 21 adjusted interceptions apiece. That's a pretty typical league-leading total; DeShone Kizer had 23 in 2017. Mahomes had 12 official interceptions. As mentioned, he benefitted from 10 dropped/defensed interceptions, while throwing one on a Hail Mary (on the last play of the first half in a Week 9 win over Cleveland).
...
We can't guarantee that Carr, Mahomes, or Rodgers will throw more interceptions in 2019, or that Mayfield, Luck, or Brady will throw fewer, but history says that's likely to be the case.

Add in whatever will happen to Tyreek (4-8 games suspension I would assume) and they will find themselves with a smaller margin for error than last year.


As many know I am not the biggest fan of football stats services mostly because for a vast majority of positions a lot of the context gets lost when trying to model with numbers.

QB play and INTs are a different animal though. Yes there might still be some context missing in terms of pressures, wrong routes and what not.. but overall I feel they give you a good idea about how lucky/unlucky some QBs got over the course of the season.

 

[Wheelman]

Curious why some are choosing KC. Schedule? Injuries? Coaching?

Andy Reid. Mahomes regression. Tape on their offense.

 

[IcyPatriot]

Andy Reid. Mahomes regression. Tape on their offense.

Yep ... Reid tends to blow his wad everywhere he goes then can't get it back up.

 

[Joey007]

I have one in particular that I feel very strongly about:

The Texans.

 

[Ivan]

I have one in particular that I feel very strongly about:

The Texans.

Yep

 

[WinstonSmith]

Rams: Mere moral teams don't handle the super bowl hangover well...

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Just as the title poses. What teams are due for a "Step back" this season?

1. Saints. From Thanksgiving on, Brees was not a good QB whatsoever. His arm strength looks to be gone. I also think they will miss Ingram. Their schedule is brutal again too. I think the end is near for this group.

I noticed he was particularly bad down the stretch of the NFCC. They scored on early in the 3rd quarter, I believe mostly throwing to Kamara... and then he barely hit anything downfield other than a jump ball towards the end that should have been picked but luckily his WR came up with it. It was like a mini Manning vs. Colts in 2014 AFCDG. Of course, Manning's defense carried him to a title the next year but I don't see the Saints defense doing that.

 

[IcyPatriot]

I have one in particular that I feel very strongly about:

The Texans.

Would please more than a few here.

 

[Joey007]

Would please more than a few here.

Yep.

Their O-line was not fixed whatsoever. The linemen they drafted were reaches and likely won’t contribute immediately.

They are far too one dimensional relying on Hopkins offensively. Fuller’s nice, but can’t stay healthy. Miller is a very “meh” option at RB, and they lack good options behind him.

Defensively they will still remain very solid but will take a step back after losing Jackson and Mathieu in their secondary.

Lastly, they managed to win a lot of close games last year. They were really exposed for their flaws in the wild card game vs. Indy. I think that negative momentum will carry into this next season.