Belichick: Bad judgement on 4th downs?

[Huckleberry1]

Let's settle down. There have been plenty of people on here, including many who normally support Belichick, who disagree with some of the decisions that came up down the stretch, myself included. There's going to be a diverse group of opinions on here and let's try and remember that if it wasn't for that, there wouldn't be much to debate if everyone shared the same outlook. While I don't agree with some of those opinions, they're allowed to have them and we can have spirited debates without escalating it to this level. So let's try and tone it down a bit.

Fair enough Ian, my apology.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I’m going to hold off judgement on the Butler situation in the most recent SB, simply because it’s so bizarre I feel that something important had to happen to force his hand. The choice to pass on the FG attempt in SB42 was certainly a head scratcher.

An interesting POV. Remember that Butler said that the coaches "lost faith" in him, which doesn't seem quite the same thing. I wonder if we'll ever find out which one is right: did Belichick decide that he couldn't put Butler in, or that he shouldn't put Butler in?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

McDaniels is overrated and gets caught over-analyzing.

Been going on for years and years...

Everyone hates their team's offensive coordinator.

 

[lancerman]

Again, I replied to Ivan's post and already addressed it. This works both ways, so I need you to exercise the same restraint I've asked of him. So let's move on.

My bad. Went straight to the notification when I posted that reply. Sorry.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Sorry @Ian

 

[convertedpatsfan]

-Trailing 7 to 3 in the last minute of the first half in the 2010 playoff game against the Jets. Belichick tried a fake punt on 4th and 4. Chung bobbled the snap and got stopped. Jets scored a TD on a short field. Ultimately the Jets won by 7.

I get that people are obsessed with outcomes, but there's no outcome that's guaranteed in football. This isn't Madden on rookie mode; you can't run a play and guarantee it works every single time.

So sometimes you make the right decision and it doesn't work. Sometimes you make the wrong decision and it does. If you judge only on the outcome, you miss a lot of the decision-making process.

Good decisions don't guarantee good outcomes. If you go for it on 4th down, you can't possibly get it every single time. Even if the odds are in your favour, the odds are never 100%.

You're not even looking at the outcome so much as the outcome with hindsight, which is one of the worst ways to evaluate decisions.

And in doing so, you're also totally ignoring other key factors. Like in the example above, Belichick didn't try a fake punt. That was an audible called by Chung.

Now Belichick had given that role the authority to make that call, so I'm not saying he's 100% not involved at all. But it was Chung who made the call to get the snap.

So it's hard to take these types of posts that seriously. If any of those calls had been successful, the OP would be raving about what a great call it was.

But I'm sure you know better because your Madden rookie team is undefeated with all the starters in the Pro Bowl because of the 4 broken plays you've figured out that let you pick up a 1st down even if it's 4th and 12. Real life doesn't work that way though.

 

[brdmaverick]

Throw away the two in the 2015 AFCG. When analyzing 4th down decisions people forget to analyze what happened AFTER the failed fourth down.

When the Pats finally did score their TD, it was because they had good field position......something they had b/c the Broncos were backed up after the Pats failed fourth down conversions.

Let's look back at the situation that BB was faced with during the first 4th down decision in the first quarter.........

1.) Pats face 4th down down by 8 in fourth quarter

2.) Facing tough defense in which offense was EXTREMELY hard to manufacture. There is a real chance you are thinking this may be your last best chance to tie the game up.

Plus, I think the Broncos offense went into shutdown, kill clock mode after our failed fourth downs b/c they knew they were still up by 8. It's almost like our 3 drives were one long one, b/c they were all related. One set up the other.

Like take the Colts-Saints Super Bowl. I would STRONGLY ARGUE that the Saints failed fourth down conversion at the goalline just before halftime cost them NOTHING. Sure, they failed, but the Colts (on the shadow of their goalline) played it safe and tried to kill some clock before the half. They punt, the Saints get good field position, and get their field goal. The Colts don't go into 'safe mode' without the failed 4th down, and the Saints don't get a short field without the failed fourth down. So I see those two drives as a continuation of each other as well.

 

[captain stone]

I smell what you're cooking here, and can understand why Bill decided to attempt 4th-down conversions each time: First attempt, 6:03 remaining, a long one yard to go at the donkeys 16. Too long for a Brady sneak, but terrible design & execution. Probably still should've kicked a FG there, however.
Second attempt, 2:25 remaining, 6 yards to go at the donkeys 14 (Should've been 1 yard to go at the 9). Terrible blocking, again, and Gronk might've been held in the end zone, but nobody's crew was going to throw a flag there. Pats still had all 3 time outs (plus the 2-minute warning), so again I would've kicked a FG there and hoped that the defense could again get another 3-and-out.
Neither attempt was nearly as egregious as 4th/5 at Philly's 35 in the SB, but I still would've kicked FGs there each time.

BTW, a hidden Killer in that game was the gift FG given the donkeys at the end of the 1st half, which never would've happened had the offense managed just one 1st down, thanks for nothing Josh Kline and your False Start penalty, and to Ryan Allen and your 39-yard punt to set up the donkeys at their 44 to start the drive.
(p.s.: the last paragraph was recently edited, with apologies to Bryan Stork.)

 

[brdmaverick]

BTW, a hidden Killer in that game was the gift FG given the donkeys at the end of the 1st half, which never would've happened had the offense managed just one 1st down, thanks for nothing Bryan They Should've Drafted Russell Jethroe Bodine Instead Of You Stork.

I hear ya, but wasn't Stork the same guy who was basically hero in 2014 for stabilizing an OLine that was extremely shaky in the first month of the season?

 

[luuked]

I hear ya, but wasn't Stork the same guy who was basically hero in 2014 for stabilizing an OLine that was extremely shaky in the first month of the season?

Lombardi has gone on the record saying it was not Stork who was to blame for the OL issues in the Denver game. He explained the entire cluster**** on GM Street before this years Superbowl. He said that Stork was playing through an injury, never was able to consistently hear the snap count because of how loud it was and what ended up happening was the snap essentially always happening at 1.

Key Super Bowl Advantages, the Kirk Cousins Sweepstakes, Prop Bets, and the Future of Football | GM Street (Ep. 233) — The Ringer NFL Show — Overcast

But of course the armchair coaches and posters here know it better and keep harping on that ******** about head bobs.

 

[stinkypete]

The average 4th down conversion rate is right around 50%. The only teams to reach even a 60% success rate in 2017 were New Orleans, Jacksonville, Philly, Baltimore, and...the Patriots.

Failed execution is always magnified in clutch situations.

 

[captain stone]

Lombardi has gone on the record saying it was not Stork who was to blame for the OL issues in the Denver game. He explained the entire cluster**** on GM Street before this years Superbowl. He said that Stork was playing through an injury, never was able to consistently hear the snap count because of how loud it was and what ended up happening was the snap essentially always happening at 1.

Key Super Bowl Advantages, the Kirk Cousins Sweepstakes, Prop Bets, and the Future of Football | GM Street (Ep. 233) — The Ringer NFL Show — Overcast

But of course the armchair coaches and posters here know it better and keep harping on that ******** about head bobs.

I was referring to Stork's false start penalty on the very first play from scrimmage during their penultimate drive of the first half, the result of which created 2nd/13 from inside their own 10...but upon further review, I now realize that the penalty was committed by - and should've been called on - Josh Kline. Still hard to tell if Hochuli called number 66 or 67.

 

[luuked]

I was referring to Stork's false start penalty on the very first play from scrimmage during their penultimate drive of the first half, the result of which created 2nd/13 from inside their own 10...but upon further review, I now realize that the penalty was committed by - and should've been called on - Josh Kline. Still hard to tell if Hochuli called number 66 or 67.

I wasnt referring to you captain. Mostly to those people that still bring it up now and again that Stork was the one who gave snap counts away and was the main reason for the OL issues in the AFCCG.

 

[sb1]

People talk all the time about the "odds" a team will get a 4th and short. I never really bought into that stuff. Way too many variables and factors go into any football matchup that you can't isolate it like you can with baseball.

 

[jam757]

Bill is the greatest coach/GM of all time and it's not even close really. That said, he is human, and he does make mistakes. Unfortunately this years Super Bowl was not his finest hour. The Butler decision will never go away. The in game decisions on 4th down he will have to live with. I disagree with going for it on 4th and 5 as they have one of "the best" kickers in the game. The not going for it on 4th and 1 is conservative to me but really that could go either way. It just seemed at the time that a 7-3 lead would have seized back some momentum. Once Philly took the lead 9-3 the Pats were on the ropes for the remainder of the game. Bill coached poor Super Bowls in #42 and #52. He has to live with that. They gave this friggen game away.

 

[Mr.Bandwagon]

I hated Bill for benching Butler he made that call I support it and I'm over it.He's still the best coach out there..Lets get em next season!!

 

[Brewskies]

OH well, I guess I will stop watching and being a Pats fan after 57 years because BB makes bad calls sometimes during his tenure as HC.

I like football so I wonder what team I should change to?

 

[maust]

OH well, I guess I will stop watching and being a Pats fan after 57 years because BB makes bad calls sometimes during his tenure as HC.

I like football so I wonder what team I should change to?

Well you like football so that automatically rules out the Jete, dollfins, Brownies, Bungles, dolts, raiders, Skins, Giants, cowgirls, Bears, Carolina kittys, Bucs and shehawks. Moving on to the premise that it's professional football you like that would eliminate the Titans, Ravens, Broncos, Vikings, Lions, Falcons, Cards and Niners. Since most professional football requires a team that has a legit QB that would seem to preclude the Billdos, & Jags. Still plenty to choose from though. But since you are looking for a professional football team with a coach that doesn't make bad calls that definitely rules out the Stealers, Texans, Chefs, Chargers, Eagles Packers, Saints & Rams. So after that comprehensive look at all the available professional football teams you might change to it look like our process has led us to Alabama.

Congrats and Roll Tide!

 

[tasmlab]

I thought missing the Point After kick in the 2015 AFCCG was a terrible coaching decision. That's how this works, right?

 

[stinkypete]

People talk all the time about the "odds" a team will get a 4th and short. I never really bought into that stuff. Way too many variables and factors go into any football matchup that you can't isolate it like you can with baseball.

2017 NFL Team Downs Stats - National Football League - ESPN

Sorry to post from ESPN. It was the first result my google search gave me.

When it comes to 4th down attempts, the odds do tell us some things. If you go year by year, sorting the 4th down success percentages from greatest to least, you see that, every single year, about 20 teams convert between 40% and 60% of 4th downs.

Of course there are outliers. The Saints have been up around 80% the past 2 years. The Lions dropped from top 3 to bottom 3 in one year. Regression to the mean happens just as it does with fumbles, close games, etc.

Still, look at the numbers over a long stretch. The Patriots are a pretty sure bet to convert 60% of the time, which is not dominant, but clearly above league average.