The Regression of Patriots Special Teams in 2018:

[maineman209]

Yeah, I thought about mentioning him as well, but decided not to because he was coming in from the outside anyway. If his assignment was basically to set the edge and funnel the return inside then he more or less did his job. Certainly not optimally, but he also almost certainly was not responsible for leaving that cutback lane open purely do to where he was coming from and where the hole opened up.

It's theoretically possible, but for that to be Jones' fault, they would've had to be running something more exotic (basically a stunt, I guess) where it was Ebner's job to deliberately push too far upfield specifically to bait the returner into taking the cutback lane he took while Jones simultaneously filled it.

If that was the case, though, then that would mean that Jones severely misplayed it from the get-go, and that basically everyone else was flowing in the wrong direction for good measure, and that Hogan and Slater both missed the memo since they could have been in position to make plays on that cutback lane but were caught off guard and with their momentum and positioning working against them.

Based on all of that, I'd estimate that it's possible Jones is at fault here, but if we're ranking the probability of each individual player being majority responsible I'd go something like Ebner 95%, Slater 4%, Jones 1%.

Excellent points. I've certainly seen Slater, Jones, and others deliberately loop around behind the returner, presumably to close the box.

I guess it might have also been more than one guy missing an assignment or some sort of miscommunication/misread of what they're teammates are doing.

From the other side, the new rules obviously require the return team to block in somewhat different patterns, which leaves me wondering if Pats coverage units are misreading these new patterns, or possibly encountering novel patterns that they aren't prepared for. That cuts both ways, of course. The Pats have also needed to develop new return blocking schemes, and it seems to me that there are some similarities (at least superficial) in where the cutback lane opened on this return and where it opened for Patterson on his TD return.

 

[maineman209]

Do we have a new special teams coach? Could someone please refresh my memory?

This is Joe Judge's 4th season as the Pats' ST Coordinator. He was ST assistant for the Pats from 2012-14 under Scott O'Brien (who moved to the Pats' scouting dept in 2015), and an ST assistant at Alabama from 2009-11.

Highest (gross) ST snap counts in descending order:

2018
Ebner
Slater
King
Grigsby
J.Jones
DMac*
Guy
Develin
Chung*
Hogan
JMac

*DMac & Chung have both seen their ST snaps increase this season.

2017
Richards
J.Jones
Bademosi
Bolden
King
M.Flowers
Hollister (2018 - has missed 6 of 10 games to injury)
Ebner*
Develin
Guy
Grissom (2018 - missed 5 of 9 games injured before being waived after wk-9 this season)
Marsh

*Ebner went on IR (ACL) after wk-12. Slater was out a few games with a hammy that dogged him all season. Both were among the highest in ST snaps/game when active.

 

[Tony2046]

I don’t think that’s the case.

They rank 28th in average KO return yards allowed.






They rank 31st in average Punt return yards allowed.

 

[Tony2046]

Yeah, I thought about mentioning him as well, but decided not to because he was coming in from the outside anyway. If his assignment was basically to set the edge and funnel the return inside then he more or less did his job. Certainly not optimally, but he also almost certainly was not responsible for leaving that cutback lane open purely do to where he was coming from and where the hole opened up.

It's theoretically possible, but for that to be Jones' fault, they would've had to be running something more exotic (basically a stunt, I guess) where it was Ebner's job to deliberately push too far upfield specifically to bait the returner into taking the cutback lane he took while Jones simultaneously filled it.

If that was the case, though, then that would mean that Jones severely misplayed it from the get-go, and that basically everyone else was flowing in the wrong direction for good measure, and that Hogan and Slater both missed the memo since they could have been in position to make plays on that cutback lane but were caught off guard and with their momentum and positioning working against them.

Based on all of that, I'd estimate that it's possible Jones is at fault here, but if we're ranking the probability of each individual player being majority responsible I'd go something like Ebner 95%, Slater 4%, Jones 1%.

I'm not sure but it does look like Ebner over shot his assignment. OTOH it also looks like Hogan is out of position as well. Tough to tell.

 

[Hyped]

I think it is just a matter of us adjusting to the new rules.

If it doesn't get better before the play-offs, we should just kick it out of the back of the EZ (if we don't play against high winds).

 

[Uptown]

 

[BradyFTW!]

I'm not sure but it does look like Ebner over shot his assignment. OTOH it also looks like Hogan is out of position as well. Tough to tell.

View attachment 21747

Agreed, that's what it looks like to me too. Ebner made the initial mistake, and Hogan compounded it.

 

[maineman209]

Couldn't hurt.

 

[TomPatriot]

Couldn't hurt.

Almost nothing could hurt.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Thanks for the stats.
Doubly bad because over the last few seasons one of the Pats not-so-secret weapons was that, in Gostkowski, they have a K who can consistently place a Kickoff inside the five yard line or just a couple of yards into the end zone, where the returner's momentum would take him past the goal line and give the ST guys a chance to swarm him inside the 20.
Now, I find myself hoping that Gostkowski will just kick the damn ball into Foxboro...which he is perfectly capable of doing on every kick, unless the wind is wicked bad against him.

 

[Jimke]

This is Joe Judge's 4th season as the Pats' ST Coordinator. He was ST assistant for the Pats from 2012-14 under Scott O'Brien (who moved to the Pats' scouting dept in 2015), and an ST assistant at Alabama from 2009-11.

Highest (gross) ST snap counts in descending order:

2018
Ebner
Slater
King
Grigsby
J.Jones
DMac*
Guy
Develin
Chung*
Hogan
JMac

*DMac & Chung have both seen their ST snaps increase this season.

2017
Richards
J.Jones
Bademosi
Bolden
King
M.Flowers
Hollister (2018 - has missed 6 of 10 games to injury)
Ebner*
Develin
Guy
Grissom (2018 - missed 5 of 9 games injured before being waived after wk-9 this season)
Marsh

*Ebner went on IR (ACL) after wk-12. Slater was out a few games with a hammy that dogged him all season. Both were among the highest in ST snaps/game when active.

erior The missing players from 2017 were replaced by inferior special teams players. Just like Lewis, Cooks,
and Amendola were replaced by inferior players.

 

[Ring 6]

They rank 28th in average KO return yards allowed.

View attachment 21745




They rank 31st in average Punt return yards allowed.

View attachment 21746

That doesn’t address whether the kr ranking is due to consistently allowing big kick returns or whether it’s skewed because of a couple returns which represent very different problems.

 

[mgteich]

Yup


We've added Humber, Mcclellan and Melifonwu. Grigsby and Grissom are gone. Perhaps this will be an upgrade.

 

[Soliel]

These ST numbers are crazy. This has been a strange year.

 

[Tony2046]

That doesn’t address whether the kr ranking is due to consistently allowing big kick returns or whether it’s skewed because of a couple returns which represent very different problems.

Sure. I've been watching special teams play for the last 4 weeks and its complimentary relationship to the team.

I'll put up some of what I've been looking at and you can give me your perspective if you want.

It'll take a day or two.

But imo the special teams and the Offense have been putting a lot of pressure on the defense.

 

[Ring 6]

Sure. I've been watching special teams play for the last 4 weeks and its complimentary relationship to the team.

I'll put up some of what I've been looking at and you can give me your perspective if you want.

It'll take a day or two.

But imo the special teams and the Offense have been putting a lot of pressure on the defense.

I’m saying 2 bad plays creating a statistical skew is not the same thing as “have been bad all year”.

 

[Soliel]

If you take away the plays, then where were we?

 

[Tony2046]

I’m saying 2 bad plays creating a statistical skew is not the same thing as “have been bad all year”.

I know what you're saying. I disagree. "2 bad plays" could be offset with 2 good plays or by bad plays from other teams etc.. etc.. or IOW it evens out over ten weeks. Bottom line is that they have not been good at all.

 

[maineman209]

The missing players from 2017 were replaced by inferior special teams players.

I'm not sure what got you on this "inferior" thing, but it's not particularly accurate. It's also kind of ironic, wrt the current special teams decline, in that so many posters (not necessarily including you) have *****ed perennially about, "How many special teams guys do we really need?!" Perhaps, now, they have their answer.

The reality is that the few "high-use", experienced special teamers from 2017 who were lost ... Richards, Bademosi, Bolden, M.Flowers ... weren't actually "replaced" by new players ("inferior" or not). If people are drawing that conclusion when comparing the two lists in my previous post, it's mostly my fault for just using the "gross count" lists instead of translating them into "snaps/game-available" lists -- which offer more context and a slightly different perspective. I could say that I was just trying to illustrate that there have been losses in ST personnel by using the gross snap counts, but the fact is I was just lazy. Sorry to have misled anyone. Anyway, here ya go ...
------------------------------

There are four core units: punt/kick coverage & punt/kick blocking. The rough average per unit is ~5 snaps/game. IOW any player with 18+ ST snaps per game is probably regularly participating on all four core units; ~15 snaps = 3 units, etc.

Ordered by ST snaps PER GAME-AVAILABLE:

2017
Richards, 19.3
Grissom, 19.1
Ebner, 19.1 (until he was injured)
King, 18.2
J.Jones, 18.1
Bademosi, 17.8
Bolden, 16.9
Marsh, 16.7 (for 9 games until cut)
Grigsby, 15.8 (for 5 games after signing, and was really good from the get-go)
Reilly, 15.7 (6 games, late in the season)
Slater, 14.0 (missed 7 games with a hammy injury)
M.Flowers, 13.1
Hollister, 12.5
Langi, 12.0 (just the one game before the car wreck)
Develin, 10.5 (blocking units)
Guy, 10.4
Burkhead, 10.2
Chung, 9.1
Branch, 8.8 (12 games)
Harrison, 7.0 (just the one game after being signed)
DMAC, 6.9
KVN, 5.8

2018
Ebner, 22.2 (back to 2016 levels)
McClellan, 20.0 (new, 1 game so far)
Slater, 19.4 (back to 2016 levels)
King, 19.3
** Grigsby, 18.1 (GONE NOW)
** Grissom, 16.3 (missed 6 games to injury - GONE NOW)
J.Jones, 16.2
Bentley, 15.3 (for 3 games before IR)
Hollister, 13.8 (missed 6 games to injury)
Chung, 12.5 (snap count increase)
DMAC, 12.4 (significant snaps count increase)
Burkhead, 11.7 (some coverage for 3 games before IR)
Guy, 11.6 (mostly blocking)
Develin, 11.0 (mostly blocking)
Crossen, 10.4
Hogan, 10.0 (first season on Pats' coverage units)
Simon, 10.0 (some on coverage units)
JMAC, 9.5 (coverage units)
Shelton, 8.5 (blocking units, replacing Branch)
KVN, 8.0

** So, Grigsby and Grissom have now been shed and replaced by McClellan and Humber.
--- Grigsby essentially replaced Marsh during last season and did very well. It's possible, I suppose, that simply wasn't executing new assignments in response to the new rules very well this year. He also wasn't much as a reserve/sub LB, so Humber may be an upgrade there, too.
--- Grissom was out 6 consecutive games this season with an ankle injury. It's possible that he simply wasn't physically up to the task when he came back for the one game.

The only "new replacements" on coverage units have been Bentley (only 3 games before IR), Crossen, Hogan (brand new at it), Simon (for only 5 games) and JMac. Meanwhile coverage units have also been missing significant snaps from Hollister and Burkhead.

All the other ST snaps that were lost with Richards, Bademosi, Bolden and M.Flowers going away have been replaced by in-house ST veterans increasing their ST snap counts.

Hope this helps clarify things from a roster perspective.

 

[Ring 6]

I know what you're saying. I disagree. "2 bad plays" could be offset with 2 good plays or by bad plays from other teams etc.. etc.. or IOW it evens out over ten weeks. Bottom line is that they have not been good at all.

Huh?
How do you offset a 97 yard ko return with one good play with regard to average per kick return?
Aside from 3 poor returns the kr average is 22. That’s not great but decent. So they have been decent aside from a couple of breakdowns. Doesn’t mean the breakdowns aren’t important, but it provides context.

IF you stifle an offense all day and win 40-7 and they ran 19 times for 35 yards before breaking off a garbage time 95 yard td run, you end allowing 6.5 yards per rush. To say he run defense sucked all day because of that stat is wrong. Context.