Lawrence Guy has played very well. When you point to him as your team’s number one DT moving forward, you probably have a decent sized hole that needs to be addressed.
Free agency hasn’t really cut it. Fanane, Knighton, Shelton, etc—all let downs. Even Branch turned into a letdown. I think they need to find at least one blue chip prospect in the early rounds of the draft, and I think this team and coaching staff have proven how much bigger a priority the trenches are versus the plug and play misfits at WR that Brady has worked with over the years (probably including the current one).
That’s not to say that a WR shouldn’t be taken with a high draft pick again because they definitely should, but I don’t think it’s a bigger priority than fixing the issues on the DL. Luckily, priorities don’t matter as much once BPA takes over, so you could be right that a receiver will be addressed first if the right guy is there.
Branch was a good value for his first two-and-a-half seasons with the Pats (total cost through 2016 = $5.4m).
Guy was the most productive DT, statistically, but he and Brown were the primary tandem, averaging roughly the same snap% per game this year (~50%). Butler ended up averaging about the same snap%/game as Shelton (~36%).
Currently for 2019 at DT:
- Guy (29), 1100 Pats snaps .. signed thru 2020
- Butler (25), 850 Pats snaps .. signed thru 2019
- Parry (27), 2 yrs starting NT for IND .. signed thru 2019 (futures contract)
- Herron (24), 1 yr Pats PS .. (PS, likely futures contract)
- Brown (25), 2100 Pats snaps .. UFA
- Shelton (26), 324 Pats snaps .. UFA
At this point, I'm guessing that Brown might be retained for $2.5m-$3.0m AAV, with a relatively small signing bonus.
The Pats probably end up with four DTs on the final 53. If they re-sign Brown, they'll have three, plus a couple candidates under contract. So, yeah, this would be a good draft for them to try to snag a promising rookie prospect, but I don't think they'll need to sell out to get one.
TE for 2019 (in descending order of experience):
- Gronk (30) .. thru 2019
- Allen (29) .. thru 2019
- Anderson (25) - some NFL experience .. thru 2019 (ERFA)
- Hollister (25) - less than 150 offensive snaps, on IR .. thru 2019
- Izzo (23) - no NFL experience, on IR .. thru 2021
If Gronk retires, and Allen is cut (rather than restructured/extended), the cupboard is pretty close to bare, and the Pats will likely need 3 total for the final 53.
WR for 2019:
- Edelman (33) .. thru 2019
- Darren Andrews (24) .. thru 2020, on IR
- Berrios (24) .. thru 2021, on IR
- Cody Hollister (25) .. 2018 ERFA, on IR
- Damoun Patterson (24) .. (PS, likely futures contract)
- Hogan (31), 3 yrs Pats exerience .. UFA
- Dorsett (26), 2 yrs Pats experience .. UFA
- C. Patterson (28), 1 yr Pats experience .. UFA
The Pats will likely need 5 total for the final 53, and the cupboard looks pretty bare here, also.
I think that the Pats pretty much always take BPA, regardless of position or spot in the draft (with some 2nd-round risk/reward picks). I don't think that "need" elevates WR/TE above DT, but the "need" for WR/TE does seem greater to me
at the moment (and may look completely different after Free Agency).
I also don't think that BB is particularly impressed with TEs who can catch but not block, and TEs who can block, but who haven't been top-end receivers in college, are usually available later in the draft.
Taking a WR with a high pick seems unlikely, for reasons that have been "discussed"
ad nauseum, but I really don't yet know much about the WR prospects available in this draft, so I'm going with "never say never" for now.
