Last 5 Draft Classes

[patsinthesnow]

There’s no denying this rough patch of drafts playing a role in the lack of a young nucleus on the team. Some posters ask for teams that have drafted better or worse in the last few years.

Worse:

Pittsburgh Steelers All-Time Draft History | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Smith-Schuster, Watt, Hargrave, Shazier, Tuitt, & Conner vs. Flowers, Mason, Thuney, Garoppolo, White & Wise. I’ll take NE.

Seattle Seahawks All-Time Draft History | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Clark, Lockett, Britt..now that’s a disaster (hence why their window is basically shut).

GB is also a coinflip:

Green Bay Packers All-Time Draft History | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Clark, Martinez, Clinton-Dix, Adams & Lindsley. I’d probably go NE.

Green Bay Packers All-Time Draft History | Pro-Football-Reference.com
——————————

Three teams drafting in the 20-30s year in and year out for the most part. The draft is tough when the Pats, Steelers, Packers & Seahawks come out with just 4-5 impact players in four drafts (2014-2017).

Tough to point to a solution as it’s more or less a lottery. The team could consider trading up to the teens & trust their best in the league UDFA process to come through for 1-2 players a year to make up the difference in less picks.

 

[luuked]

Return to the mean is often misunderstood, such as in your case. It does mean that if you are average at doing something and finish first, the next time you'll finish last. Rather, it means that you are average at doing something and finish first, the next time you'll finish near the middle. And then on subsequent tries, you'll continually finish near the middle, since that's your mean, and that first win will ultimately become statistically less relevant.

A sample size of five drafts from 2009-13 and then 2014-18 is pretty big and not like looking at one draft or just a handful of picks. I don't know the exact rankings if you try to put objective values on the draft picks over those periods, but I'm guessing we're looking at somewhere between #1 and #3 in the NFL over the 2009-13 period and between #29 and #32 over the 2014-18 period. If that is accurate, or even give or take quite a few ranking spots, that suggests that this actually isn't explained by statistical variance and more likely is a negative change in the decision making process.

I know what a return to the mean means. I have done stats on several published molecular biology and bioinformatics papers. I understand.

How about you dont cherry pick the time periods to support your hypothesis and just pool them all together into one continuous sample because that's what it is. Nothing major (like lets say a CBA that changes the landscape) happened between 2013 and 2014. Now if you would want to make an argument that the CBA that was signed before 2011 changed things by my guest and I will listen to your take on what it was it changed.

What it boils down to for me is that if you just compare the Pats drafts to any other reasonably sized window of another team you will not see any significant difference in their drafting success. That is if you somehow find a way to normalize for drafting positions.

 

[Brady6]

And now make one of those for the other 31 teams and you might have an epiphany.

So other teams not doing a good job makes us not doing a good job acceptable? You and others want to talk about how Belichick is the best ever but then justify his failures by pointing out others making similar mistakes.

I wish I was your kid growing up if I failed a class I could just tell you the other kids that failed too and you’d give me my allowance.

 

[TennisBallHead]

Dennis Eckersley - "Yuck".

 

[Brady6]

There’s no denying this rough patch of drafts playing a role in the lack of a young nucleus on the team. Some posters ask for teams that have drafted better or worse in the last few years.

Worse:

Pittsburgh Steelers All-Time Draft History | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Smith-Schuster, Watt, Hargrave, Shazier, Tuitt, & Conner vs. Flowers, Mason, Thuney, Garoppolo, White & Wise. I’ll take NE.

Seattle Seahawks All-Time Draft History | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Clark, Lockett, Britt..now that’s a disaster (hence why their window is basically shut).

GB is also a coinflip:

Green Bay Packers All-Time Draft History | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Clark, Martinez, Clinton-Dix, Adams & Lindsley. I’d probably go NE.

Green Bay Packers All-Time Draft History | Pro-Football-Reference.com
——————————

Three teams drafting in the 20-30s year in and year out for the most part. The draft is tough when the Pats, Steelers, Packers & Seahawks come out with just 4-5 impact players in four drafts (2014-2017).

Tough to point to a solution as it’s more or less a lottery. The team could consider trading up to the teens & trust their best in the league UDFA process to come through for 1-2 players a year to make up the difference in less picks.

You can’t use Garoppolo he isn’t even on this team.

 

[patsinthesnow]

You can’t use Garoppolo he isn’t even on this team.

He netted us the 43rd overall pick in the 2018 draft. He counts.

 

[luuked]

So there’s no good players after the first round?

How many times have we heard the Pats being praised for maneuvering around the draft better than anyone?

So “picking late” isn’t exactly a valid excuse.

1st round. Yes. After that, they usually have a lot ammo to do whatever they want.

That’s what I was referring to.

There are a couple of good players left which is why trading down and taking multiple shots is never a bad idea once you are out of the blue chipper range. That being said the density of "elite" players after those first few picks drops substantially.

My issue is with people treating first rounders as if they are anything special. Once you are past the top 10-12 players the rest of the first round and the rest of day 2 more or less blends into the same skill range. So if you are the Patriots who pick at the end of each round it really makes no difference except for availability and long term roster development plans who you take where. The player at #30 is not much better than what you will get at #60. A lot of the future success of those players in that range is just based on fit whereas those blue chippers in the top 12 will succeed essentially everywhere.

 

[Brady6]

He netted us the 43rd overall pick in the 2018 draft. He counts.

Great and what do we have as a result of that? The potential to select the next Jordan Richards?

 

[Brady6]

There’s no denying this rough patch of drafts playing a role in the lack of a young nucleus on the team. Some posters ask for teams that have drafted better or worse in the last few years.

Worse:

Pittsburgh Steelers All-Time Draft History | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Smith-Schuster, Watt, Hargrave, Shazier, Tuitt, & Conner vs. Flowers, Mason, Thuney, Garoppolo, White & Wise. I’ll take NE.

Seattle Seahawks All-Time Draft History | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Clark, Lockett, Britt..now that’s a disaster (hence why their window is basically shut).

GB is also a coinflip:

Green Bay Packers All-Time Draft History | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Clark, Martinez, Clinton-Dix, Adams & Lindsley. I’d probably go NE.

Green Bay Packers All-Time Draft History | Pro-Football-Reference.com
——————————

Three teams drafting in the 20-30s year in and year out for the most part. The draft is tough when the Pats, Steelers, Packers & Seahawks come out with just 4-5 impact players in four drafts (2014-2017).

Tough to point to a solution as it’s more or less a lottery. The team could consider trading up to the teens & trust their best in the league UDFA process to come through for 1-2 players a year to make up the difference in less picks.

You picking our draft over the Steelers is actually laughable.

 

[luuked]

So other teams not doing a good job makes us not doing a good job acceptable? You and others want to talk about how Belichick is the best ever but then justify his failures by pointing out others making similar mistakes.

I wish I was your kid growing up if I failed a class I could just tell you the other kids that failed too and you’d give me my allowance.

BB is definitely among the best ever in terms of assembling a roster. But that is not limited to the draft but fortunately there are multiple avenues to that. In fact his propensity to not care much about drafting pedigree and willingness to cut his losses early is one of the things that make him so much better than most others.

The draft is not something you can master the same way you can formulate a roster philosophy or cap management. It is a crapshoot where decisions are made based on incomplete information and a lot of projection. The best thing you can have is an edge and multiplying your picks is statistically speaking the best edge in a process where you can't predict how something will work out.

Expecting him to outperform anyone else consistently is bonkers.

 

[Brady6]

BB is definitely among the best ever in terms of assembling a roster. But that is not limited to the draft but fortunately there are multiple avenues to that. In fact his propensity to not care much about drafting pedigree and willingness to cut his losses early is one of the things that make him so much better than most others.

The draft is not something you can master the same way you can formulate a roster philosophy or cap management. It is a crapshoot where decisions are made based on incomplete information and a lot of projection. The best thing you can have is an edge and multiplying your picks is statistically speaking the best edge in a process where you can't predict how something will work out.

Expecting him to outperform anyone else consistently is bonkers.

I would prefer posters in the Patsfans draft thread doing our draft over Belichick, look at the mocks they consistently outperform who Belichick drafts.

 

[luuked]

I would prefer posters in the Patsfans draft thread doing our draft over Belichick, look at the mocks they consistently outperform who Belichick drafts.

I would love to live in an alternate universe where I know how any given player would perform if drafted by the Patriots. Because there is no guarantee that any player would develop or be used the way he is on any other team.

Hell looking at Cooks in LA and Chandler Jones in Arizona should make this obvious. Unless insanely talented you need players that are a fit for any given system.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

How about you dont cherry pick the time periods to support your hypothesis and just pool them all together into one continuous sample because that's what it is. Nothing major (like lets say a CBA that changes the landscape) happened between 2013 and 2014. Now if you would want to make an argument that the CBA that was signed before 2011 changed things by my guest and I will listen to your take on what it was it changed.

This thread is about their drafts between 2014-18. It’s cherry picking to contrast those five years with the five years prior to that? The CBA has little if anything to do with talent evaluation and drafting; it has to do with rookie contracts but shouldn’t impact a team’s talent evaluation. You do understand that correct? Or are you going to argue about this too?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

BB is definitely among the best ever in terms of assembling a roster. But that is not limited to the draft but fortunately there are multiple avenues to that. In fact his propensity to not care much about drafting pedigree and willingness to cut his losses early is one of the things that make him so much better than most others.

The draft is not something you can master the same way you can formulate a roster philosophy or cap management. It is a crapshoot where decisions are made based on incomplete information and a lot of projection. The best thing you can have is an edge and multiplying your picks is statistically speaking the best edge in a process where you can't predict how something will work out.

Expecting him to outperform anyone else consistently is bonkers.

What he’s done in consistently outperforming everyone else since 2000 - despite a lower draft position each year - is bonkers. These last five years have fallen off a lot in the draft. Both can be true.

 

[State]

If Lions rookie guard Frank Ragnow makes it to the Hall of Fame 20 years from now, no doubt he will show film clips of his 3rd game in the NFL....tossing Malcom Brown around like a beanbag

I re-watched the game, focusing on #77 LG for the Lions. Ragnow. What a game! Total domination by an interior OL. Like I haven’t seen since the 1982 Rose Bowl when Irv Eatman did the same thing to Michigan playing for UCLA.

In this game and vs. this competition Malcom Brown looked like he belonged in the CFL.

 

[varjao]

Hell looking at Cooks in LA and Chandler Jones in Arizona should make this obvious. Unless insanely talented you need players that are a fit for any given system.

That also shows they are implementing rocket science in the O and D playbooks.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

BB is definitely among the best ever in terms of assembling a roster. But that is not limited to the draft but fortunately there are multiple avenues to that. In fact his propensity to not care much about drafting pedigree and willingness to cut his losses early is one of the things that make him so much better than most others.

The draft is not something you can master the same way you can formulate a roster philosophy or cap management. It is a crapshoot where decisions are made based on incomplete information and a lot of projection. The best thing you can have is an edge and multiplying your picks is statistically speaking the best edge in a process where you can't predict how something will work out.
Expecting him to outperform anyone else consistently is bonkers.

I think I saw you write this earlier too?

You would think so but it's just not true.
I read this elsewhere too but this is from Forbes 2018
But one thing that surprisingly isn’t a factor is a team’s total number of draft picks. It may seem intuitive that having more draft picks would result in greater total performance, but it turns out that there’s very little relationship between the two. In fact, there’s almost no correlation at all (R-squared score of just 8.1%). Case in point: San Francisco leads all teams with 51 picks over the last five years, yet the Niners still rank third-worst in total AV per season from those selections.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I would prefer posters in the Patsfans draft thread doing our draft over Belichick, look at the mocks they consistently outperform who Belichick drafts.

Be careful. Some here think it's rocket science & only a chosen few can perform this task.

 

[Brady6]

I would love to live in an alternate universe where I know how any given player would perform if drafted by the Patriots. Because there is no guarantee that any player would develop or be used the way he is on any other team.

Hell looking at Cooks in LA and Chandler Jones in Arizona should make this obvious. Unless insanely talented you need players that are a fit for any given system.

What did you think of Belichick wanting to trade Gronkowski?

 

[Silver Blue&Red]

… and we've been to 2 super bowls, and won one since then, so.