Julian Edelman

[oceansizer]

In 2013 thru 2015, Edelman's catch rate averaged 69.2%.
In the 2013 & 2014 playoffs, his catch rate averaged 68.9%.

In the 2015 post-season, his catch rate was 58.6%.
In the 2016 regular season, his catch rate was 61.6%.
In the 2016 post-season (at age 30), he averaged 58.3%, which was dragged down by a 38.5% catch rate in the SB.

In addition to recovering from an ACL, which may slow him down a bit, Edelman's catch rate(at age 32) may not be as fabulous as it once was. Tempering expectations a bit for this season, especially for the next few games, may be a prudent approach.

I am talking more about his experience and connection with Brady than his stats. Of course his production after his recovery and presence of Gordon and other offensive weapons is going to to getting lower but his football intelligence should be on its right place.We need Edelman especially during 3rd downs and some critical situations.I think he will be fine even after a long absence.

 

[maineman209]

Catch rates can be telling, but also require some context (that I admittedly don't have in this case). One high level observation though would be that, as his reputation has grown as a wide receiver, considerably more attention has been paid to him by defenses. This can lead to lower catch rates as he faces stiffer competition. Not that it's not a significant observation either way, just that catch rate only probably doesn't tell us everything we need to know.

OTOH, it seems somewhat unlikely to me that - after three consecutive seasons of exceptional production - defenses suddenly caught on to how good he was and started covering him better.

 

[Sicilian]

OTOH, it seems somewhat unlikely to me that - after three consecutive seasons of exceptional production - defenses suddenly caught on to how good he was and started covering him better.

A fair point, for sure. I don't have concrete enough research to say definitively, my point was more just that catch rate is a piece of a puzzle, not the whole picture. To my anecdotal eye, Edelman didn't seem any better or worse in 2016 than I remember from previous years, but that's the dreaded "eye-test" so take it with a big grain. I guess my overall point is that I'm more concerned that the injury has cost him a step, more so than he was in the process of losing one already.

 

[Coolade2]

Just hope he doesn't get the dropsies... from being too amped up after missing all that time....and BTW Brady has thrown a bunch of inaccurate balls. We shall see.

 

[PatsFan2]

Just hope he doesn't get the dropsies... from being too amped up after missing all that time....and BTW Brady has thrown a bunch of inaccurate balls. We shall see.

Brady will feel like a kid in a candy shop with Edelman back...he gives Brady those great separation windows Edelman is a QB's dream. That said if Edelman is doubled Brady can always throw it up to Gronk or Flash Gordon who have to mitts and body to get it in traffic.

 

[maineman209]

I am talking more about his experience and connection with Brady than his stats. Of course his production after his recovery and presence of Gordon and other offensive weapons is going to to getting lower but his football intelligence should be on its right place.We need Edelman especially during 3rd downs and some critical situations.I think he will be fine even after a long absence.

I expect that Edelman will be taking a significant number of tgts/game. I doubt that it will be the 9.9 tgts/game that he saw in 2016 (29% of total tgts), especially if his catch rate is down to around 60%, and especially at the range of route that Edelman typically runs (10-11 yards or even less, given his YAC).

I'm sure he'll get open on those 3rd downs and critical situations, but perhaps not as easily as he once did, and perhaps not with quite as much separation.

And, he still has to make the catch. While his catch rate stats from 2016 aren't guaranteed to be 100% predictive of his 2018 success (or lack thereof), Edelman is 32 and coming off an ACL, so "tempering expectations" only seems rational before we've actually seen him perform in a real game.

 

[Coolade2]

Brady will feel like a kid in a candy shop with Edelman back...he gives Brady those great separation windows Edelman is a QB's dream. That said if Edelman is doubled Brady can always throw it up to Gronk or Flash Gordon who have to mitts and body to get it in traffic.

That's a good point. Since Brady having his binky should produce a more relaxed QB overall... Leading to better accuracy and decision making.. should be fun to watch... Really a lot like the first time we saw welker, Moss , Brady together.

 

[PatsFan2]

That's a good point. Since Brady having his binky should produce a more relaxed QB overall... Leading to better accuracy and decision making.. should be fun to watch... Really a lot like the first time we saw welker, Moss , Brady together.

Sometimes I wonder what could have been if we had Edelman last year with Cooks. That would have been a lethal Offense we threatened every area of the Field. Water under the bridge now but in Three Wide sets either Dorsett or Hogan should really benefit with the coverage they will now see.

 

[maineman209]

A fair point, for sure. I don't have concrete enough research to say definitively, my point was more just that catch rate is a piece of a puzzle, not the whole picture. To my anecdotal eye, Edelman didn't seem any better or worse in 2016 than I remember from previous years, but that's the dreaded "eye-test" so take it with a big grain. I guess my overall point is that I'm more concerned that the injury has cost him a step, more so than he was in the process of losing one already.

There is nothing "definitive" to this, and I never intended there to be.

I'm not saying that it will turn out that Edelman has fallen off the cliff, or anything remotely like that. I merely point out that - in addition to him being two years older and coming off an ACL, there's at least some statistical evidence to suggest that he experienced a decline in effectiveness during his last season. It's just another reason for "tempering expectations", but also a quantifiable one.

It may be that McD was using Edelman somewhat differently in 2016 than he had in the past. That might suggest that, if McD tries to use him the same way in 2018, the result with the Edelman of today could be worse.

Clearly, Edelman seems unlikely to be catching 85 of 120 tgts for 900+ yards from wk-5 thru wk-17 this season. He may even and up being #3 or #4 in tgts/game. But that's also not to say that his presence will have no positive impact at all, just that it may not show up on the stat sheet, or in critical situations, as much or as often as many people seem to expect it to.

 

[Coolade2]

Sometimes I wonder what could have been if we had Edelman last year with Cooks. That would have been a lethal Offense we threatened every area of the Field. Water under the bridge now but in Three Wide sets either Dorsett or Hogan should really benefit with the coverage they will now see.

You know what.. last year I had predicted 3 out of 4 SBs before the season based on the binky theory. I made comparison of Edelman to Troy Brown who was Brady's binky back then, making huge plays, also returning punts etc. Key player giving Brady that confidence...

Then he gets injured... And they came up short.

 

[Bradyking12]

Sometimes I wonder what could have been if we had Edelman last year with Cooks. That would have been a lethal Offense we threatened every area of the Field. Water under the bridge now but in Three Wide sets either Dorsett or Hogan should really benefit with the coverage they will now see.

I think with Gordon we will see a superior version of what last year could of been.

 

[PatsFan2]

You know what.. last year I had predicted 3 out of 4 SBs before the season based on the binky theory. I made comparison of Edelman to Troy Brown who was Brady's binky back then, making huge plays, also returning punts etc. Key player giving Brady that confidence...

Then he gets injured... And they came up short.

We need some young blood at WR really hope Dorsett can be one moving forward. After the 2o19 Season Edelman becomes a FA also Hogan is a FA after this season. Hogan will turn 30 so a two or three year extension might not be out of the question. I hope Hogan don't price himself out of our reach we have done well with guys like him.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

Rob Ninkovich has been working out with Julian Edelman.
While he may be on a "pitch count" he will be good.

Rob Ninkovich has been working out with Julian Edelmen. Here’s what he saw. | Boston.com

 

[PatsFan2]

Rob Ninkovich has been working out with Julian Edelman.
While he may be on a "pitch count" he will be good.

Did you give Nink some new and improve cat quickness for Edelman??

 

[Coolade2]

Did you give Nink some new and improve cat quickness for Edelman??

Edelman played defense a few years ago.(like Troy Brown did)..

 

[SammyBlueCat]

Did you give Nink some new and improve cat quickness for Edelman??

This may be a question that is better answered by a dawg.
Rumor is that he played rough.

 

[Uptown]

Baby Jules

 

[bormio]

Baby Jules

He blocks as well as some of them

 

[maineman209]

He blocks as well as some of them

During pre-season, someone posted a clip of Jules blocking a DB on the backside of a running play. Jules gets into the guy off the snap, and trucks him backwards for a couple yards before pancaking him. THEN Jules pushes the guy back to the ground when he tries to get up.

Mean-***ed SOB, abusing a poor widdle DB like that.

 

[turkeyneck]

During pre-season, someone posted a clip of Jules blocking a DB on the backside of a running play. Jules gets into the guy off the snap, and trucks him backwards for a couple yards before pancaking him. THEN Jules pushes the guy back to the ground when he tries to get up.

Mean-***ed SOB, abusing a poor widdle DB like that.

If only he was big enough to be a guard...