"Expert" predictions thread

[RIpats88]

Foles had the game of his life against the Vikings, my bet is he turns into the real Nick foles Sunday. People aren't respecting the Pats D and the eagles are weak on D in the middle of ther field and against tight ends. Seems like a fairly easy Pats win to me.

It seems to me people are looking at the AFCCG and NFCCG and extrapolating that as to the superbowl.

We were told leading up to the AFCCG to throw out the jaguars defensive performance against the steelers because it was an "outlier" but we are told to accept the eagles performance against the Vikings as "the accepted"

if people want to tell me Foles vs. atlanta is what to expect I can accept it because that was middle of the pack. He was an efficient game manager, but he stumbled in the red-zone and couldn't get his team more than 15 points.

I do think our defense is being underlooked here. While our linebackers are fairly average and can be exploited, our secondary is our strong point. You also have to look at different matchups across the board.

Pats played more zone vs. the jaguars to eliminate bortles burning them with his legs. They held their hat on letting bortles try and beat them with his arm. He succeeded for the first half until adjustments were made to send 5 at him.

Foles isnt the running threat that Bortles is. Its also something to note that he has the worst QB rating in the league under pressure. without that threat, I would expect the patriots to bring the heat on him early and play more man coverage. Forcing him to make quick decisions and make accurate throws into tight coverage. Look what the patriots did to marcus mariota once he was no longer a running threat? Also I would expect the pats to switch up who is dropping into coverage/who is rushing/disguised fronts to try and force bortles to make the wrong decision on those RPO's

A big matchup to the game is Pat chung on ertz. and I think Chung could be a sneaky defensive MVP here provided he performs to his season level



those are some impressive numbers.

 

[upstater1]

Well it doesn’t add up in addition to being meaningless

How is it meaningless if a defense is measured by points against? If you give a team more chances to score, they will score more.

 

[upstater1]

How does number of possessions say anything more relevant than number of plays in the context of what each defense was facing ?

The defense saved the game against the Jaguars by giving the inconsistent, sometimes inept offense enough possessions and field position to score.

There are any number of variables and various ways to answer this question, but if you're a running team and short passing team, you're going to have more plays. But how many possessions are you going to have?

Put it this way, Jax gave up 2 fewer points per game than the Patriots. But they faced 25% (4 games worth) more possessions than the Patriots.

This shows the degree to which one team was aided by their offense in comparison to the other.

 

[Pats1989]

Why was Blount allowed to walk? the guy was a good player for the Patriots. He's also never lost a SB game in his career.

Notes: Patriots are 2-3 In NFC SB venues. Wins against the Rams & Seahawks. Their losses came to the Bears, Packers, and Giants. On the other hand, they're 3-1 in AFC SB venues. Their wins are against the kitties, eagles, and falcons. One loss against the Giants.

Other tidbits: Al Michaels hasn't called a SB where the colored jersey team has won since the Bucs over Raiders. Furthermore, the last time Michaels called a SB where the NFC colored jersey team won a SB in a NFC venue was the Giants over the Bills....nearly 28 years ago.

 

[Ring 6]

There are any number of variables and various ways to answer this question, but if you're a running team and short passing team, you're going to have more plays. But how many possessions are you going to have?

Put it this way, Jax gave up 2 fewer points per game than the Patriots. But they faced 25% (4 games worth) more possessions than the Patriots.

This shows the degree to which one team was aided by their offense in comparison to the other.

I’m confused about a few things.
1) is the patriot defense going to be playing with the jaguar offense?
2) what does the jaguar defense gave to do with anything
3) you seem to be implying that the way the patriots play defense which resulted in an average drive of 2:44 should be applied to the way Jacksonville played defense with an average drive of 2:14. The patriots defense is on the field (134 seconds:164 seconds) 22% more time yet you seem to expect them to face as many drives?? (Defensive drives patriots 168 jags 199 this is 18% more drives not 25 btw)
So in an average game the patriots defense face 10.5 drives and 64 plays and are in the field for 28:42 while the jags face 12.5 drives 62 plays and are on the field 27.55.
Why do you feel this is significant? On an average drive the patriots allow one more play and 30 seconds time of possession. This means the 10.5 drives they are on the field for take MORE game time than the jags 12.5.
Your “fear stat” wants the patriots to play 5 quarters games.

The patriots are #6 in the next in yards per drive.

By the way when you look at real causation you will probably find that the difference is that in order to score on the patriots (after week 4) you myst embark on long, time consuming drives rather than get a quick score. Your “analysis” says if they play a completely different style of defense they will face more drives but then applies the results of the defense they do play to thise extra drives that they don’t face because of how they play.

I think we can agree now that this stat is meaningless, no?

 

[Ring 6]

How is it meaningless if a defense is measured by points against? If you give a team more chances to score, they will score more.

See my last post.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Why was Blount allowed to walk? the guy was a good player for the Patriots.

Pats wanted more run/pass versatility in the backfield and did not want to pay Blount $2.5m.

He's also never lost a SB game in his career.

Hes never played well in one either.

Notes: Patriots are 2-3 In NFC SB venues. Wins against the Rams & Seahawks. Their losses came to the Bears, Packers, and Giants. On the other hand, they're 3-1 in AFC SB venues. Their wins are against the kitties, eagles, and falcons. One loss against the Giants.

Other tidbits: Al Michaels hasn't called a SB where the colored jersey team has won since the Bucs over Raiders. Furthermore, the last time Michaels called a SB where the NFC colored jersey team won a SB in a NFC venue was the Giants over the Bills....nearly 28 years ago.

1980 USA Hockey Team also wore white. Michaels called that.

 

[RIpats88]

Except for the Colts game(where my grandma couldve ran over them), Blount has been a non-factor in the playoffs with the patriots.

great closer running back during the regular season. But a non-factor in the postseason.

2013 vs. Broncos 5 carries for 6 yards
2014 vs ravens 3 carries for 1 yard
2014 vs. seattle 14 rushes for 40 yards -meh
2016 vs houston 8 rushes for 31 yards
2016 vs pitt 16 rushes for 47 yards
2016 vs atlanta 11 rushes for 31 yards and a fumble

not exactly a murderers row of performances once you take out the colts games.

 

[upstater1]

I’m confused about a few things.
1) is the patriot defense going to be playing with the jaguar offense?
2) what does the jaguar defense gave to do with anything
3) you seem to be implying that the way the patriots play defense which resulted in an average drive of 2:44 should be applied to the way Jacksonville played defense with an average drive of 2:14. The patriots defense is on the field (134 seconds:164 seconds) 22% more time yet you seem to expect them to face as many drives?? (Defensive drives patriots 168 jags 199 this is 18% more drives not 25 btw)
So in an average game the patriots defense face 10.5 drives and 64 plays and are in the field for 28:42 while the jags face 12.5 drives 62 plays and are on the field 27.55.
Why do you feel this is significant? On an average drive the patriots allow one more play and 30 seconds time of possession. This means the 10.5 drives they are on the field for take MORE game time than the jags 12.5.
Your “fear stat” wants the patriots to play 5 quarters games.

The patriots are #6 in the next in yards per drive.

By the way when you look at real causation you will probably find that the difference is that in order to score on the patriots (after week 4) you myst embark on long, time consuming drives rather than get a quick score. Your “analysis” says if they play a completely different style of defense they will face more drives but then applies the results of the defense they do play to thise extra drives that they don’t face because of how they play.

I think we can agree now that this stat is meaningless, no?

I referenced the Barnwell article. He was using Jax as a benchmark. That's why I used Jax.

For the life of me, I can't understand how this is even an argument.

If offenses start with poorer field position than usual, and they have fewer possessions than normal, they are going to score less, and that is going to be indicated in the defense's points against.

 

[FreeCourtroomBrady]

I keep hearing people say that Brady looks more relaxed and confident than he ever has during SB week which makes me feel like they Patriots have a game plan they are confident is going to work.

 

[VectorPrime]

I keep hearing people say that Brady looks more relaxed and confident than he ever has during SB week which makes me feel like they Patriots have a game plan they are confident is going to work.

Eh we hear that every time except perhaps with 42 when it was the practice week from hell.

 

[obgod3]

I would expect in any SB for the predictions to be split among fans, experts...everyone

 

[FreeCourtroomBrady]

Eh we hear that every time except perhaps with 42 when it was the practice week from hell.

Well on that note it sounds like the Eagles aren’t having a good practice week.

 

[PhillySteaks]

"Experts"?LOL

The real experts are people betting ..putting their money where their big mouths are..

The rest are blowhards who like to listen to themselves

 

[RIpats88]

"Experts"?LOL

The real experts are people betting ..putting their money where their big mouths are..

The rest are blowhards who like to listen to themselves

gambling on who wins a football game doesn't make you an "expert"

granted neither does being a talking head..

 

[Ring 6]

I referenced the Barnwell article. He was using Jax as a benchmark. That's why I used Jax.

For the life of me, I can't understand how this is even an argument.

If offenses start with poorer field position than usual, and they have fewer possessions than normal, they are going to score less, and that is going to be indicated in the defense's points against.

It shouldn’t be an argument because as I showed it’s meaningless.
They gave fewer possessions BECAUSE OF the defense. The numbers clearly showed that. Clearly.

So your argument is that a defense that forces the opponent to take up more time so they have fewer possessions is worse than a defense that allows more possessions? That makes no sense at all.

 

[Ring 6]

gambling on who wins a football game doesn't make you an "expert"

granted neither does being a talking head..

Betting enough money to influence a spread definitely would indicate expertise.
Being part of a consensus indicates more expertise than being a guy in ESPN.

 

[Todd Bradley]

Some of the ESPN picks are borderline mental.

I get that Mike Golic is a former Eagle, so picking Philly is whatever, but 31-10?

So not only are the Eagles going to win, they’re going to anihialte Brady and Belichick, hold them to 10 points and Nick Foles is going to hang 31 on a D that’s right at your own team’s level?

My god, get this man some Lexapro.

 

[PatsWSB47]

Some of the ESPN picks are borderline mental.

I get that Mike Golic is a former Eagle, so picking Philly is whatever, but 31-10?

So not only are the Eagles going to win, they’re going to anihialte Brady and Belichick, hold them to 10 points and Nick Foles is going to hang 31 on a D that’s right at your own team’s level?

My god, get this man some Lexapro.

There's a guy on Fox Sports radio proclaiming the same thing. He's predicting a Patriots loss that finishes them forever.

 

[lancerman]

Why was Blount allowed to walk? the guy was a good player for the Patriots. He's also never lost a SB game in his career.

Notes: Patriots are 2-3 In NFC SB venues. Wins against the Rams & Seahawks. Their losses came to the Bears, Packers, and Giants. On the other hand, they're 3-1 in AFC SB venues. Their wins are against the kitties, eagles, and falcons. One loss against the Giants.

Other tidbits: Al Michaels hasn't called a SB where the colored jersey team has won since the Bucs over Raiders. Furthermore, the last time Michaels called a SB where the NFC colored jersey team won a SB in a NFC venue was the Giants over the Bills....nearly 28 years ago.

Same reason we let him walk last time. He's not worth the money he gets paid. He got overhyped because we used him a lot in red zone situations and he racked up 18TD's to lead the league in the stat. This year he has 2.

He also was very mediocre in the playoffs last year. In just the Super Bowl alone he rushed for 31 yards on 11 carries (he got 9 yards on one carry so on the other 10 he was averaging 2.2 yards) no TD's, and fumbled the ball away when we were having our only good drive of the first half. Only 40 yards in the Seattle Super Bowl and averaged 2.9 yards.