Last 5 Draft Classes

[luuked]

And now make one of those for the other 31 teams and you might have an epiphany.

 

[luuked]

Yeah that’s pretty awful. Can’t wait for the discussion on this.

Get ready for the “we pick late” excuse.

Yep. Why can't we get a player like Joey Bosa, Myles Garrett, Roquan Smith, Marshon Lattimore or Jalen Ramsey with our first pick ? I mean they are all first rounders amirite ?

 

[iapatsfan]

If Lions rookie guard Frank Ragnow makes it to the Hall of Fame 20 years from now, no doubt he will show film clips of his 3rd game in the NFL....tossing Malcom Brown around like a beanbag

It was embarrassing to watch. He would have been more effective by simply falling to the ground and remaining immobile. Much better than being pushed backwards 7yds. There was a running play to the left side for about 8 yds where we had 3 defenders pancaked on the same play. I don't know that I've ever seen that before.

All he needed was to face the Pats D.

Lions' Frank Ragnow shakes off rough start, shines bright in Week 3 | NFL Analysis | Pro Football Focus

 

[Nunchucks]

Yep. Why can't we get a player like Joey Bosa, Myles Garrett, Roquan Smith, Marshon Lattimore or Jalen Ramsey with our first pick ? I mean they are all first rounders amirite ?

Are you trying to infer that the Patriots have **** for talent on the roster because they pick near the bottom if the first round or because they trade back so much and have so many reach picks like Jordan Richards?

 

[luuked]

Are you trying to infer that the Patriots have **** for talent on the roster because they pick near the bottom if the first round or because they trade back so much and have so many reach picks like Jordan Richards?

Maybe I should make this my signature. Lets write it again..

The first 10-12 picks in a draft are where you want to be (+/- a few picks depending on how good a particular draft year is). Then the next 50-70 picks have the same kind of talent. So trading back to have more shots is never the wrong thing to do statistically speaking.

Misevaluations suck but they happen. I would love the know the story behind the Richards pick and what went wrong. But in the end this team has not drafted worse or better than any other team in the last decade. Given how they have been drafting consistently around the 30s they have done better than a lot of teams actually.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Should probably swap Brissett out for Phillip Dorsett, not that that changes the outcome at all.

 

[oldrover]

These are the facts of how the last 5 draft classes currently stand. Players in red are not on the 53 man roster. Players in green are starters or starting caliber (IMO). What you make of these results are your own choice, I am only providing the information.

2018 1 Isaiah Wynn IR
2018 1 Sony Michel On 53 man roster, has 2 games played with mixed reviews on performance
2018 2 Duke Dawson IR
2018 5 Ja'Whaun Bentley Played well now on IR
2018 6 Christian Sam Cut on PS
2018 6 Braxton Berrios IR
2018 7 Danny Etling Cut on PS
2018 7 Keion Crossen Play 1 career snap on defense
2018 7 Ryan Izzo Cut on PS
2017 3 Derek Rivers Play in 1 of 19 possible games
2017 3 Antonio Garcia Cut
2017 4 Deatrich Wise Solid sub pass rusher
2017 6 Conor McDermott Cut
2016 2 Cyrus Jones Cut and recently resigned
2016 3 Joe Thuney Solid starting OG
2016 3 Jacoby Brissett Traded
2016 3 Vincent Valentine Cut on PS
2016 4 Malcolm Mitchell Cut
2016 6 Kamu Grugier-Hill Cut
2016 6 Elandon Roberts Solid depth LB
2016 6 Ted Karras Solid backup OL
2016 7 Devin Lucien Cut
2015 1 Malcom Brown Solid starter
2015 2 Jordan Richards Traded
2015 3 Geneo Grissom On the roster, good special teams player
2015 4 Trey Flowers Top tier starting DL
2015 4 Tre' Jackson Cut
2015 4 Shaq Mason Top tier starting OG
2015 5 Joe Cardona Good LS
2015 6 Matthew Wells Traded
2015 6 A.J. Derby Cut
2015 7 Darryl Roberts Cut
2015 7 Xzavier ****son Cut
2014 1 Dominique Easley Cut
2014 2 Jimmy Garoppolo Traded
2014 4 Bryan Stork Cut
2014 4 James White On the roster, top-tier 3DRB
2014 4 Cameron Fleming Lost in FA
2014 6 Jon Halapio Cut
2014 6 Zach Moore Cut
2014 6 Jemea Thomas Cut
2014 7 Jeremy Gallon Cut

7/42 players are Green 16.66%
28/42 players are Red 66.66%
7/42 players are Unrated 16.66%

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Yep. Why can't we get a player like Joey Bosa, Myles Garrett, Roquan Smith, Marshon Lattimore or Jalen Ramsey with our first pick ? I mean they are all first rounders amirite ?

We shouldn't expect that, but we probably shouldn't have expected the draft haul from 2009-2013 either, since there were plenty of Patriots picks who were among the best players in the NFL at their position. It's just such an enormous contrast from 2009-13 to 2014-18 that you have to look at it and ask what's going on. I'm guessing the Patriots are looking at this as well and wondering if they need to make some changes, or if they were just really lucky and then really unlucky. My guess is Belichick doesn't believe luck alone can account for this difference.

Rob Gronkowski
Chandler Jones
Dont'a Hightower
Devin McCourty
Julian Edelman
Marcus Cannon
Nate Solder
Sebastian Vollmer
Jamie Collins
Pat Chung
Shane Vereen
Nate Ebner
Logan Ryan
Duron Harmon

 

[varjao]

Is there another tone of Red to highlight Jordan Richards like, red hot like hell burning flames ?

 

[Kontradiction]

We shouldn't expect that, but we probably shouldn't have expected the draft haul from 2009-2013 either, since there were plenty of Patriots picks who were among the best players in the NFL at their position. It's just such an enormous contrast from 2009-13 to 2014-18 that you have to look at it and ask what's going on. I'm guessing the Patriots are looking at this as well and wondering if they need to make some changes, or if they were just really lucky and then really unlucky. My guess is Belichick doesn't believe luck alone can account for this difference.

Rob Gronkowski
Chandler Jones
Dont'a Hightower
Devin McCourty
Julian Edelman
Marcus Cannon
Nate Solder
Sebastian Vollmer
Jamie Collins
Pat Chung
Shane Vereen
Nate Ebner
Logan Ryan
Duron Harmon

Floyd Reese. Even if he didn't have autonomy, I'm sure his voice was listened to.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

If the BB the GM is so terrible, them BB the coach must be much much better than the GOAT we all believe him to be?

 

[IllegalContact]

To a certain degree, the tide goes up and the tide goes down.......I do think we are entering a relative down time for the team.

the pats won the SB in 2014 with the youngest roster they have had in the BB years.......which made it more challenging for new young bodies to break in.....but also since that time, we have seen a pretty steady stream of still productive veterans make their way somewhere else and they also have not done well to replace them.

in cases with guys like akiem hicks and brandin cooks, they would dump good players without having an alternative.

right now, Michel seems like the only player on the roster with a reasonable chance of improving

 

[varjao]

I hated the Dominique Easley First Round selection in 2014 wish we had Traded the selection. Easley had damaged goods written all over him.

Not only that with his knees but also there were reports of him not being a big fan of football. He would rather play video game than study film. That's a gigantic red flag, there are players that comes to the NFL with this thing about not really being a football fan but they found their place there, they have talent and of course they want to make money, but they tend to check out after a pay day or have motivational problems along. You used to hear more about that in the past I think players have been advised by agents to shut their mouths about that and say all the good things. I would definitely run away from a player with that mindset.

Also, that selection was based on potential, high ceiling if panned out. It was a big IF but that's not really my main issue, my issue is that the Pats were not in position of making a selection based on potential. They already had a good team, a solid foundation. Get players on the field to add up to that not these big risks.

 

[NG Pats Fan]

We shouldn't expect that, but we probably shouldn't have expected the draft haul from 2009-2013 either, since there were plenty of Patriots picks who were among the best players in the NFL at their position. It's just such an enormous contrast from 2009-13 to 2014-18 that you have to look at it and ask what's going on. I'm guessing the Patriots are looking at this as well and wondering if they need to make some changes, or if they were just really lucky and then really unlucky. My guess is Belichick doesn't believe luck alone can account for this difference.

Rob Gronkowski
Chandler Jones
Dont'a Hightower
Devin McCourty
Julian Edelman
Marcus Cannon
Nate Solder
Sebastian Vollmer
Jamie Collins
Pat Chung
Shane Vereen
Nate Ebner
Logan Ryan
Duron Harmon

Such a great talent pool. Unfortunately most of those players are now near or above 30, or have been traded...and we have not replaced these men with talented young men in their early 20s

 

[borg]

If the BB the GM is so terrible, them BB the coach must be much much better than the GOAT we all believe him to be?

BB the GM put Butler on his roster
BB the coach wouldn't play him

 

[RobertWeathers]

To a certain degree, the tide goes up and the tide goes down.......I do think we are entering a relative down time for the team.

the pats won the SB in 2014 with the youngest roster they have had in the BB years.......which made it more challenging for new young bodies to break in.....but also since that time, we have seen a pretty steady stream of still productive veterans make their way somewhere else and they also have not done well to replace them.

in cases with guys like akiem hicks and brandin cooks, they would dump good players without having an alternative.

right now, Michel seems like the only player on the roster with a reasonable chance of improving

Bentley? Crossen?

 

[RobertWeathers]

If the BB the GM is so terrible, them BB the coach must be much much better than the GOAT we all believe him to be?

BB the coach and GM are fine.

 

[luuked]

It's just such an enormous contrast from 2009-13 to 2014-18 that you have to look at it and ask what's going on.

It is called a return to the mean. The same way every NFL team experiences ebbs and flows with their drafts. I don't get why people expect the front office here to outperform every other team at something that is fundamentally a multidimensional lottery.

You know some of the information about the athletes but certainly not all of it. And even if you would know it all, the biggest decider between a player making it or not is still how going from "broke" college student to reasonably (or for a selected few crazy ) wealthy professional player affects them. Good luck projecting this.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

It is called a return to the mean. The same way every NFL team experiences ebbs and flows with their drafts. I don't get why people expect the front office here to outperform every other team at something that is fundamentally a multidimensional lottery.

You know some of the information about the athletes but certainly not all of it. And even if you would know it all, the biggest decider between a player making it or not is still how going from "broke" college student to reasonably (or for a selected few crazy ) wealthy professional player affects them. Good luck projecting this.

Return to the mean is often misunderstood, such as in your case. It does not mean that if you are average at doing something and finish first, the next time you'll finish last. Rather, it means that you are average at doing something and finish first, the next time you'll finish near the middle. And then on subsequent tries, you'll continually finish near the middle, since that's your mean, and that first win will ultimately become statistically less relevant.

A sample size of five drafts from 2009-13 and then 2014-18 is pretty big and not like looking at one draft or just a handful of picks. I don't know the exact rankings if you try to put objective values on the draft picks over those periods, but I'm guessing we're looking at somewhere between #1 and #3 in the NFL over the 2009-13 period and between #29 and #32 over the 2014-18 period. If that is accurate, or even give or take quite a few ranking spots, that suggests that this actually isn't explained by statistical variance and more likely is a negative change in the decision making process.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Yep. Why can't we get a player like Joey Bosa, Myles Garrett, Roquan Smith, Marshon Lattimore or Jalen Ramsey with our first pick ? I mean they are all first rounders amirite ?

So there’s no good players after the first round?

How many times have we heard the Pats being praised for maneuvering around the draft better than anyone?

So “picking late” isn’t exactly a valid excuse.

1st round. Yes. After that, they usually have a lot ammo to do whatever they want.

That’s what I was referring to.