2018 / 2019 Celtics Open Discussion

[rochrist]

There are people on this forum that legitimately thought if the 76'ers got Lebron we would still be the odds on favorite to go to the Finals last year. Way too many people played the "what if" game excusing not winning an ECF that was ours for the taking because "our two best players were out".


This team has a lot of work to do and needs to figure out what it wants to be. Because right now it's completely aimless

Good job getting them turned around. 7-1 and since this post!

 

[borg]

Good job getting them turned around. 7-1 and since this post!

Nice run going...but let's be honest and admit the quality of competition during this streak is "light".......weak sisters, frauds, and teams playing back to back nights.
That being said, wins are wins and the C's deserve lots of kudos for winning with makeshift lineups against mostly full strength opponents; crappy as they may be.. The C's depth advantage over most teams has never been more apparent.
Love that The Brad has tinkered with his lineup and sent Brown and Hayward to the bench (when they were healthy). On paper, 5 stud starter/scorers sounds amazing, but as we have seem, this formula has failed 50% of the time (10-10).
Lineups need hustle/role players to compliment the scorers and Smart/Theis/Aussie Sniper/Morris have fit in seamlessly when asked to start. And with these role players, Boston's scorers don't need to be as selfless.

Going off on a tangent now....trying to make a point.

I hate movies packed with stars... like Oceans Eleven....for one simple reason: No dialogue flow. Eleven stars in a scene and each actor is given a line to say...one actor after another after another. It is a ridiculous formula and so contrived: a celebrity star gazing opportunity. I saw similarities with the Celtics starting 5 stars during their first 20 games. Your turn, now your turn...

Tangent over

Prior to the reshuffling, Morris was the only scoring threat off the bench and the second string squad was offensively anemic. Not now!
Brown can dominate 2nd stringers and the man has been launching himself toward the basket now that he has freedom and likely more confidence knowing he is more skilled than other teams' less adept bench players. Hayward is easily the best scorer on the floor in his subordinate role. Two offensive weapons coming off the bench. Perfect!

Then there's Tatum who wants so badly to be the next NBA superstar. When Kyrie missed a game, Tatum became the Alpha #1 scorer and he put on a clinic demonstrating his Kobie moves. With the more balanced C's lineup, Tatum will have more freedom and opportunities all over the court. Big plus.

We'll see how egos handle these lineup changes once the roster returns to health. Brown is clearly fraught with anxiety over this demotion and internalizing.
Young studs want to put their 3 years in and sign a max deal as quickly as possible. Brown's path is not as inevitable. His 20 points per night from the bench should be enough comfort....and lets hope he continues attacking the basket, regardless of his %. Getting to the line helps this team.

I do expect Hayward to see late game opportunities simply because of his FT prowess.

Haven't mentioned Max Contract Al yet...so I will. Haven't missed him one bit. With Kyrie and Hayward dishing assists, Al's best asset....dishing from the key....has been marginalized. And for what he brings to the table now....overpaid by 50%....IMO. The price of buying a center in the NBA

Bucks, Sixers, Memphis coming up in next 2 weeks....anxious to see how the "realigned" Celtics fare against these quality teams. I reluctantly admit Max Al will be needed.

 

[borg]

Brutal night in Detroit....2nd game of a back-to -back. No energy / no accuracy. Baynes was dominated inside by Drummond...to be expected
Morris was way off
Hayward....not even close
Tatum reverting to hero ball
Then there's Brown. After early week determined play driving to the hoop....lays two whopping eggs back to back. This guy....I've seen enough. He may be a plus athlete but that does not mean he will ever be a plus basketball player. Does this guy have small hands because he sure seems to lose grip of the ball far too often.
Back to Backs appear to be the great equalizer in the NBA this year. The Pelicans were sleep walking vs Boston last week.
I guess these 125 pt night launch fests take extra energy out of the players in this new open run and launch NBA
Anyway......If Ainge sees a trade fit......send Brown before he loses all value.

 

[captain insano]

Brutal night in Detroit....2nd game of a back-to -back. No energy / no accuracy. Baynes was dominated inside by Drummond...to be expected
Morris was way off
Hayward....not even close
Tatum reverting to hero ball
Then there's Brown. After early week determined play driving to the hoop....lays two whopping eggs back to back. This guy....I've seen enough. He may be a plus athlete but that does not mean he will ever be a plus basketball player. Does this guy have small hands because he sure seems to lose grip of the ball far too often.
Back to Backs appear to be the great equalizer in the NBA this year. The Pelicans were sleep walking vs Boston last week.
I guess these 125 pt night launch fests take extra energy out of the players in this new open run and launch NBA
Anyway......If Ainge sees a trade fit......send Brown before he loses all value.

i agree 100 percent on jaylan brown. hes a legend in his own mind. i would love to see him traded away.

 

[captain insano]

Celtics lose Aron Baynes, fall to Suns – Boston Herald

 

[borg]

When the Celtics lose to the dregs of the NBA, naturally I dream about the next draft.
Current #1 draft pick slots as of Dec. 19 :
#12 from Sacramento (#1 protected....If not 2-30 then #25 from Philly)
#13 from Memphis (1-8 protected)
#19 from LA Clippers (1-14 protected)
#23 Boston

Unrealistically, only 1 opportunity to get very good player (#2 or #3) and only if Sacramento defies the lottery odds. Otherwise......future role players on a deep bench.

I can't believe a Doc Rivers team not stacked with studs (Pierce, Garnett, Allen) is in the playoff mix. Doc easily makes my most overrated coaches list. He'll fu*k it up.

Memphis and Sacramento are decent but teams in the West with better players are starting to get their sh*t together and move past them up the ladder.

My hot take for the week: what does it say about Kyrie when Booker continues to light up Boston and make Kyrie look fallible.

Losing Baynes ....yikes!
Boston's goals might just have changed. Be healthy in April and hope to do some damage from a lower seed.
Trader Danny has to locate a big boy very soon. Gimpy Max Contract Al can't handle added minutes.
In the mean time.....the Williams era has officially begun. Hope it lasts

 

[borg]

When the Celtics lose to the dregs of the NBA, naturally I dream about the next draft.
Current #1 draft pick slots as of Dec. 19 :
#12 from Sacramento (#1 protected....If not 2-30 then #25 from Philly)
#13 from Memphis (1-8 protected)
#19 from LA Clippers (1-14 protected)
#23 Boston

Unrealistically, only 1 opportunity to get very good player (#2 or #3) and only if Sacramento defies the lottery odds. Otherwise......future role players on a deep bench.

I can't believe a Doc Rivers team not stacked with studs (Pierce, Garnett, Allen) is in the playoff mix. Doc easily makes my most overrated coaches list. He'll fu*k it up.

Memphis and Sacramento are decent but teams in the West with better players are starting to get their sh*t together and move past them up the ladder.

My hot take for the week: what does it say about Kyrie when Booker continues to light up Boston and make Kyrie look fallible.

Losing Baynes ....yikes!
Boston's goals might just have changed. Be healthy in April and hope to do some damage from a lower seed.
Trader Danny has to locate a big boy very soon. Gimpy Max Contract Al can't handle added minutes.
In the mean time.....the Williams era has officially begun. Hope it lasts

Draft slots as of 12/26
#13
#14
#21
#23

 

[captain stone]

Draft slots as of 12/26
#13
#14
#21
#23

Sacramento needs to go on a long losing streak. I can't believe they're this far from the #2 pick. WTF has happened?

 

[Boston Boxer]

i agree 100 percent on jaylan brown. hes a legend in his own mind. i would love to see him traded away.

Brown is best when he attacks the basket.,but he still wants to be a jump shooter. Dont understand it.

 

[captain insano]

Brown is best when he attacks the basket.,but he still wants to be a jump shooter. Dont understand it.

his ball handling still sucks to.

 

[Boston Boxer]

I wonder if the Celtics have too much talent. I watched the Rockets game last night and even though they scored well over 100 pts, they seemed out of sync to me. They don't have many role players IMO. Flash back to last years team, injuries forced role players into important minutes and they seemed to play better team basketball. Weird team this year

 

[borg]

Brown is best when he attacks the basket.,but he still wants to be a jump shooter. Dont understand it.

Unfortunately Brown is a horrible finisher when he does get to the basket.

His Hulkamania display after dunking over the Greek Freak bugged the crap out of me because of how often this tweener gets swallowed up at the basket. Act like you've dunked before.

Analogy: The Colts starting 11 posing for a post-TD selfie in a game they 're getting blown out in.

Can't shoot, can't finish, looks lost at times........his trajectory is in decline as are his minutes and trade value.

Then there is Hayward. Sadly, this guy is a shell of his former self and his minutes are simply space filler. Watching him vs Houston the other night was depressing.....his role mimicked Alonzo Ball's on LA last year. Dish the ball immediately after receiving a pass....with no threat to ever score.
If Boston ever gets healthy this year with enough bodies to eat up minutes, the team should consider putting Hayward into an extended physical rehab program uninterrupted by flights and games. The man's legs move as if he weighs 350 lbs.....and it is getting worse (at least in my eyes). Then there is his MIA shot.

Both Brown and Hayward have serious confidence issues.

 

[borg]

Sacramento needs to go on a long losing streak. I can't believe they're this far from the #2 pick. WTF has happened?

It's pretty clear now, the Sacramento, Memphis, and LAC #1's aren't going to fetch Boston anything better than a mid 1st pick and a bunch of high teen / low 20 picks unless one 'ping pong ball' defies all odds.
So what will Ainge do with these middling picks?
They certainly don't want 4 rookies (future DNPs) added to a roster with playoff ambition and depth. I see the need for a rookie point guard to develop into Rozier's slot at some point so here's one #1 that should get minutes in 2019-20. Other than that....???
So how does Ainge spend the surplus?

Problems using these #1's as trade chips:
1) Trading now for a quality vet means taking on a contract that Boston has no cap space for.
2) Trading now for a younger player on a rookie contract is more likely but Boston will be trading for a player teams see as flawed and unworthy of long term affiliation.
3) Swapping a 2019 #1 for a 2020 #1.....does this ever happen? Very good teams might make this type of trade but what kind of value would Boston gain from a likely lower pick next year?
4) Trading these chips to move up in the same draft? Who wants to swap their high pick for multiple lower #1's ?

5) Which leaves the summer blockbuster for AD or someone in his stratosphere.
I always assumed Horford would have to be part of this deal. NO gets a big man back for a year. Brown seems logical....but his stock is damaged......+ a couple of number ones. This transaction also requires AD to want to remain in Boston.

My gut says Trader Danny spends one #1 before the deadline on a rookie contract player with some tools to fill a specific role (sniper or rebounder)....and then waits it out with the rest of the bounty and swings for the fences. Unfortunately, his trade chips seem to be losing value every night.

 

[borg]

Current draft order for C's
13
14
20
23
Teams with elite players starting to push western pretenders Sacramento and Memphis down the ladder.
Lakers, Spurs, Rockets on the rise
If only Minny and NO's big guys could carry their crappy teammates past Sac & Memphis.
Then there is Luca. Can the rook carry Dallas past the pretenders?

 

[borg]

Thinking out loud here...
Despite having 4 potential #1's next draft, I'm having trouble believing Trader Danny could use any of the Sac, Memphis, & LAC chips in any mid season trade.

Sacramento is 2 games out from being a playoff team and a lucky role of the dice from being a high lottery pick (#1 protected). For teams willing to trade with Boston, the draft pick range for the Sacramento pick, currently 13th, is 2-3, 7-21 IMHO. Though likely to remain 10-14, will Ainge relinquish the lottery potential? Will teams take a flyer on this pick knowing upside and downside.

The Memphis pick is getting dicey. 1-8 protected and currently 12th in draft order...with team trending south though 3 games from playoffs currently. Draft pick range is 9-21 with possibility of no pick until 2019...then.... 1-6 protection in 2020, no protection in '21.
Will teams want this chip if the payoff gets potentially delayed a year or more?
Will Ainge relinquish this chip knowing the payout could be more substantial in later years when the C's have fewer draft chips? An annuity chip?

The Clippers 1-14 protected pick is very dicey as well. Currently 4th in west though 2 games from 9th which gets their pick protected status. Range is 15-25.
If Clippers miss playoffs this year, a protected 1-14 pick is available in 2020.
If Clippers miss playoffs next season...........nothing.
Will teams ever want this pick if they can get nothing in return.

Their least volatile chip with the tightest range is the C's pick which will likely be mid 20's

Conclusion:
If C's swing a trade now......I can only envision the C's pick and/or current roster players as the tradable assets. While the Sacramento pick will most certainly be better than the C's, its volatility range may create issues determining value, giving both parties pause. Trade partners could demand protections if other #1's are involved.

The real value of the other picks won't begin to emerge until after trade deadline.

Given all the recent statements by management/ownership, it appears nothing will change dramatically until offseason. And there is no way Ainge will want to integrate 3 or 4 #1's into next years roster. Something will give by June 20th.

Note:
C's have up to 2 #2's in 2019 draft:
Pistons (currently 39th)
Celtics if 56-60

C's have only their own #1 in 2020 as of now.

C's have 2 #2's in 2020:
Celtics
Heat

Celtics only draft picks in '21 and later (as of now)

 

[rochrist]

Nice burial of Indy tonight. They seem to have gotten over the hump and are really cruising now.

Plus, some more awesome cameos from Timelord.

 

[captain insano]

what a dumb nickname. timelord. I'm getting tired of scal doing the games. I miss Tommy. without home court in the playoffs. the Celtics are going nowhere.

 

[captain insano]

typical Celtics this year. beat a good team Indiana. make up an important game in the standings only to puke it up all over themselves against a sad Miami heat team.

 

[borg]

typical Celtics this year. beat a good team Indiana. make up an important game in the standings only to puke it up all over themselves against a sad Miami heat team.

I only caught the 2nd half but what I saw was odd. The C's 3rd qtr rally was all Marcus Smart ...from the 3 pt arc and on D. His dunk rejection was the single best defensive play I've seen all year. Rozier and Tatum were minor participants in the rally and Williams had some moments as well.
But then the max contract crew returned and the C's were buried once again.
Al can't run and this has to be Boston's biggest long term worry.
Hayward was in the slow motion machine and Wade just abused him at will.
Irving just didn't have it....and as I'm watching him get back on D, I realized how slight of body this guy is.
I get that the back to back road game regression is real in the NBA....but to be considered a playoff factor, this team has to show it can win on the road. Instead, home teams become the best 3 point shooting teams in history vs the vaunted C's defense.

Then there's Mopey Jaylen Brown who apparently got benched after a dust up with Morris.
C's have issues: Two max contract guys can't carry their weight, young guys who were handed minutes last season can't handle this year's demotion. And for me, I wonder if Boston will win with a superstar PG as their go-to-guy.
How will this team incorporate a fleet of #1's next year?
Something has to give in the short term and off season.
I have to believe Brown wants out and pros like Smart and Morris are tiring of his mopey act.

 

[borg]

Link that updates NBA draft order daily:

Full 2019 NBA Draft Order | Tankathon

Currently 3 #1's:
#22 Boston original
#20 LAC to Boston (1-14 protected)
#14 Sac to Boston (#1 protected)

Memphis to Boston 1st rounder is currently #8 and draft protected (1-8)....though Memphis is tied with Orlando at 19-24. Without tie breakers, Memphis is #8 or #9

Worst case scenario 2019:
-Memphis continues slide and remains in the 1-8 range postponing this #1 for at least a year (1-6 protected in '20 / unprotected in '21)
-LAC continue to play .500 ball while SA, Utah, and the Lakers with a healthier Lebron cruise past leaving LAC out of playoffs and into lottery protected position.
-SAC plays modestly better and makes playoffs eliminating any chance for a C's long shot lottery opportunity in '19
-C's start winning and push past higher seeded teams ....giving Boston a lesser #1

Possible 2019 draft slotting: #18 (Sac), #26 (Bos).......that's it!

Giving Boston in 2020....Memphis pick (1-6 protected), LAC pick (1-14 protected again), Boston's own

Most worrisome for Boston: LAC miss playoffs this season and next leaving Boston with nothing