2018 Combine

[WaterfallJumper]

Couldn't agree more. Production on the field of play is more important to me than the vast majority of these combine metrics. It's why I'm wary about the likes of Sam Hubbard as a 1st rounder, who has all the boxes ticked, but hasn't really ever put it together on the field.

While I'm mostly in agreement, even production isn't as important for me as translatable traits. Chandler Jones is my go to example. He had, what, 4.5 sacks his final year in school? But clearly he had the latent talent to succeed. The trick is determining if production is inflated/suppressed by scheme, and then figuring out if the skillsets apply to your scheme. Everyone needs technique improvement in the pros, but some players acclimate more quickly. Sometimes athletic ability can produce a player profile that is really promising down the road, but the technique/snap count hasn't resulted in stat sheet production. I believe Hubbard falls into this category, and he will continue to improve.

Also -- and this is almost impossible to determine without getting to know a player -- it's important to consider personality, work ethic, and general intelligence / learning ability. Anyone can learn something new, but aptitude depends on several limiting factors. GMs want to mitigate risk as much as possible if there's not clear production and testing results.

 

[holyredeemer]

Couldn't agree more. Production on the field of play is more important to me than the vast majority of these combine metrics. It's why I'm wary about the likes of Sam Hubbard as a 1st rounder, who has all the boxes ticked, but hasn't really ever put it together on the field.

Ah, but there’s a catch. Production on the college fieild doesn’t always translate to production on the NFL field. I’d hate to be a GM. One of the biggest things fans judge you over is your ability to find talent in a crapshoot.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

My favorite example of production concerns in college, courtesy of NFL Hall of Fame voter Ron Borges.

On a day when they could have had impact players David Terrell or Koren Robinson or the second best tackle in the draft Kenyatta Walker, they took Georgia defensive tackle Richard Seymour who had 1 1/2 sacks last year in the pass-happy SEC, and is too tall to play tackle at 6-6 and too slow to play defensive end. This genius move was followed by trading out of a spot where they could have gotten the last decent receiver in the draft Robert Ferguson and settled for tackle Matt Light, who will not help any time soon.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

Every year you keep arguing not to trade down as if the gap from 31 to 43 is that huge. The reality is that after the first 10-15 picks (and sometimes even less) there is no clear BPA anymore but team middle/longterm needs start to dominate picks.

There are only so many blue chip players around each year and once they are gone overall it really doesnt matter too much anymore. The only true difference between 31 and 43 is the fifth year option.

Obviously if someone who the scouting department thinks of as a starter (e.g. Malcom Brown) gets past teams that were projected (by your own scouting dept) to take him it is a different story.

In other words 31 doesnt make it any more or less likely to produce an impact player than 43. Lombardi said it last year.. Draft picks by themselves are overrated. What you need are players attached to that draft pick.

No. There's still talent at 31. Bill sometimes likes to have those extra picks to have that quantity over quality. After giving up 41 points to a backup QB this team needs playmakers on defense. They can get that in first couple of picks and maybe add something in free agency. LB and maybe add one in free agency.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

No. There's still talent at 31. Bill sometimes likes to have those extra picks to have that quantity over quality. After giving up 41 points to a backup QB this team needs playmakers on defense. They can get that in first couple of picks and maybe add something in free agency. LB and maybe add one in free agency.

It's like some people just never learn.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

It's like some people just never learn.

Our defense gave up 41 points in the super bowl. I never thought i would see that even with the injuries. It's clear as day that this team needs some players on defense especially at LB. They might need another corner because of the butler departure and maybe another body upfront on the DL.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Our defense gave up 41 points in the super bowl. I never thought i would see that even with the injuries. It's clear as day that this team needs some players on defense especially at LB. They might need another corner because of the butler departure and maybe another body upfront on the DL.

It literally has nothing to do with trading down though. . . .

But let's stick to the Combine. Davis just ran 4.53 at 6'1 206. He's one of the most physical corner I've watched, other than Devontae Harris (who just ran really well!) and either one would be a great pairing with Gilmore.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Great job Alexander! Love it. He's lockdown.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

My two-year old is watching with me today, and before every run, he yells "set, go!!"

 

[Snooky97]

Parry Nickerson's 40 is fairly quick... Might have to look into him as a late round project.

 

[Snooky97]

Great job Alexander! Love it. He's lockdown.

That was a huge 40 for him. I think our CB's situation is a lot better than people think. With J.Jones and Gilmore, get another guy like Carlton Davis, Alexander..

 

[captain stone]

That was a huge 40 for him. I think our CB's situation is a lot better than people think. With J.Jones and Gilmore, get another guy like Carlton Davis, Alexander..

There is no chance whatsoever that Davis will still be available at 31, maybe not even Alexander.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

There is no chance whatsoever that Davis will still be available at 31, maybe not even Alexander.

You may very well be right. I'm not sure, personally; I keep going back and forth. Fitzpatrick might be considered a CB. Ward, Hughes, Jackson, and Alexander tend to be most people's top 4, in some order or variation. Oliver might have made it into the mix if he had been sub-4.5, but he just missed that mark, surprisingly.

Look over the last several drafts: five CBs are taken in the first each year. Usually the last one is somewhere in that 29 - 32 range. Depending on what teams want at the position, it's almost certain that one of Alexander, Hughes, or Davis will be available. Which one that is, I can't tell at this point, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility that Davis is drafted in that range.

NFL.com Draft 2018 - NFL Draft History: Full Draft Year

 

[Tony2046]

Vea a few pounds shy of 350. Huge dude. Settle is also enormous, although he has the smallest hands of the DTs so far. It's not really that important, but it does make me chuckle to think of this enormous man with (relatively) tiny hands. Still a great prospect. He's a couple years younger than Vea, too, so he might have more upside if we have to Settle for my number two ranked DT.

Settle had a bad day at the combine which could be good news if we're hoping he stays out of the 1st round. I was slightly disappointed that he didn't participate in the bench press. His explosive numbers looked average and don't really care about speed and agility for the big guys.

I've read a lot of good stuff about him and most had him rated as a day 2 prospect. I watched highlight films but am beginning to think they're close to useless as watching complete games seems like the only way to get a good picture.

He's still young as you've mentioned and only has one real season at the college level so maybe there's plenty of upside. Not sure if I'd waste a 2nd round pick on a guy that may be a two year project.

Just my rookie thoughts.

 

[Peachhead]

It's a good year to need a CB, and we need a CB.

 

[maineman209]

Yeah, I just wanted to highlight his movement ability. He's really good in space. Warner is another guy who looks like a corner at times. Turay is also super smooth in coverage. Too bad he tweaked his hammy. That's always been the knock on him, though. Nicked up a lot.

I started a Gif thread recently. I'll try to populate it with clips more frequently, for people who don't have as much time to kill (although my boss probably wishes I did less on the draft and more on my job when I'm in the office).

Do you have a scouting report on Fred Warner?

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Settle had a bad day at the combine which could be good news if we're hoping he stays out of the 1st round. I was slightly disappointed that he didn't participate in the bench press. His explosive numbers looked average and don't really care about speed and agility for the big guys.

I've read a lot of good stuff about him and most had him rated as a day 2 prospect. I watched highlight films but am beginning to think they're close to useless as watching complete games seems like the only way to get a good picture.

He's still young as you've mentioned and only has one real season at the college level so maybe there's plenty of upside. Not sure if I'd waste a 2nd round pick on a guy that may be a two year project.

Just my rookie thoughts.

On film he looks really intriguing. Raw, bad balance, ends up on the ground too much -- yet when his technique is right, he's just an absolute bull. I really like him, more than I should for all of his negatives. A word of warning: he tested worse than Brace in every category.

 

[TriplecHamp]

Derwin solidifies himself as a top 10 pick

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Do you have a scouting report on Fred Warner?

I can summarize -- I've watched a ton of his games. I'll try to post some clips of him soon in my gif thread, too. I'll start with positives, because there's a lot to like, but I barely can get on board with drafting him. His potential is off the charts. In fact, I would liken him to Jamie Collins with less physicality. It's all about development with Warner.

Pluses: he has corner-like movement skills in coverage, and possibly the most experience dropping of all the off the ball linebackers I've watched. Ball skills and fluidity are the name of his game. He would be a cure for what ails us on the backend. Very gifted athletically.

Minuses: Can't get off blocks. Allergic to contact. Maybe he'll develop in time, but he makes more business decisions than I've ever seen from a linebacker. Can't stand watching his tape, because I get all excited against the pass but then I'm ready to turn off the tape in the run game. There's just something so frustrating about his approach to the game -- seems to lack some sort of requisite fire for the position.

NFL Draft & Combine Profile - FRED WARNER | NFL.com

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I've heard really good things about Cruikshank. I need to watch more of his tape, because he's more of a corner than a safety despite testing with this group.

Overall, these safety times are unreal. Impressive stuff. I like Reid a lot, by the way.