So Which Pieces on Offense/Defense Are a Part of the Future?

[mgteich]

I think Brady is the only solid future bet on the Pats

I believe that Gilmore is more likely than Brady to be a patriot in 2 years.

 

[mgteich]

Team’s not good, man. The *****ing has actually been reasonable for the most part outside of some insanity here and there.

What does "not good" mean?

Folks have a different perspective, depending on how long they've been a fan. Certainly many of those who were fans pre-Kraft don't see this team as "not good".

 

[TheRainMaker]

I think Brady is the only solid future bet on the Pats

If the Pats season ends badly and they have another passive off season, does Brady even want to come back next year?

 

[TheRainMaker]

What does "not good" mean?

Folks have a different perspective, depending on how long they've been a fan. Certainly many of those who were fans pre-Kraft don't see this team as "not good".

I'm guessing not good enough to compete for a championship.

 

[Kontradiction]

What does "not good" mean?

Folks have a different perspective, depending on how long they've been a fan. Certainly many of those who were fans pre-Kraft don't see this team as "not good".

The goal for the Patriots is to win the Super Bowl and get better as the season goes on. This team just lost back to back December games for the first time in 16 years, has its worst run defense in 45 years, and has a receiving corps that is unable to take advantage of a TE carrying two and sometimes even three guys with him. That’s not a good Patriots team. It’s a team that’s closer to ‘09 than it is the 2014 or 2016 teams (both of which would have waxed this version by 3 or more TDs).

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

The goal for the Patriots is to win the Super Bowl and get better as the season goes on. This team just lost back to back December games for the first time in 16 years, has its worst run defense in 45 years, and has a receiving corps that is unable to take advantage of a TE carrying two and sometimes even three guys with him. That’s not a good Patriots team. It’s a team that’s closer to ‘09 than it is the 2014 or 2016 teams (both of which would have waxed this version by 3 or more TDs).

I think it's worse than 2009...flaws all over the place

 

[Soliel]

The teams suffering from burnout at some unseen levels as well as poor play. 3 super bowl games in four years drains.

Our best bet in my mind is to keep Sony Michel and Brady etc on offense but create a better run game to take pressure off brady. The calculus of the roster is off. Gilmore and the rest of the secondary should remain but we need better defense to expect to win with a core as old as ours. The quality of our offensive unit is less than usual so we either keep it together and actually start playing better d or rebuild

 

[maineman209]

Here are the options, as I see them, for the 90-man off-season roster:

Cannon (31) - signed thru 2021
Mason - signed thru 2023
Andrews - signed thru 2020
Thuney - signed thru 2019
Karras - signed thru 2019
Wynn - signed thru 2021
*T.Brown - offer 3yrs/~$10.5M AAV (thru age 29)

#Ulrick John - offer vet min.^
#Schwenke - offer vet min.^
Waddle - offer vet min.^
Ferentz (30) - offer vet min.^

Michel - thru 2021
White - thru 2020
Burkhead - thru 2020
#Hill - offer 1yr/$1.5M (same as 2018)^

Develin (31) - thru 2020

Gronk (30) - thru 2019 (convert some salary to incentives)
Hollister - thru 2019^
D.Allen - thru 2019 - offer extension thru 2020/~$3M AAV (thru age 30)
Izzo - thru 2021

Edelman (33) - thru 2019
*Gordon (RFA) - offer 3yrs/~$7.0M AAV (thru age 31)
..... 1st round tender = $4.43M as fallback
*Patterson - offer 3yrs/~$3.3M AAV (thru age 31)
*Dorsett - offer 2yrs/$2.8M AAV (thru age 28)
*Hogan (31) - LET WALK
#Berrios - thru 2021^
#Andrews - thru 2020^

Brady (42) - thru 2019 (extend thru 2020 at reduced 2018 cap hit)
Hoyer (34) - thru 2019 (try to replace with draftee)

# = currently on IR
* = free agent
^ = 90-man roster coverage

^FUTURES CONTRACTS for PSQUAD:
Etling (QB), E.Smith (OG/OT), Anderson (FB/TE), Croston (OL), D.Patterson (WR)

 

[mosslost]

If the Pats season ends badly and they have another passive off season, does Brady even want to come back next year?

If it ends badly he definitely will want to come back

 

[Kontradiction]

Here are the options, as I see them, for the 90-man off-season roster:

Cannon (31) - signed thru 2021
Mason - signed thru 2023
Andrews - signed thru 2020
Thuney - signed thru 2019
Karras - signed thru 2019
Wynn - signed thru 2021
*T.Brown - offer 3yrs/~$10.5M AAV (thru age 29)

#Ulrick John - offer vet min.^
#Schwenke - offer vet min.^
Waddle - offer vet min.^
Ferentz (30) - offer vet min.^

Michel - thru 2021
White - thru 2020
Burkhead - thru 2020
#Hill - offer 1yr/$1.5M (same as 2018)^

Develin (31) - thru 2020

Gronk (30) - thru 2019 (convert some salary to incentives)
Hollister - thru 2019^
D.Allen - thru 2019 - offer extension thru 2020/~$3M AAV (thru age 30)
Izzo - thru 2021

Edelman (33) - thru 2019
*Gordon (RFA) - offer 3yrs/~$7.0M AAV (thru age 31)
..... 1st round tender = $4.43M as fallback
*Patterson - offer 3yrs/~$3.3M AAV (thru age 31)
*Dorsett - offer 2yrs/$2.8M AAV (thru age 28)
*Hogan (31) - LET WALK
#Berrios - thru 2021^
#Andrews - thru 2020^

Brady (42) - thru 2019 (extend thru 2020 at reduced 2018 cap hit)
Hoyer (34) - thru 2019 (try to replace with draftee)

# = currently on IR
* = free agent
^ = 90-man roster coverage

^FUTURES CONTRACTS for PSQUAD:
Etling (QB), E.Smith (OG/OT), Anderson (FB/TE), Croston (OL), D.Patterson (WR)

I highly doubt Gronk is going to be willing to convert more salary to incentives. He did that this season and he lost money.

 

[maineman209]

Chung has aged 10 years this season and seems worse by the week. Unless he is playing hurt he needs to go.

He's apparently been nursing a bad left shoulder since sometime during the Minny game, and re-injured it during the first half against PIT.

 

[maineman209]

Looking back to 2009, here were some of the players that were let go/left/not re-signed: Junior Seau, Benjamin Watson, Jarvis Green, Adalius Thomas, and Shawn Springs.

Seau - ancient, turned 41
Springs - turned 35
Thomas - turned 33 (and a serious problem child)
Green - turned 31

Watson wasn't offered a new contract by the Pats (after six years in NE). He was the only guy among those you listed who played another NFL snap after being let go by the Pats.

 

[maineman209]

Edelman isn’t what he was.

I hear this repeated a lot. On the other hand ...

Edelman: 2016 ... 2018

Catch% .. 61.6% ... 68.5%
YPC ........ 11.3 ....... 11.3
Rec/gm .. 6.1 ......... 6.3
Yds/gm .. 69.1 ....... 71.1
TDs .......... 3 ............ 4

 

[maineman209]

Any shot at demarcus lawrence?

Lawrence is playing on a $17m franchise tag for 2018. He's likely to get a contract with an APY somewhere between Mack ($23.5M) and Miller ($19.1M). I can't imagine a scenario in which he settles for significantly less.

Flowers will be expensive, but a lot cheaper than that.

 

[203Pat]

I’m thinking there will be a major overhaul. I’d say the only 99.9% locks for next year are Michel, White, Wynn, Bentley, and Gilmore.

 

[patsinthesnow]

IMO, the team needs to treat the secondary as relatively set in order to devote the necessary resources to the front 7 & offense. With Jackson playing like the best CB in the draft so far & resources already devoted to the slot (Jones/Dawson), we really shouldn’t be using draft picks at the position.

At S, make the necessary roster cuts if need be. The position was neutralized this offseason due to the rule changes. You can get a starting caliber S for 2-3 million a year. I would not invest draft resources here.

The limited resources in cap/draft need to go to DL & WR/TE. I don’t think the team can afford to not trust Wynn at LT with the amount of holes on the roster. They may need to trust Bentley-Van Noy at LB as well if they really want to fix the DL & infuse the offense with a younger weapon.

In short:

Jackson
Wynn
Bentley

The team needs to trust them moving forward at key spots otherwise holes elsewhere won’t get bolstered enough.

 

[maineman209]

Here are the options on DEFENSE, as I see them at the moment, for the 90-man off-season roster:

Guy - signed thru 2020
Butler - signed thru 2019
Brown - offer 3yrs/$4M AAV (thru age 27) - same as Guy
Shelton - LET Walk

Wise - signed thru 2020
Davis - signed thru 2019 ^
Clayborn (31) - signed thru 2019 ^
... costs the same whether cut in March or at the end of Camp
*Flowers - offer 5yrs/$13M AAV (thru age 31) - same as Gilmore

#Bentley - thru 2021
#Sam - thru 2021 ^
Van Noy - thru 2019
Roberts - thru 2019
Hightower - thru 2020
... offer to extend 1yr to reduce cap hits, or trade?
Rivers - thru 2020 ^
*Simon - offer vet min. ^

Chung (32) - thru 2020
Harmon - thru 2020
Melifonwu - thru 2019
D. McCourty (32) - thru 2019
... offer to extend 1yr to reduce 2019 cap hit

Gilmore - thru 2021
Dawson - thru 2021
Jackson - thru 2020
*Jones - (RFA, offer 2yrs/$2.2M APY)
*JMac (32) - offer 1 yr/$3.4M
#*Rowe - LET WALK

# = currently on IR
* = free agent
^ = 90-man roster coverage

^FUTURES CONTRACTS for PSQUAD:
Harris (Edge), Munson (LB), Herron (DT), Kamalu (DL), Wiltz (DB)

 

[mgteich]

I expect that we'll pay a bit more for the players you want signed, but I agree with the choices from our 2018 roster. Obviously, Belichick will get free agent upgrades where he can.

Here are the options on DEFENSE, as I see them at the moment, for the 90-man off-season roster:

Guy - signed thru 2020
Butler - signed thru 2019
Brown - offer 3yrs/$4M AAV (thru age 27) - same as Guy
Shelton - LET Walk

Wise - signed thru 2020
Davis - signed thru 2019 ^
Clayborn (31) - signed thru 2019 ^
... costs the same whether cut in March or at the end of Camp
*Flowers - offer 5yrs/$13M AAV (thru age 31) - same as Gilmore

#Bentley - thru 2021
#Sam - thru 2021 ^
Van Noy - thru 2019
Roberts - thru 2019
Hightower - thru 2020
... offer to extend 1yr to reduce cap hits, or trade?
Rivers - thru 2020 ^
*Simon - offer vet min. ^

Chung (32) - thru 2020
Harmon - thru 2020
Melifonwu - thru 2019
D. McCourty (32) - thru 2019
... offer to extend 1yr to reduce 2019 cap hit

Gilmore - thru 2021
Dawson - thru 2021
Jackson - thru 2020
*Jones - (RFA, offer 2yrs/$2.2M APY)
*JMac (32) - offer 1 yr/$3.4M
#*Rowe - LET WALK

# = currently on IR
* = free agent
^ = 90-man roster coverage

^FUTURES CONTRACTS for PSQUAD:
Harris (Edge), Munson (LB), Herron (DT), Kamalu (DL), Wiltz (DB)

 

[mgteich]

I agree with your analysis and choices. In my gut, I expect Edelman and Gronk to retire, and Hogan to be re-signed.

The key for me is the re-signing of Brown. This would solidify our OL.

For me, the big question mark is at QB in 2019 and in the future. For message board planning, an extension of Brady is a fine analysis.

Here are the options, as I see them, for the 90-man off-season roster:

Cannon (31) - signed thru 2021
Mason - signed thru 2023
Andrews - signed thru 2020
Thuney - signed thru 2019
Karras - signed thru 2019
Wynn - signed thru 2021
*T.Brown - offer 3yrs/~$10.5M AAV (thru age 29)

#Ulrick John - offer vet min.^
#Schwenke - offer vet min.^
Waddle - offer vet min.^
Ferentz (30) - offer vet min.^

Michel - thru 2021
White - thru 2020
Burkhead - thru 2020
#Hill - offer 1yr/$1.5M (same as 2018)^

Develin (31) - thru 2020

Gronk (30) - thru 2019 (convert some salary to incentives)
Hollister - thru 2019^
D.Allen - thru 2019 - offer extension thru 2020/~$3M AAV (thru age 30)
Izzo - thru 2021

Edelman (33) - thru 2019
*Gordon (RFA) - offer 3yrs/~$7.0M AAV (thru age 31)
..... 1st round tender = $4.43M as fallback
*Patterson - offer 3yrs/~$3.3M AAV (thru age 31)
*Dorsett - offer 2yrs/$2.8M AAV (thru age 28)
*Hogan (31) - LET WALK
#Berrios - thru 2021^
#Andrews - thru 2020^

Brady (42) - thru 2019 (extend thru 2020 at reduced 2018 cap hit)
Hoyer (34) - thru 2019 (try to replace with draftee)

# = currently on IR
* = free agent
^ = 90-man roster coverage

^FUTURES CONTRACTS for PSQUAD:
Etling (QB), E.Smith (OG/OT), Anderson (FB/TE), Croston (OL), D.Patterson (WR)

 

[maineman209]

I agree with your analysis and choices. In my gut, I expect Edelman and Gronk to retire, and Hogan to be re-signed.

The key for me is the re-signing of Brown. This would solidify our OL.

For me, the big question mark is at QB in 2019 and in the future. For message board planning, an extension of Brady is the a fine analysis.

I deliberately phrased projected/desired re-signings as "offers", and at the low end of realistic expectation (many people appear to have the high end well-covered).

Edelman and Gronk both retiring would almost necessitate the re-signing of Hogan.

I'm not sure about Edelman retiring, though. His per-game production has been equal or superior to what he posted during his 2016 season. My gut feeling is that, if Brady plays in 2019, Edelman does, too. Gronk seems a different story, though.