Trading Into 2019

[Love The Drake]

If Mayfield makes it past Buffalo at 12 do we jump ahead of Arizona at 15 to get him? Would GB at 14 take 23 and 43?

That's the exact trade I made on this mock draft website but it was 14 23 and a third for a 5th and 6th.
In this scenario Buff took Allen and I traded up for Mayfield.
I then traded back up for Evans and traded down then took Reid at safety.
I then took Hamilton and Let the draft come to me and took Holton Hill.
Based on the value of the board I took the tackle from North Carolina state I believe it was and then took based on the board I drafted the back from Notre Dame.
I then took Hercules and Kentavius Street.
I ended the draft taking another QB because why not and grabbed Chase Litton.

 

[PWRxWLF]

That's the exact trade I made on this mock draft website but it was 14 23 and a third for a 5th and 6th.
In this scenario Buff took Allen and I traded up for Mayfield.
I then traded back up for Evans and traded down then took Reid at safety.
I then took Hamilton and Let the draft come to me and took Holton Hill.
Based on the value of the board I took the tackle from North Carolina state I believe it was and then took based on the board I drafted the back from Notre Dame.
I then took Hercules and Kentavius Street.
I ended the draft taking another QB because why not and grabbed Chase Litton.

What site was that?

 

[Love The Drake]

Firstpick.com
I think it would be a excellent draft haul

 

[Love The Drake]

First-Pick.com

 

[Tony2046]

We would still have number 31 in the draft and our other second rounder this year. I am thinking long term here dude. You have to give up something to get that number 2.

That is not a long term solution. You're jeopardizing the long term solution at every other position except one and even that's a gamble. You're basically trading all of your lottery scratch tickets including future scratch tickets for one big shiny expensive hit or miss shot.

And although the chances of that high first round pick not being a bust are better the chances of him being the next Aaron Rodgers are much worse.

I'd rather stalk up the defense with talent, solidify the offensive line (TE or OL) and draft a potentially groomable QB in the second round. That would help TB now and any future QB later.

Your proposal basically necessitates Rosen being the next TB or at least AR because he would have to carry the whole damn team.

 

[Tony2046]

Bb has alot of flexibility here. One easy trade i can see is trading a first to a lesser team for their 2019 1st and a mid rounder this year. We could easily end up with a top 15 pick next year in that scenario and still have plenty of high quality pick opportunities this year.

But it all depends on whos there. Im thinking he really didn’t like last years class as he gave up a 1st for a position that wasn’t really a great need. For all we know maybe he’ll have guys there at almost every draft slot and we wont see any major trades.

That's how you move in the draft. You plan ahead. It's still a gamble but much less so than trading all assets for one high round pick this year.

Rephrase: That's how you move up in the draft as a perennial contending team. Or you could be the Jete and tank one year, trade a boatload of picks the next and still jet'n suck.

 

[mgteich]

We've had a lot of discussion about why Belichick won't move up for someone he considers a franchise quarterback. All focus on the fact that Belichick doesn't do things like this.

I agree.

But then, Belichick has never had his franchise quarterback playing in his 19th season.

I don't know how Belichick rates the quarterbacks, whether any of the top 6 have been deemed worthy, and how far they are from those in later rounds. But that isn't the issue. In building the team of the future, as Belichick has done for decades now, one needs to plan ahead. And it makes sense to start planning ahead for a quarterback to possibly play in 2020. We now have 3 picks in the top 50. It is NOT Belichick's way to simply draft 3 players and not consider the future at QB. If no one is worthy, we will trade for at least 2019 first, and perhaps a second so that we be in a similar position next year, if the ammunition is needed. We do not need 3 top 50 picks plus our 2nd and 3rd to meet this year's needs. We simple need our "normal" first 3 picks, one of which we would use for a trade down.

That's how you move in the draft. You plan ahead. It's still a gamble but much less so than trading all assets for one high round pick this year.

Rephrase: That's how you move up in the draft as a perennial contending team. Or you could be the Jete and tank one year, trade a boatload of picks the next and still jet'n suck.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

One caveat on the we could trade up past team X if top player Y falls is that you need a willing trade partner in your target area.

 

[Boomer B]

We've had a lot of discussion about why Belichick won't move up for someone he considers a franchise quarterback. All focus on the fact that Belichick doesn't do things like this.

I agree.

But then, Belichick has never had his franchise quarterback playing in his 19th season.

I don't know how Belichick rates the quarterbacks, whether any of the top 6 have been deemed worthy, and how far they are from those in later rounds. But that isn't the issue. In building the team of the future, as Belichick has done for decades now, one needs to plan ahead. And it makes sense to start planning ahead for a quarterback to possibly play in 2020. We now have 3 picks in the top 50. It is NOT Belichick's way to simply draft 3 players and not consider the future at QB. If no one is worthy, we will trade for at least 2019 first, and perhaps a second so that we be in a similar position next year, if the ammunition is needed. We do not need 3 top 50 picks plus our 2nd and 3rd to meet this year's needs. We simple need our "normal" first 3 picks, one of which we would use for a trade down.

Very good point. If Belichick doesn’t rate any of the QBs available after the first 10 picks or so as franchise QBs, then we may be trading 23 or 31 for a later pick this year and a 1st next year. To be a fly on the wall in the Patriots draft preparation meetings...

This draft may be the most intriguing of the Belichick era

 

[SammyBlueCat]

The issue isn't packaging. The issue is preferring high quality picks rather than players at 23 or 31 who are about the same as 10-20 place lower. Belichick has moved up about as often as he has moved down.

McGinist was picked at 4, Seymour at 6. I believe that Belichik has moved up in the first for several other players.

The point is not the number of picks. After all, we might trade 2-3 picks to move up to 10 and get 2 back in the 4th and 5th.
==
As Ken says, the issue is getting a quality stud, or moving down into the sweet spot, which is slightly different in each draft, partly depending on position, but likely goes through pick 43.

So, for me, I think it reasonable to use 23 and 31 to move (with or without another pick, and picks coming back). It is also reasonable to trade down and trade the other into 2019. Finally, it s just possible that a player we want in available at 23 or 31 with few of the same value and position a bit later, in which case we;d make the pick.

Disagree.

Bill Bellichick was not the head coach when Willie McGinest was drafted Bill Parcells was.
In 1993 the team was 5-11 so moving up was not the daunting task it would be this year.

Bill Bellichick did draft Richard Seymour however he had the draft capital to make a small move up since the team was also 5-11 in 2000.

The post the I wrote and you "disagreed" with was about packaging 3 or more picks for one player to picked. I will say again that such a proposal is dead on arrival.

Coach Bill Bellichick will attempt to make picks that help the team for several years to come and not just this upcoming season.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Very good point. If Belichick doesn’t rate any of the QBs available after the first 10 picks or so as franchise QBs, then we may be trading 23 or 31 for a later pick this year and a 1st next year. To be a fly on the wall in the Patriots draft preparation meetings...

This draft may be the most intriguing of the Belichick era

I think that is what will happen. Brady 3 more seasons with securing another first for 2019 to use as ammo to draft his replacement. That doesn't preclude taking a late round flyer on some obscure QB this year.

 

[Boomer B]

The one flaw in trading for a 2019 1st rounder is that the 2019 QB draft class is supposed to be pretty weak.

 

[supafly]

McGinist was picked at 4, Seymour at 6. I believe that Belichik has moved up in the first for several other players.

We had those high picks because we sucked the year before and went 5-11 both times, not because Bill Belichick moved up significantly (as proposed) to take them.

To take it one step further, Belichick was 6 years away from being the head coach when McGinest was chosen back in 1994.

We saw him move up a bit with Jones and Hightower in 2012. Maybe something similar occurs this year.

 

[supafly]

If CLE gets their QB, the issue is Barklay. If the patriots were there and had pick our QB at 1, I'm not sure that we would think that nay RB is worth the 4th pick in the draft. If it were us, we would take Chubb or move down.

Both organizations have approached the draft in very different manners, but when you consider the fact that their first pick isn’t even going to play this year (according to CLE), then having a blue chip offensive prospect who can play from day one may be the way to go. They most certainly need some help scoring points and having a player of that caliber could benefit them for years to come, particularly when Tyrod Taylor is your QB for the foreseeable future.

 

[Off The Grid]

Any theory that features the Patriots packaging 3 or more picks for one player (even a QB) is dead on arrival.

mgteich care to expand on what exactly you disagree with? When has Bill Bellichick done something like this???

The issue isn't packaging. The issue is preferring high quality picks rather than players at 23 or 31 who are about the same as 10-20 place lower. Belichick has moved up about as often as he has moved down.

McGinist was picked at 4, Seymour at 6. I believe that Belichik has moved up in the first for several other players.

Sorry, Teich, but you're wrong:

01 ~ McGinist was picked at #4 in 1994, it's true.

But Coach Belichick picked Antonio Langham.

At #9.

For the Browns.

02 ~ We didn't trade up for Seymour, either.

03 ~ We traded up for Jones and Hightower...and maybe Graham? That's about it. It's not accurate to say that he's traded up in the 1st for "several" other Players.

 

[mgteich]

I'll try again.

IN MY OPINION, if Belichick sees values, he will trade up to 6 or 8 or 15 to get the stud he wants. I understand those here who think that a stud top 10 player cannot be worth 2 or 3 maybe's with quality somewhere between 23 and 5o. For Belichick, in many drafts, players between 23 and 50 are rated equally. So, FOR ME, it is quite possible that a stud in the top 10 is worth 2 or 3 players much less likely to become starters and stars.

THAT BEING SAID, I haven't a clue whether anyone in the top 10, or even 15 is worth two players in this years draft.

Finally, to say that Belichick doesn't move up is strange to me. I believe that he has moved up 20 times and down 22, in many rounds in many drafts.
=======================
If I had to guess, I would GUESS that we would trade up from 23 for a defensive player, and trade down with 31 picking up a 4th and 5th, and trade 43 into next year.
======
And finally, I do sometimes forget that for some the team started in the last 10 years. When I think of this phase of the franchise, I do think of it starting when Kraft arrived. I do indeed think of McGinist and Seymour as part of this dynasty.

Sorry, Teich, but you're wrong:

01 ~ McGinist was picked at #4 in 1994, it's true.

But Coach Belichick picked Antonio Langham.

At #9.

For the Browns.

02 ~ We didn't trade up for Seymour, either.

03 ~ We traded up for Jones and Hightower...and maybe Graham? That's about it. It's not accurate to say that he's traded up in the 1st for "several" other Players.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Very good point. If Belichick doesn’t rate any of the QBs available after the first 10 picks or so as franchise QBs, then we may be trading 23 or 31 for a later pick this year and a 1st next year. To be a fly on the wall in the Patriots draft preparation meetings...

This draft may be the most intriguing of the Belichick era

But that's assuming that the pick next year will be high enough to get one of those top QBs. . . .

 

[Off The Grid]

I'll try again.

IN MY OPINION, if Belichick see values, he will trade up to 6 or 8 or 15 to get the stud he wants. I understand those here who think that a stud top 10 player cannot be worth 2 or 3 maybe's with quality somewhere between 23 and 5o. For Belichick, in many drafts, players between 23 and 50 are rate equally. So, FOR ME, it is quite possible that a stud in the top 10 is worth 2 or 3 players much less likely to become starters and stars.

THAT BEING SAID, I haven't a clue whether anyone in the top 10, or even 15 is worth two players in this years draft.

Finally, to say that Belichick doesn't move up is strange to me. I believe that he has moved up 20 times and down 22, in many rounds in many drafts.
=======================
If I had to guess, I would GUESS that we would trade up from 23 for a defensive player, and trade down with 31 picking up a 4th and 5th, and trade 43 into next year.
======
And finally, I do sometimes forget that for some the team starter in the last 10 years. When I think of this phase of the franchise, I do think of it starting when Kraft arrived. I do indeed think of McGinist and Seymour as part of this dynasty.

Thanks for the clarification, Sir!!

I like the fundamental thesis that you keep referencing, and indeed in bears repetition because it confounds common thought ~ the thesis that Mad Bill, his history notwithstanding, will trade aggressively into the Top 10 if warranted.

And I agree. Mad Bill is nothing if not pragmatic. 34 Defense? 43 Defense? Smash Mouth Offense? Air Brady? Honey Badger don't care. Just win, baby.

 

[supafly]

One caveat on the we could trade up past team X if top player Y falls is that you need a willing trade partner in your target area.

It takes two parties to make the magic happen. Just ask my wife, who’s likely digging around the nightstand for fresh batteries, as we speak.

 

[supafly]

I'll try again.

IN MY OPINION, if Belichick sees values, he will trade up to 6 or 8 or 15 to get the stud he wants. I understand those here who think that a stud top 10 player cannot be worth 2 or 3 maybe's with quality somewhere between 23 and 5o. For Belichick, in many drafts, players between 23 and 50 are rated equally. So, FOR ME, it is quite possible that a stud in the top 10 is worth 2 or 3 players much less likely to become starters and stars.

THAT BEING SAID, I haven't a clue whether anyone in the top 10, or even 15 is worth two players in this years draft.

Finally, to say that Belichick doesn't move up is strange to me. I believe that he has moved up 20 times and down 22, in many rounds in many drafts.
=======================
If I had to guess, I would GUESS that we would trade up from 23 for a defensive player, and trade down with 31 picking up a 4th and 5th, and trade 43 into next year.
======
And finally, I do sometimes forget that for some the team started in the last 10 years. When I think of this phase of the franchise, I do think of it starting when Kraft arrived. I do indeed think of McGinist and Seymour as part of this dynasty.

The other side of the coin is that we’ve gained very little from high draft choices in recent years, and that’s catching up rather quickly. For a team that places such high value on smart, cost efficient draft picks to restock the pond and play on rookie pacts, this team has not produced much upper echelon talent, lately. That’s putting it mildly.

You can look to almost any position and argue the need for a top round draft pick, and that’s even including safety (due to age, packages used) and IOL (Mason will demand big bucks next spring). Belichick has always played the percentages, and has always alluded to how much of a crapshoot the draft really is. I’d be shocked to see him give up his turn(s) at the dart board in the manner that some are suggesting, in the hopes that ONE player may end up developing.

Moving up a little? Sure. Hence your 20 times reference. Move up to the top 6 or 8 picks? No way in hell. It would be insanely stupid. Again, it seems as though some fail to recall 2011 when he wouldn’t move up 6 spots to draft JJ Watt, and that’s the year we had 2 firsts, 2 seconds, and 2 thirds. I’m not saying that he won’t move up, but how often has he given up major capital to move up in the first round in such dramatic fashion? Ever? Maybe Jones and Hightower, but would you consider that losing out on the kind of capital that it would cost to get in to the top 6-8 picks?