If the if Butler played the we would have won people would offer their reasoning as opinion then fine ... that's sports. But to prove their opinion is valid some of them choose to use the word logic/logical which is erroneous. That brings in slippery slope and hasty generalization just to name a few. One cannot assume Butler would have made the same good plays that his subs made. Also ... cannot assume he would have made good plays vs the bad plays his subs did ... assumptions have no place in a logical argument ... facts are needed ... all of them.
Sports is a best guess ... best opinion of a choice and choices based on statistics, game scheme, health of player, matchups ... just to name a few. Coaches play percentages and hunches ... it's not foolproof and it's why we all have opinions based on what we see.
I myself think we may have performed better if Butler had played ... my opinion is all it is.
But I cannot say with certainty we would have won ... because if he played other results which are unknown would have to be factored in ... unknowns are not part of logic. They are presenting fallacies in informal arguments ... you cannot say something is true because it has not been proven false or false because it has not yet been proven true - the investigation is insufficient and will remain so.