Deep Ball Accuracy

[BaconGrundleCandy]

When you're done yelling "Shame ... Shame ... Shame ..." at Kraft (Seriously they're enough people overreacting, grandstanding & seeking attention over this Pats fans shouldn't be delusional but fuxk these azzhole fanbases & media. We owe them sh it)

Heres some great info on the best deep ball passers in the game. Also, under pressure, left, right etc.

 

[everlong]

Your title led me to believe this was another Kraft thread.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Your title led me to believe this was another Kraft thread.

Best you got @everlong?

 

[everlong]

Best you got @everlong?

Using my screen name, another hidden shot at Krafty Bob.

What is he considering a deep ball? 20+ where the receiver catches the ball? Brady over 40 yards doesn't throw a great ball. He tried to get too much air under it and throws up some ducks. Conversely 20-40 he throws a great ball. Dorsett and Gronk in the SB, Gronk AFCCG, Patterson on that slant in the EZ in the regular season. Brady also lacked weapons to do really compete in this category this year. I'm sure his 07 numbers are off the charts compared to other years in his career.

Wilson puts the ball on a line really good on deep balls.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Using my screen name, another hidden shot at Krafty Bob.

What is he considering a deep ball? 20+ where the receiver catches the ball? Brady over 40 yards doesn't throw a great ball. He tried to get too much air under it and throws up some ducks. Conversely 20-40 he throws a great ball. Dorsett and Gronk in the SB, Gronk AFCCG, Patterson on that slant in the EZ in the regular season. Brady also lacked weapons to do really compete in this category this year. I'm sure his 07 numbers are off the charts compared to other years in his career.

Wilson puts the ball on a line really good on deep balls.

Definitely here for this.
He breaks it down in the thread really well.

 

[primetime]

Brady did not have his best season in terms of accuracy on deep balls, and honestly it's been a weakness for the last few years. That's fine. The Patriots scheme around it. The man's in his 40s.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Brady did not have his best season in terms of accuracy on deep balls, and honestly it's been a weakness for the last few years. That's fine. The Patriots scheme around it. The man's in his 40s.

I think if we had the right players there. Talented, guys that could make a play & make a wow play. And earn his trust, then I think they could improve. Gordon, Cooks, Moss but yea its just not a focus rn.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I challenge any one of these QBs to make 4 3rd and long throws in OT of an AFCCG.

There....I just cherry picked

 

[Doctor DDS]

Hard to evaluate these metrics without knowing game situation, how open the receiver was, what was the rush like etc.. Last year Brady had several long throws to Cook that were successful or resulted in PI and there were times he was running wide open. Do not recall many (if any) examples this year where Brady missed a wide open WR running alone deep.

 

[mosslost]

When you're done yelling "Shame ... Shame ... Shame ..." at Kraft (Seriously they're enough people overreacting, grandstanding & seeking attention over this Pats fans shouldn't be delusional but fuxk these azzhole fanbases & media. We owe them sh it)

Heres some great info on the best deep ball passers in the game. Also, under pressure, left, right etc.

From my sports fan hobby perspective I don't care about the Kraft story at all.

 

[SBLIII]

According to PFF, Brady had a passer rating of 100+ with 6 TDs and 1 INT on deep passes. So I don't think this is a weakness of him.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

The most overrated “skill” of the position. So much of it has to do with the talent of downfield receivers, and these rankings change wildly each year with small sample sizes.

 

[Uptown]

Who cares. We won the SB despite all that.

 

[Zuma]

Hard to evaluate these metrics without knowing game situation, how open the receiver was, what was the rush like etc.. Last year Brady had several long throws to Cook that were successful or resulted in PI and there were times he was running wide open. Do not recall many (if any) examples this year where Brady missed a wide open WR running alone deep.

I agree. One chart shows Tom way down in accuracy...then the next one for 10 yard deeper shows him much higher.

 

[primetime]

Also don't think this matters that much. Look at the number of passes over 25 yards in the air. You're talking 30 or so maximum per season. I'd be curious to know how many short passes (9 or fewer air yards) end up going for 25+ yards. Obviously a smaller percentage but in terms of raw numbers?

That's not to discount a quarterback who can throw really accurate deep balls, they're potentially gamechanging plays. But I think the value of it is probably overstated given that even his most accurate downfield thrower, Luck, throws about 2 passes of 25+ per game and completes fewer than 1 of them (he throws another pass and a half of 21-25 yards and completes fewer than 1 of those, too). When you actually reduce it to numbers like that in a way that's meaningful in football terms, it really doesn't matter much. I suppose these are big plays, so that can change a game, but quarterbacks really shouldn't be judged on fractions of a completion.

Also a lot of these subgroups (the 5 yard categories) aren't statistically powered for analysis and it's irresponsible to report them. Yeah, 1/3 and 2/3 are a 33.3 percentage point difference but it's one throw, you can't make any conclusions based on that. Much of the analytics crew either have no statistical acumen, or they know just enough to play ******** games with statistics (see Josh Hermsmyer and his incredibly dishonest and ridiculous binning to get r-squareds of like 0.96).

 

[Huckleberry1]

As much fun as it is to watch the deep ball is overrated, especially when it comes to winning championships. The truth of the matter, at least from what I can tell, is that when you get down to the biggest games you are often facing strong defenses and pass rushes, which negates the impact of a deep passing game. Nothing demonstrated this more than Super Bowl 49, where Brady picked the Seahawks apart with a really short quick release passing game. It wouldn’t have mattered if they had Moss, and could have possibly hurt them to try and take deep drops for deep throws, the Seahawks weren’t going to give them the time to go deep, so going with a game plan of taking every yard you can get underneath them was the key to eating them.

I believe a deep threat, and threats outside the hashes helps to open up the field, but as we have seen from Brady over the years he can still manage without it.

 

[luuked]

According to PFF, Brady had a passer rating of 100+ with 6 TDs and 1 INT on deep passes. So I don't think this is a weakness of him.

I mean we can still all agree that he is the GOAT and that we don't want to have any other QB than him running this team at the same time as we acknowledge that he is not the best deep thrower. Right ?

He doesn't need to be the greatest of all time at everything.

 

[luuked]

As much fun as it is to watch the deep ball is overrated, especially when it comes to winning championships. The truth of the matter, at least from what I can tell, is that when you get down to the biggest games you are often facing strong defenses and pass rushes, which negates the impact of a deep passing game. Nothing demonstrated this more than Super Bowl 49, where Brady picked the Seahawks apart with a really short quick release passing game. It wouldn’t have mattered if they had Moss, and could have possibly hurt them to try and take deep drops for deep throws, the Seahawks weren’t going to give them the time to go deep, so going with a game plan of taking every yard you can get underneath them was the key to eating them.

I believe a deep threat, and threats outside the hashes helps to open up the field, but as we have seen from Brady over the years he can still manage without it.

The real issue is that if the other team doesn't really respect your deep games then they can just crowd the MOF and if they are disciplined and well-coached enough to not blow too many assignments then they can shut down this offense.

An outside player / deep player just keeps defenses more honest by creating more space in the MOF. Of course if the other team doesn't have the personnel to do that or not good enough coaching to create a gameplan to take advantage of it then it doesn't matter.

But the Rams did a pretty good job at it.

 

[Huckleberry1]

The real issue is that if the other team doesn't really respect your deep games then they can just crowd the MOF and if they are disciplined and well-coached enough to not blow too many assignments then they can shut down this offense.

An outside player / deep player just keeps defenses more honest by creating more space in the MOF. Of course if the other team doesn't have the personnel to do that or not good enough coaching to create a gameplan to take advantage of it then it doesn't matter.

But the Rams did a pretty good job at it.

I don’t disagree with that at all, and I noted that at the end of my post, but I no longer see it as vital to winning championships. I actually thought the weakness outside the hashes was the bigger issue for them this season, and I expect that to be addressed this offseason.

 

[Zuma]

I don’t disagree with that at all, and I noted that at the end of my post, but I no longer see it as vital to winning championships. I actually thought the weakness outside the hashes was the bigger issue for them this season, and I expect that to be addressed this offseason.

I agree it's not vital...but it helps...like the threat of running. When a defense takes those options seriously...it helps a lot.