The Defensive Front 7 - Lots of Work, Lots Of Options

[maineman209]

Any linebacker corp where Roberts has the 2nd most reps (by far) needs major help.

Major help? Yes! But what kind of help?

A couple more healthy bodies would have helped in 2017. And perhaps more experience.

I know I keep harping on this theme, but folks keep going on and on about "moar young talent! moar speed! moar athleticism!!" I'm not sure they've quite yet understood the extent of the experience deficit, so I keep trying to find ways to illustrate the point more clearly.
-----

Entering the 2017 regular season, Hightower had averaged about 710 regular season snaps for the previous five years (he contributed only 237 in 2017). At the start of the 2017 season ...

- Van Noy had played a total of 655 NFL snaps on defense (249 of those with the Pats) in his 3-year NFL career.
- Roberts had played a total of 271 NFL snaps on defense in his one rookie season.
- Marquis Flowers had played a total of 72 defensive snaps.
- Eric Lee had played zero regular season NFL snaps of any kind.

That's 998 total snaps of regular season experience playing LB in the NFL.

Yep, Ladies and Gentlemen, the grand total NFL defensive experience of the players who accounted for the vast majority of 2017 Patriots LB snaps was about the equivalent of what Hightower alone played in just the 2014 season, including the playoffs.

So, then in the 2017 regular season ...

Van Noy played 710 snaps ... he's now up to 1,365 snaps, 959 with the Pats.
Roberts played 558 snaps ... he's now up to 829 snaps, all with the Pats (nearly as many as Van Noy, now)
Flowers played 283 snaps ... he's now up to 355 snaps.
Lee played 281 snaps (about half of those at OLB) ... the only NFL snaps of his career.

That's 1832 more NFL defensive snaps than this group had at the start of the season, nearly tripling the group's combined experience level.

Also contributing in 2017, btw:
Harris played 181 snaps.
Reilly played 57.
Harrison played 27 (much more in the post-season).
Freeny played 18. (Freeny! Seriously?)
Grigsby played 14 (the first defensive snaps of his career).
Langi played 6.

A total of 303 for this group (and only Grigsby and Langi are still under contract).

Ooh! I almost forgot Marsh (and who wouldn't want to?). He apparently kicked in a couple dozen snaps at OLB in week-3 (and never again, thankfully).

 

[mgteich]

I don't want to misrepresent your position. I will state mine briefly. Please state yours, as well as disagreements with mine. Thanks!

MY POSITION
1) The DL has a good mix, although upgrades are always welcome.
2) At MLB, we have a good mix, although an upgrade to Roberts is possible.
3) At OLB, presuming that McClellan retires, we are in very deep doo doo. We could help solve this by re-signing Harrison and Flowers.

Major help? Yes! But what kind of help?

A couple more healthy bodies would have helped in 2017. And perhaps more experience.

I know I keep harping on this theme, but folks keep going on and on about "moar young talent! moar speed! moar athleticism!!" I'm not sure they've quite yet understood the extent of the experience deficit, so I keep trying to find ways to illustrate the point more clearly.
-----

Entering the 2017 regular season, Hightower had averaged about 710 regular season snaps for the previous five years (he contributed only 237 in 2017). At the start of the 2017 season ...

- Van Noy had played a total of 655 NFL snaps on defense (249 of those with the Pats) in his 3-year NFL career.
- Roberts had played a total of 271 NFL snaps on defense in his one rookie season.
- Marquis Flowers had played a total of 72 defensive snaps.
- Eric Lee had played zero regular season NFL snaps of any kind.

That's 998 total snaps of regular season experience playing LB in the NFL.

Yep, Ladies and Gentlemen, the grand total NFL defensive experience of the players who accounted for the vast majority of 2017 Patriots LB snaps was about the equivalent of what Hightower alone played in just the 2014 season, including the playoffs.

So, then in the 2017 regular season ...

Van Noy played 710 snaps ... he's now up to 1,365 snaps, 959 with the Pats.
Roberts played 558 snaps ... he's now up to 829 snaps, all with the Pats (nearly as many as Van Noy, now)
Flowers played 283 snaps ... he's now up to 355 snaps.
Lee played 281 snaps (about half of those at OLB) ... the only NFL snaps of his career.

That's 1832 more NFL defensive snaps than this group had at the start of the season, nearly tripling the group's combined experience level.

Also contributing in 2017, btw:
Harris played 181 snaps.
Reilly played 57.
Harrison played 27 (much more in the post-season).
Freeny played 18. (Freeny! Seriously?)
Grigsby played 14 (the first defensive snaps of his career).
Langi played 6.

A total of 303 for this group (and only Grigsby and Langi are still under contract).

Ooh! I almost forgot Marsh (and who wouldn't want to?). He apparently kicked in a couple dozen snaps at OLB in week-3 (and never again, thankfully).

 

[maineman209]

I don't want to misrepresent your position. I will state mine briefly. Please state yours, as well as disagreements with mine. Thanks!

MY POSITION
1) The DL has a good mix, although upgrades are always welcome.
2) At MLB, we have a good mix, although an upgrade to Roberts is possible.
3) At OLB, presuming that McClellan retires, we are in very deep doo doo. We could help solve this by re-signing Harrison and Flowers.

I don't have any real disagreements, I don't think. I see some versatility in most of these guys:

On the DL:
- Brown .. mainly a 4-3 DT "under tackle" (and a good, young one)
- Valentine .. 4-3 DT/NT and enough of a 3-4 NT to facilitate reasonable 3-4 fronts
- Guy .. 3-4 DE/4-3 DT ("lite")
- Butler .. similar enough to Guy to make a reasonable 3-4 DE "bookend"
- Wise .. 4-3 DE (mainly)
- Flowers .. 4-3 DE
- Keionta Davis .. 4-3 DE (lonshot, but in the off-season mix)
- Caleb Kidder .. 4-3 DE (ditto)
- Eric Lee .. 4-3 DE/3-4 OLB (maybe, part time)

The interior DL might not need much more than a re-signing of RJF at veteran minimum (= under $1M, net), but more 4-3 DT/NT, 3-4 DE, and 4-3 DE prospects (1-2 of each) couldn't hurt.

At LB:
- Eric Lee OLB (maybe, part time)
- Rivers OLB (coming out of pre-draft weigh-ins at 248 lbs, he needs to put on another 10-15 lbs of muscle to be more DE than OLB)
- Hightower .. ILB/OLB/DE (hopefully not much of the latter)
- Van Noy .. ILB/OLB
- Roberts .. ILB (2-down rotational backup at this point, but could still develop into more)
- Langi .. ILB/OLB.../DE? (really difficult to guess at this point)

So, yes, re-signing Harrison and Marquis Flowers certainly helps populate the off-the-line edge a bit, and perhaps helps Hightower and Van Noy (and Roberts) focus more on ILB/MLB assignments.

Any addition at ILB or OLB (or both) could be helpful, especially at least one guy with some NFL experience (doesn't really need to be "high-end", just competent and not ancient, hopefully).

 

[captain stone]

Just completed his second NFL season and was not likely drafted to be a starter.

Then why was he (Roberts) drafted at all, if no starting potential was seen in him?

 

[maineman209]

Then why was he (Roberts) drafted at all, if no starting potential was seen in him?

Funny you should ask. Guys like Roberts are drafted to be role players.

Caserio just explained it all at MIT on Saturday (BSPN alert, but worth it this time):
http://www.espn.com/blog/new-englan...analytics-conference-james-white-a-role-model
Nick Caserio at MIT Sloan Analytics Conference: James White a 'role' model

 

[mgteich]

Then why was he (Roberts) drafted at all, if no starting potential was seen in him?

What a really strange, and un-patriot like idea.

Of course, all draftees are NOT drafted because they have starting potential. Some are drafted with the expectation that they will be role players. This is one of the major reasons for the success of the patriots. Belichick understands this, many others do not.

 

[Love The Drake]

Aaron Lynch?
He's predicted to be in line for a contract under 2 mill a season why not?

 

[RayClay]

Just completed his second NFL season and was not likely drafted to be a starter.

I admire guys with scrap who play over their heads at times. That doesn't mean we ignore their shortcomings. Patricia did a good job hiding the deficiencies, but they were exposed in the big game, as good opponents will do. They need some talent.

 

[Joker]

Amen, RC

 

[RayClay]

Just completed his second NFL season and was not likely drafted to be a starter.

Well, I've never been aware of a role for a 223 pound linebacker who can't cover. Pats LBs are usually 240 minimum, or they play special teams and come in for coverage if they're lighter. I actually admire Roberts because he hustled . The snaps he got shows Patricia papering over a disaster of a front 7.

 

[Sciz]

Aaron Lynch?
He's predicted to be in line for a contract under 2 mill a season why not?

Only 379 snaps and 2.5 sacks the last two seasons. A substance abuse suspension. Showing up to offseason workouts at over 300 pounds, 30 overweight. A 2016 high ankle sprain. A 2017 calf sprain. Some healthy scratches.

The “why not” list has always been significant. The “why” list was simply that he had 12.5 sacks in two seasons, but he doesn’t seem to be that same kind of player anymore.

 

[supafly]

I admire guys with scrap who play over their heads at times. That doesn't mean we ignore their shortcomings. Patricia did a good job hiding the deficiencies, but they were exposed in the big game, as good opponents will do. They need some talent.

I think they were exposed more than just in the big game. The run defense was the worst it’s ever been in the Belichick era, giving up 4.71 yards per carry. That’s insane.

The injuries were obviously devastating, but I also think it goes a bit deeper than that. Like you said in your last sentence, they need some talent, and I think things will improve through the return of some players alone, but I also think they need to hit on a couple good picks or acquisitions. One thing is for sure, Belichick worked some magic last season by finishing 5th overall in points allowed, because that defense most certainly was weak and exploited in certain areas.

 

[maineman209]

I admire guys with scrap who play over their heads at times. That doesn't mean we ignore their shortcomings. Patricia did a good job hiding the deficiencies, but they were exposed in the big game, as good opponents will do. They need some talent.

Perhaps I'm misreading, but you appear to be assuming that young players like Roberts have no potential to improve - that the deficiencies in his play this past year are inherent and permanent (due to "lack of talent") and that he has no means for fixing them or for developing positives that will offset any remaining deficiencies enough to make him a valuable role player for the Pats in his upcoming 3rd season.

 

[maineman209]

Well, I've never been aware of a role for a 223 pound linebacker who can't cover. Pats LBs are usually 240 minimum, or they play special teams and come in for coverage if they're lighter. I actually admire Roberts because he hustled . The snaps he got shows Patricia papering over a disaster of a front 7.

Well, Robert was 233 during pre-draft weigh-ins ... two years ago. While his 5110 height is unlikely to have changed, it seems to me that two years of access to NFL trainers and facilities may have beefed him up at least a bit, regardless what the patriots.com roster says.

Anyway, who knows what role BB and the Pats defensive coaches had in mind for him when they drafted him?

 

[maineman209]

Only 379 snaps and 2.5 sacks the last two seasons. A substance abuse suspension. Showing up to offseason workouts at over 300 pounds, 30 overweight. A 2016 high ankle sprain. A 2017 calf sprain. Some healthy scratches.

The “why not” list has always been significant. The “why” list was simply that he had 12.5 sacks in two seasons, but he doesn’t seem to be that same kind of player anymore.

Certainly more red flags than green ones. And, he hasn't played very much on ST.

OTOH, Lynch (who was also a bit of a "problem child" coming out of college inthe first place) played each of his first four seasons in the NFL as under a different DC ...
- Fangio (2014)
- Mangini (2015)
- Jim O'Neil (2016)
.. all of whom were running their own version of the 3-4, and using Lynch at OLB.

Then, last season, Robert Saleh cam in as DC, switched to a 4-3 and tried to use Lynch as a part-time DE.

Probably not the best development environment for a young player, especially for a prospect for whom consistency might have been of great benefit.

Lynch's injury history seems neither great nor awful - a few games missed here and there to various ankle/calf issues (and one concussion), but he's probably missed more games over the past two seasons as a healthy scratch.

Anyway, if the Pats understand the "red flags" and can sign him to the off-season roster for his level veteran minimum ($790k), he might be worth a look.

I mean, I'd even take an off-season look at Su'a Cravens for minimum salary (assuming the Skins cut him).

 

[mgteich]

Well, I've never been aware of a role for a 223 pound linebacker who can't cover. Pats LBs are usually 240 minimum, or they play special teams and come in for coverage if they're lighter. I actually admire Roberts because he hustled . The snaps he got shows Patricia papering over a disaster of a front 7.

IMHO, the patriots have a name for a 223 linebacker, "free safety". I don't think that the patriots like to have 223 pound linebackers.

 

[Chris Stevenson]

I think they were exposed more than just in the big game. The run defense was the worst it’s ever been in the Belichick era, giving up 4.71 yards per carry. That’s insane.

The injuries were obviously devastating, but I also think it goes a bit deeper than that. Like you said in your last sentence, they need some talent, and I think things will improve through the return of some players alone, but I also think they need to hit on a couple good picks or acquisitions. One thing is for sure, Belichick worked some magic last season by finishing 5th overall in points allowed, because that defense most certainly was weak and exploited in certain areas.

It's because they are playing a lot more dime. When you use Chung as the nickel on almost every down, and then add in a Butler or whoever in a dime, of course the run game has an advantage.

The run D was fine except for the losses of Hightower and Branch. It's not a defensive front talent issues. It's a health/scheme issue. I don't think people appreciate Hightower's value and how banged up the D was overall, especially up front. Add in the rookie wall for Wise and Butler, and there you go. But, this all bodes very well for 2018.

Branch would command doubles. Flowers is the one who ended up being doubled a lot this year. There's your problem.

Basically, BB is employing his HOF SB 25 gameplan, generally speaking, week to week.

If an RB gets 100 yards per game, he doesn't care as much because he knows all the money is made in the red zone.

If our D was a bit healthier this year, we win the SB. If Hightower never got hurt? I think we win that SB. I realized injuries are part of it, but I am just saying.

This has happened before in 2013 and 2015, when people freak out and act like it's a "talent" issue. Then, I point out it's not, and then we have a healthy even season (2014, 2016), and we win a Super Bowl.

Lure Muhammad Wilkerson here on the cheap, and look for a DT in the draft, but overall the Wise and Butler rookie years, were very impressive.

NE's D at one point played 8 straight games without Hightower allowing 11.87 points per game (that's amazing consistency in this era), before more injuries took hold.

 

[mgteich]

We've always had two nickel sets of formations, one with safety as nickel, and one with a corner. Depending on personnel, the dime (and opponent) could be a corner or a safety. Chung was used as a nickel so much because he is so good, and we want to have our 5 best DB's on the field.

If Chung (or one of the other safeties) is injured, we still should out or best DB's on the field.

PROBLEM
Who are the #5 and #6 best DB's and #7 if there is an injury. We do need 7 defensive backs who we can depend on (8 if we accommodate injuries during the season).

IMHO, this can include 5 corners and 3 safeties, or it can include 4 safeties and 4 corners.

Gilmore, Rowe, J Jones, Bademosi, McCourty, Chung, Harmon.

We need to re-sign Bademosi and have an 8th DB that we can count on. A 4th safety would be ideal, plus a CB for the future. Affordable #4 safeties that we can count on are pretty rare.

My guess is that Belichick will bring in a CB or two to compete, perhaps even a starter if he can find one.

It's because they are playing a lot more dime. When you use Chung as the nickel on almost every down, and then add in a Butler or whoever in a dime, of course the run game has an advantage.

The run D was fine except for the losses of Hightower and Branch. It's not a defensive front talent issues. It's a health/scheme issue. I don't think people appreciate Hightower's value and how banged up the D was overall, especially up front. Add in the rookie wall for Wise and Butler, and there you go. But, this all bodes very well for 2018.

Branch would command doubles. Flowers is the one who ended up being doubled a lot this year. There's your problem.

Basically, BB is employing his HOF SB 25 gameplan, generally speaking, week to week.

If an RB gets 100 yards per game, he doesn't care as much because he knows all the money is made in the red zone.

If our D was a bit healthier this year, we win the SB. If Hightower never got hurt? I think we win that SB. I realized injuries are part of it, but I am just saying.

This has happened before in 2013 and 2015, when people freak out and act like it's a "talent" issue. Then, I point out it's not, and then we have a healthy even season (2014, 2016), and we win a Super Bowl.

Lure Muhammad Wilkerson here on the cheap, and look for a DT in the draft, but overall the Wise and Butler rookie years, were very impressive.

NE's D at one point played 8 straight games without Hightower allowing 11.87 points per game (that's amazing consistency in this era), before more injuries took hold.

 

[Chris Stevenson]

We've always had two nickel sets of formations, one with safety as nickel, and one with a corner. Depending on personnel, the dime (and opponent) could be a corner or a safety. Chung was used as a nickel so much because he is so good, and we want to have our 5 best DB's on the field.

If Chung (or one of the other safeties) is injured, we still should out or best DB's on the field.

PROBLEM
Who are the #5 and #6 best DB's and #7 if there is an injury. We do need 7 defensive backs who we can depend on (8 if we accommodate injuries during the season).

IMHO, this can include 5 corners and 3 safeties, or it can include 4 safeties and 4 corners.

Gilmore, Rowe, J Jones, Bademosi, McCourty, Chung, Harmon.

We need to re-sign Bademosi and have an 8th DB that we can count on. A 4th safety would be ideal, plus a CB for the future. Affordable #4 safeties that we can count on are pretty rare.

My guess is that Belichick will bring in a CB or two to compete, perhaps even a starter if he can find one.

Agreed. I think Bademosi can be a good spot/role player here or maybe even be moved to Safety as a way to groom a Chung replacement.

 

[maineman209]

We've always had two nickel sets of formations, one with safety as nickel, and one with a corner. Depending on personnel, the dime (and opponent) could be a corner or a safety. Chung was used as a nickel so much because he is so good, and we want to have our 5 best DB's on the field.

If Chung (or one of the other safeties) is injured, we still should out or best DB's on the field.

PROBLEM
Who are the #5 and #6 best DB's and #7 if there is an injury. We do need 7 defensive backs who we can depend on (8 if we accommodate injuries during the season).

IMHO, this can include 5 corners and 3 safeties, or it can include 4 safeties and 4 corners.

Gilmore, Rowe, J Jones, Bademosi, McCourty, Chung, Harmon.

We need to re-sign Bademosi and have an 8th DB that we can count on. A 4th safety would be ideal, plus a CB for the future. Affordable #4 safeties that we can count on are pretty rare.

My guess is that Belichick will bring in a CB or two to compete, perhaps even a starter if he can find one.

Kind of a sidebar to this ...

I was thinking about the dramatic decline in the Pats run defense from 2016 to 2017 in terms of the obvious personnel changes ... losing three veteran DEs who were very good run defenders, losing VV, HT and McClellin to injury, and losing Branch to old age/lack of athletic conditioning.

It occurred to me that losing Logan Ryan also had perhaps more of an impact on run defense than I'd thought about before. He was the team's 3rd-leading tackler in 2015 and it's leading tackler in 2016. He was consistently good and quick at discerning run from pass, pre-snap (not easily faked out) and was extremely quick to the edge to keep contain.

So, not only was the secondary missing a pretty good coverage player, it was also missing one of its top-two run defenders. That might be part of the reason McCourty moved up closer to the box this past season.

There's also the aspect that, when players in the secondary aren't completely confident in the ability of the front-7 (especially the DL) to stop the run, it can cause split-second delays in their reaction times (with obvious consequences to coverage effectiveness). So, now, this has me wondering if Ryan's absence caused Butler to change his reads and timing.

Just musing here. Not trying to build a case for anything.