Antonio Brown Mega-Thread

[supafly]

I like AB and all but his contract is way too much $$

It’s not, though. It would be a three year deal for approx. 13m a year.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

According to Shefter they are reworking Ben's contract to make some cap room. Looks like they may end up dealing Brown.

Zero chance brown is on the steelers next year.

Bell and brown gone...Steelers have some holes but also young guys stepping up

 

[supafly]

Zero chance brown is on the steelers next year.

Bell and brown gone...Steelers have some holes but also young guys stepping up

They still have JuJu, Ben, and Connor, and they’ll probably get a nice haul in higher round picks/players they can use for defense and maybe another WR. They’ll also save about 1m against the cap and improve the team chemistry.

They may actually improve the team by trading Brown.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

What’s with the extreme OBJ hate in this thread? I’ll start by saying I don’t care much for OBJ either. The guy comes across ****y, annoying, and a diva, but Antonio Brown is on another level of d0uche. He’s just been better protected from his a$shole self coming out for all to see, but in the last year it has started to really leak. He’s a total locker room cancer, j@ckass, a turd off the field, and has extremely thin skin. I’d take OBJ in a second since he’s younger and less of a distraction than Brown, if I could choose between the two.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Another point on Brown is that he's hitting the wide receiver wall, though it isn't yet apparent. I've noticed this happens to guys just before a major decline when I look at their yards per target. If you just look at their basic volume numbers, you see these WRs have a year or so where they appear to have the same production, but it's because they require a lot more passes to get there.

Here's the case in point with Brown, looking at his yards per target by year. Keep in mind he just turned the magic number 30.

2013 - 9.08
2014 - 9.33
2015 - 9.41
2016 - 8.28
2017 - 9..46
2018 - 7.72

BONUS: It may shock people that Gronk averaged 9.47 yards per target this season, which is higher than any season of Brown's career.

I'm not saying Brown is going to be a terrible receiver next year, but this is a tell-tale sign that his decline has begun.

 

[maineman209]

It’s not, though. It would be a three year deal for approx. 13m a year.

More than the Pats should probably invest for one WR, though. Especially for 2019.

 

[supafly]

More than the Pats should probably invest for one WR, though. Especially for 2019.

Last 5 years:

129 for 1698

136 for 1834

106 for 1284

101 for 1533

104 for 1297

(59 touchdowns during that span)

 

[maineman209]

Last 5 years:

129 for 1698

136 for 1834

106 for 1284

101 for 1533

104 for 1297

(59 touchdowns during that span)

Again, I'm not questioning AB's value wrt production versus cost, taken in isolation.

However:

Pats' WR for 2019 (currently):

- Edelman (33) .. thru 2019
- Darren Andrews (24) .. thru 2020, on IR
- Berrios (24) .. thru 2021, on IR
- Cody Hollister (25) .. 2018 ERFA, on IR
- Damoun Patterson (24) .. (PS, likely futures contract)

- Hogan (31), 3 yrs Pats exerience .. UFA
- Dorsett (26), 2 yrs Pats experience .. UFA
- C. Patterson (28), 1 yr Pats experience .. UFA

Given the Pats relatively limited cap space, and given the Pats relatively limited options for creating significantly MORE cap space, and given the potential desire to re-sign Flowers and Trent Brown (plus Gost, Ryan Allen, etc.), investing that amount in just the one WR (who also turns 31 before the start of next season, simply doesn't seem wise to me, compared to the potential loss of future returns from Flowers and Trent Brown (at least one of whom would NOT be able to be retained if the Pats sign AB).

IOW, AB is certainly worth $13m, just not for the Pats, given their current roster/cap circumstances.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Simple question.
Simple answer. No.
Thank you.

 

[cstjohn17]

At his price, it’s something like 21 million per.
I don’t want him at any price and wouldn’t trade more than a fifth round pick for him. Then he’s off to cleaveland

I am too lazy to look but I am pretty sure the exact same things were said about Moss before he came to town. I would do a trade is a second, it is not like the Patriots can be trusted to draft a WR, also you weaken a rival.Why not send Brady out in style?

Patriot WRs under contract for 2019

• Edelman
• Slater
• Berrios
• McCarron

Not exactly the greatest show on turf.

 

[Soliel]

Good point

 

[maineman209]

I am too lazy to look but I am pretty sure the exact same things were said about Moss before he came to town. I would do a trade is a second, it is not like the Patriots can be trusted to draft a WR, also you weaken a rival.Why not send Brady out in style?

Patriot WRs under contract for 2019

• Edelman
• Slater
• Berrios
• McCarron

Not exactly the greatest show on turf.

The Pats got Moss for a 4th-rounder in 2007. His cap hit was $3m, which represented 2.8% of the cap, in a year when the Pats had more relative cap space to begin with.

Assuming that the Steelers would even consider trading AB to a major rival like the Pats, they'd likely want a much higher draft pick than what the Pats gave up for Moss, and AB's $13m salary for 2019 would represent 6.9% of the cap in a year when the Pats are fairly short on cap space. That $13m is also roughly equivalent to the combined cap hits of Edelman, Hogan, Patterson, Dorsett and Gordon in 2018.

Spending that much available cap space on one (soon-to-be-31-year-old) WR, thus constraining the Pats from signing or re-signing valuable players at other positions, just doesn't seem like a winning strategy to me.

 

[Soliel]

The Pats got Moss for a 4th-rounder in 2007. His cap hit was $3m, which represented 2.8% of the cap, in a year when the Pats had more relative cap space to begin with.

Assuming that the Steelers would even consider trading AB to a major rival like the Pats, they'd likely want a much higher draft pick than what the Pats gave up for Moss, and AB's $13m salary for 2019 would represent 6.9% of the cap in a year when the Pats are fairly short on cap space. That $13m is also roughly equivalent to the combined cap hits of Edelman, Hogan, Patterson, Dorsett and Gordon in 2018.

Spending that much available cap space on one (soon-to-be-31-year-old) WR, thus constraining the Pats from signing or re-signing valuable players at other positions, just doesn't seem like a winning strategy to me.

Moss was way better of a receiver than brown. It would be like comparing jerry rice to that guy on the raiders. Crabtree or whoever that great one they have is. So, while that guy is good, he’s not worth 20 million. No one is worth that

 

[203Pat]

Moss was way better of a receiver than brown. It would be like comparing jerry rice to that guy on the raiders. Crabtree or whoever that great one they have is. So, while that guy is good, he’s not worth 20 million. No one is worth that

Lol what? Moss I would agree is a better receiver but Brown is no Michael Crabtree.

 

[supafly]

Again, I'm not questioning AB's value wrt production versus cost, taken in isolation.

However:

Pats' WR for 2019 (currently):

- Edelman (33) .. thru 2019
- Darren Andrews (24) .. thru 2020, on IR
- Berrios (24) .. thru 2021, on IR
- Cody Hollister (25) .. 2018 ERFA, on IR
- Damoun Patterson (24) .. (PS, likely futures contract)

- Hogan (31), 3 yrs Pats exerience .. UFA
- Dorsett (26), 2 yrs Pats experience .. UFA
- C. Patterson (28), 1 yr Pats experience .. UFA

Given the Pats relatively limited cap space, and given the Pats relatively limited options for creating significantly MORE cap space, and given the potential desire to re-sign Flowers and Trent Brown (plus Gost, Ryan Allen, etc.), investing that amount in just the one WR (who also turns 31 before the start of next season, simply doesn't seem wise to me, compared to the potential loss of future returns from Flowers and Trent Brown (at least one of whom would NOT be able to be retained if the Pats sign AB).

IOW, AB is certainly worth $13m, just not for the Pats, given their current roster/cap circumstances.

I hear you. I just think that we’re going to end up with a fair amount of additional cap space after a couple/few changes, and we may not have high hopes for either Brown or Flowers.

It doesn’t matter anyway. Brown obviously isn’t coming here.

 

[maineman209]

I hear you. I just think that we’re going to end up with a fair amount of additional cap space after a couple/few changes, and we may not have high hopes for either Brown or Flowers.

It doesn’t matter anyway. Brown obviously isn’t coming here.

I've been playing around with cap space and contracts on a spreadsheet (surprise!). According to my calkoo-koolations, if the Pats extend Brady 1 year, Gronk 1 year, DMac 1 year, and D.Allen 2 yrs, cut Clayborn and trade Hightower, they can probably make player-acceptable offers to both Flowers and Trent Brown, and keep pretty much all the rest of their in-house FAs on reasonable contracts (if they want to).

Except Rowe. Rowe gots to go.

Anyway, they end up with about $8m-$9m with all draftees signed, etc. Not enough for any big FA signing, but still ...

BTW - I'm sure that what Miguel has is much more accurate and rational, but I don't have a subscription to BSJ, so I'm just going by my own, rough-hewn figures.

 

[Uptown]

....why?

 

[n6249c]

...

IOW, AB is certainly worth $13m, just not for the Pats, given their current roster/cap circumstances.

Was going to agree with you, right up to that last comment. I can’t agree that a locker room cancer diva is “certainly worth $13m”. Especially when his current team certainly does not agree with that.

 

[maineman209]

Was going to agree with you, right up to that last comment. I can’t agree that a locker room cancer diva is “certainly worth $13m”. Especially when his current team certainly does not agree with that.

Well, there are probably at least a few NFL teams that would disagree with you. Doesn't mean that they're right and you're wrong. Just means that they're morons and you're not.

 

[ScottishPatriots]

Yes, you have to maximise the end of the Brady window.