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Roster Evaluation


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OFFENSE
We have one of the very best in the NFL.

We have 2 quality starters at WR. We have 2 backups in Hogan and Dorsett. We have a contributor in Patterson. We have 2 quality starters in Michel and White.
This is more than enough skills players to make us on of the very best offenses in the NFL behind an elite quarterback. Production at TE is a plus.

The ONLY issue for me on the offense is the health of the OL. I believe that both Mason and Brown are pro-bowl quality when healthy. They are certainly quality starters. We have backups who can start when needed: Waddle and Karras.
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I don't think that it is a bad thing to be arguing about who is our most effective #3 WR. It is good that we have 2 candidates plus a specialty player.



I think he's a backup on any other team as is Hogan. I think Bill likes Hogan because he's a better blocker and can run slot routes as well as outside routes. I think Dorsett gets better separation and Brady has more confidence in him. In a game like the Titans where they gave up on the run anyway I would have liked to see more Dorsett.
 
I know its been mentioned, but I gotta say that Shelton and K. Davis are just useless. They pretty much just disappear the entire game. We really need to rebuild the DL this offseason.
 
I guess that you are presuming that Wynn won't be good enough to at least share time with Cannon. Sure, we could draft a #4 OT to compete with Waddle for a roster spot. HOWEVER, if we re-sign Brown, I don't OT is the major concern come draft time. We have will have 6 quality starters at OL plus Karras as a backup.

I won't guess on who we will sign in free agency. But, my guess is that we will sign the usual WR or 2 or 3 to add to Edelman and Gordon. So, for me, the draft will be all about the front 7. TE is a free agency priority as always. Finding a blocking TE who can be a top receiving threat is hard to find in the draft. Almost none are ready to contribute as a top blocker.

Offensive and defensive tackle needs to be addressed in the next draft.

Clemson has a ton of talented guys that could help us immediately. OT - Hyatt. DT - Wilkins or Lawrence.

Alabama has a ton of players that could help us immediately. OT - Williams. DT - Davis or q Williams.

2 dt’s And 1 OT are really needed.
 
Harmon is one of the best backups in the league. I would certainly consider him a solid backup.

First off I threw this together quickly just to open the topic. I'm sure there will be major disagreements.

I've taken a tiered approach when assigning a designation to players. This isn't where they fit into the Patriots but how they compare to peers around the league and if they were an FA how other teams might view them. I left off players such as Wynn or Dawson who we have no frame of reference for. A contributor are guys who cycle in situationally here and would do the same elsewhere.

Somebody like David Andrews obviously wouldn't start everywhere but I think he could start on half the teams so he's a starter. Fringe players are guys who might be out of the league if not on the Pats.

I know with the talk on this board this week people will disagree with Brady still being elite but if he had the weapons and line Drew Brees has his numbers would be off the charts. Between the inconsistencies with the OL and WRs he's having to throw a lot of balls away. I think Gronk is still a Pro Bowl player but injuries have taken him out of Elite. I might have given Gilmore elite before last week. So that leaves Brady, Gronk and Develin as PB or above talent on this roster and Develin is obviously a niche position. Somebody made reference to this being like the 09 roster and the need to turn it over. After breaking it down I agree.

E-Elite
PB-Pro Bowl
QS-Quality Starter
S-Starter
C-Contributor
QB-Quality Backup
B-Backup
F-Fringe
ST - Special Teams
PS - Practice Squad

C David Andrews S
C/RG Ted Karras B
RG Shaq Mason QS
LG Joe Thuney S
LG James Ferentz B
LT Trent Brown QS
LT/RT LaAdrian Waddle QB
RT Marcus Cannon QS
TE Rob Gronkowski PB
RB James White QS
RB Sony Michel QS
RB Rex Burkhead S
RB Kenjon Barner B
FB James Develin PB
WR/RB Cordelle Patterson C
WR JE11 QS
WR Josh Gordon QS
WR Chris Hogan B
WR Phillip Dorsette B
WR Matthew Slater B/ST
QB Tom Brady E
QB Brian Hoyer B
LDE Trey Flowers QS
LDE Deatrich Wise C
DT Lawrence Guy C
DT Danny Shelton C
DT Malcom Brown C
RDE Adian Clayborn C
RDE Derek Rivers F
LB Dont'a Hightower QS
LB Nicholas Grigsby F
LB Elandon Roberts F
LB Kyle Van Noy C
RCB Stephon Gilmore QS
RCB Jonathan Jones C
LCB Jason McCourty S
LCB J.C. Jackson B
S Patrick Chung QS
S Devin McCourty QS
S Duron Harmon C
S Nate Ebner B/ST
K Stephen Gostkowski QS
P Ryan Allen S
 
Are we giving up on Wynn?

Or, sadly, the Pats could've had their high 2017 and 2018 high OL draft picks do more than just being injured.

But, I agree with drafting another one high.
 
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Harmon is one of the best backups in the league. I would certainly consider him a solid backup.

I think contributor (what OP gave Harmon) is a higher grade than quality backup.
 
Are we giving up on Wynn?

Even if Wynn is a stud, we don't know if Brown is worth a long term deal or how much longer Cannon will be good.
 
Cornerbacks:

JON JONES - He's no Logan Ryan, but he's been pretty good.
... As the "new guy" last season, he was targeted on 11.6% of his snaps. At roughly the same total snaps this season (428 v. 439 in 2017), he's being targeted on 8.9%, roughly the same rate as JMac (8.7%) and Gilmore (8.6%). [JC Jackson, as this year's "new guy", has been targeted on 11.8% of his 110 snaps.]
... Jones' catch rate allowed is up a bit (53% v. 49%), YPC is the same (13.2), flags/tgt up (5.3% v. 3.9%). His "breakup rate" (INT+PBU/tgt) is slightly down (18.4% v. 19.6%), but his tackles/snaps is up (8.9% v. 8.2%). His TDs/tgt is way up (7.9% v. 3.9%), but he's allowed only one big scoring play (Westbrook, WK-2, 61 yds off a pick play).
... He's also effectively tied for 4th most-used guy on ST with Grigsby (avg 16.2 ST snaps/game).
... He's also credited with a couple of pressures and a run stuff, plus drawn a HOLD on the pass rush.
... He's RFA in 2019, so there's certainly no reason to let him walk.

JMAC - Quietly pretty good as starting LCB, essentially replacing Butler.
... He's been targeted slightly less (8.7% of snaps v. 8.9% for Butler), while allowing a 50% catch rate (Butler was 51% in 2017), and only 2.1% TD/tgt (v. Butler's 7.6%).
... He's had a similar "breakup rate" so far (16.7% v. 16.3% for Butler), a higher YPC (15.8 v. 13.7 for Butler), but hasn't been flagged yet (Butler's 2017 rate was 4.3% of tgts).
... JMac' tackles per snap has been good (7.2% v 5.8% for Butler), and he has contributed 95 ST snaps, while Butler contributed 0 last season.

GILMORE - Generally excellent until the Titans game. By far, the best RCB the Pats have had in a long time - maybe ever.
... His tgt rate is up a bit over last season (8.6% v. 8.3%), but his catch rate allowed is way better (40% v. 54%). His YPC is better (12.1 v. 14.2). His TD rate is slightly worse (5.2% v. 4.4%). His breakup rate is also way better (22.4% v. 13.2%), and his "flagged rate" is a bit better (6.9% of tgts v. 7.4%) in spite of the Titans game.
... Gilmore's tackles/snap is down (4.9% v. 6.1%), but he also has a sack and 2 FFs.

JC JACKSON - If not for being flagged 3 times (23% of his tgts), his numbers would be pretty good, for a rookie, and an upgrade over Rowe so far.
... Jackson has been targeted on 11.8% of his 110 snaps (v. 8.1% of 136 snaps for Rowe). He's allowed a 46% catch rate on 13 tgts (Rowe was 64% on 11 tgts), and a YPC of 14.7 (Rowe was 15.1). Jackson has also allowed 0 TDs, while Rowe allowed 2. Jackson has at least "dabbled" with ST (5-10 snaps/game), whereas Rowe played only 13 total ST snaps since the start of 2017.
... It seems unlikely to me that Jackson will be able to boot JMAC out of a starting role this season, but it may be a different story by the beginning of next season.

DAWSON - I haven't seen enough of Dawson at an NFL level to pigeonhole him as a "slot CB" or a boundary corner - or even as a pure CB at all. However many snaps he gets the rest of this season, I wouldn't be surprised if he gets at least a taste of pretty much every role in the secondary. Where he fits best in the secondary probably won't be known until next season (all of which is assuming that he's actually any good at the NFL level at any position).

Overall, I'd say that Cornerback is in pretty good shape as a group with one elite boundary guy starting, one solid veteran boundary guy (placeholder) starting, a good slot starter, and two promising rookies. They haven't been anywhere near "lockdown", and have given up too many splash plays, IMHO. But, they've allowed only 7 of 21 passing TDs and have 5 of the Pats 11 INTs (8th in the league).
 
Even if Wynn is a stud, we don't know if Brown is worth a long term deal or how much longer Cannon will be good.

Sure, waste a top pick on an OT instead of a DT of LB in the thought that Brown isn't good enough.

In any case, this will solved LONG BEFORE the draft. The team will extend Brown or they won't.
 
Ya I have no clue how to rate him. If Dawson can play at a starter level that would be a great bump for the defense especially in the slot.

As I opined in another comment, JJ is no Logan Ryan, but he's actually been pretty soild in the slot role. It would be at least somewhat surprising to me if Dawson ascends to a starting role at any position in the secondary before the end of this season .... and he could ultimately end up in almost any DB role, IMHO. I'm not willing to pigeonhole him as a "slot guy" yet.
 
Sure, waste a top pick on an OT instead of a DT of LB in the thought that Brown isn't good enough.

In any case, this will solved LONG BEFORE the draft. The team will extend Brown or they won't.

I wouldn't spend another 1st on a tackle (unless the value was tremendous) but a 2nd? Sure.

I agree that we will have clarity on Brown long before the next draft.
 
I'd be fine if Dawson contributed at all this season. At best he is our #7 DB after McCourty, Chung, Harmon, Gilmore, McCourty and Jones. As a practical matter, Dawson would be competing for reps with Jackson.

As I opined in another comment, JJ is no Logan Ryan, but he's actually been pretty soild in the slot role. It would be at least somewhat surprising to me if Dawson ascends to a starting role at any position in the secondary before the end of this season .... and he could ultimately end up in almost any DB role, IMHO. I'm not willing to pigeonhole him as a "slot guy" yet.
 
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I realy wish Bill were more agressive last year in the draft and traded up for Leighton Van Der Esche. What a difference he would have made.

This Patriots Team and Drafting in the same sentence is awfully painful. They better hope Wynn have a full recovery and plays like a First Rounder next year. Sony and Chubb played on the same College Team. Chubb already have Runs over 60 and 92 yards already as a rookie. Sony's long is just over 30. Sony has power but I'm not seeing that speed. Also Sony is said to be the better pass catcher we haven't seen that aspect of his game yet. Granted he's been injured but I would like to see them pass to him more to make our Offense with him less predictable.
 
Fair enough. We have 7 "top" picks (anyone in the first 4 rounds almost always make the team). Using one for an OT would be fine, but may be unnecessary.

I wouldn't spend another 1st on a tackle (unless the value was tremendous) but a 2nd? Sure.

I agree that we will have clarity on Brown long before the next draft.
 
Andrews is solid but he needs at least one good pass protecting guard next to him. He can be overmatched against bigger DT and often needs help in those specific matchups. Thuney is the real weak link, assuming we’re accepting Mason’s shortcomings in pass protection.

The left side combo of Brown/Thuney has given up:
... 4.5 sks .. 15 QBH .. 14 pressures .. 3 flags

Andrews/Mason/Cannon have given up:
... 1.5 sacks .. 10 QBH .. 9 pressures .. 4 flags

Waddle alone:
... 3 sacks .. 4 QBH .. 10 pressures
 
I'm not sure Hogan is a better blocker than Dorsett but if he is it's not by much imo. The problem for me with judging Dorsett is I'm not sure who I'd take off of the field to get him on.

Anyway I'd like to see more of him somehow. haha

I'm not sure it's a matter of replacing anyone as it is mixing the personnel up a bit more. For the past 5 games, Gordon has been bogarting about 85% of the offensive snaps, with Edelman over 90% and Hogan over 70%.

Dorsett (43 snaps over five games) and Patterson (48 snaps) have both been pushed out of the passing attack, and Patterson saw only one target total v. BUF and GBY (and 21 RB carries). Both Dorsett (83%) and Patterson (75%) have outstanding catch rates
 
I realy wish Bill were more agressive last year in the draft and traded up for Leighton Van Der Esche. What a difference he would have made.
He was that risk/reward type player and so far he has been very good for the Cowboys. They have a lot of speed on D I'd like the Pats to have.
 
He was that risk/reward type player and so far he has been very good for the Cowboys. They have a lot of speed on D I'd like the Pats to have.

I think we could have gotten him by trading pick 23 (first round) and pick 56 (second round). Isiaah wynn could be great but honestly our defense needed to be addressed first in the first round.
 
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Front seven has to be addressed. They are still soft against the run and like to do the waltz with O-lineman when pass rushing. It will be interesting to see what happens with Trey Flowers. Most people on here think he's going to be one of the highest paid DE's in the NFL which is mind boggling. I will eat my words if he is. Shelton will be gone, Malcolm Brown will be gone. Wise Jr. is a rotational guy at best. Rivers is an absolute disappointment considering how the D-line is playing, yet he still can't get on the field. I predict the front seven gets blown up in the off season.

WR's also need to be addressed. I see a group that can't get consistent separation. Brady has been double clutching a lot this year and seems like to 2nd guess when he wants to throw it. WR's looks like they are conjoined at the hip with DB's too much. This offense needs some youth at WR. Calvin Ridley was the guy I wanted in the first round and couldn't believe he fell to the Pats but they passed.
 
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