Pats favored in SB, but underdogs?

[Soliel]

We heard the same thing about Flacco, Eli, and even Jay Cutler in week 14 of this year. For some reason, people just tend to hone in on the QB and not the entire team which surrounds him.

Jeffrey, Torrey Smith, and Agulor are 3 very capable receivers, and that’s not even including TE Ertz who was their leading receiver. They have a one-two punch in the backfield with Ajayi and Blount, and a tough defense. Of course they can win, Vegas’ stupid meaningless pointspread be damned. We lost as huge favorites in 2007, in 2010, and again in the AFCCG in 2012. I’m guessing that we were close to double digit favorites down in Miami this year, too.

Yes they were favored by -11

 

[dannydyn]

Don't confuse money line (spread) with fandom sentiment. The former is derived from actual bets placed using money, while the latter is formed based on sentimental fandom around the league. On that same token, a person who absolutely hates the Pats and is rooting for them to lose, is more than likely betting that they will win and cover the spread.

 

[FreeCourtroomBrady]

Media is driving the Eagles train and people are getting way too caught up in it. Everyone wanting the Patriots to lose is causing people to believe things that aren’t true. It happens all the time.

I believe I heard Skip Bayless say Vegas knows New England better than any other NFL team when it comes to betting lines.

 

[PWRxWLF]

Hey guys

Sorry for the potentially misleading title, but although the early line has Pats at 5, I feel like an awful lot of people think Philly will win. They are a good team, you don’t get this far with mediocrity...but picking a Nick Foles team to beat the GOAT? Having a very hard time imagining it. The argument is that Philly’s defense is the big equalizer and that that cancels out Brady. Even a superhuman effort by the Giants front four in SB 42 likely would have been for naught if not for the helmet catch and subsequent winning drive from Eli.

It actually feels like we might be underdogs this time, a position the Pats are almost never in. Worked out pretty well the last time we were underdogs ie SB 36. What do you guys think?

Just one quick point that people seem to forget here. Foles doesn’t have to beat the Goat. He has to beat a Defense that is good but can also be lit up at the drop of a hat. Quick passes that expose our LB’s and DE’s in coverage cause problems for us. Don’t even get me started on slants, drags and misdirection plays. Foles is very capable of exposing that.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Gotta be a "Maybe No Gronk" spread. It opened at 6. Thought it would open at 7 1/2, but Gronk is probably worth a FG to the Vegas folks, so it looks like they split the difference. Taking the Eagles with the six points against the Pats without Gronk was not a dumb bet. Then I guess they had to move it to keep things from getting lopsided.

Anyway, I imagine that the smart money won't come in until a couple of days before the game and there will be a frenzy then, when the Gronk situation is resolved and we find out whether Nick Foles has a cut on his throwing hand .

 

[SammyBlueCat]

Our overall organization has a great track record. That does not state nor imply a win is a given.

 

[Soliel]

Don't confuse money line (spread) with fandom sentiment. The former is derived from actual bets placed using money, while the latter is formed based on sentimental fandom around the league. On that same token, a person who absolutely hates the Pats and is rooting for them to lose, is more than likely betting that they will win and cover the spread.

I’d take the pats and give up the five points, I think they’ll cover that. I realize most are betting based on emotion and nostalgia. It’s really hard to outguess the books

 

[Soliel]

Once we find out for sure about gronk it will either go to-7 or if he is ruled out ( Christ and the angels help us) -3 or even pick em maybe

 

[supafly]

Gotta be a "Maybe No Gronk" spread. It opened at 6. Thought it would open at 7 1/2, but Gronk is probably worth a FG to the Vegas folks, so it looks like they split the difference. Taking the Eagles with the six points against the Pats without Gronk was not a dumb bet. Then I guess they had to move it to keep things from getting lopsided.

Anyway, I imagine that the smart money won't come in until a couple of days before the game and there will be a frenzy then, when the Gronk situation is resolved and we find out whether Nick Foles has a cut on his throwing hand .

I read an article from a betting service/Vegas insider that claimed that Gronk was one of a select few non-QBs in the league who would carry a full one point swing in the line.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I will be surprised if the line doesn’t get bigger over the next two weeks. I think bettors will jump on the 5.5 line and that as well as Gonk getting cleared will move it to 7.

 

[Love The Drake]

I think this is the game we unleash Gilleslie and Kenny Britt!

 

[Soliel]

I read an article from a betting service/Vegas insider that claimed that Gronk was one of a select few non-QBs in the league who would carry a full one point swing in the line.

I saw that too. It’s actually true, the pats would probably be hindered more than one point but the crazy formula they use, it would come out to a whole point swing. For comparison, Edelman and Hightower both don’t equal a point in that formula. That’s wierd

 

[Ring 6]

I think this is the game we unleash Gilleslie and Kenny Britt!

And Ocho cinco is gonna do it this week!!!

 

[fightingirish595]

Vegas makes the line to split the money. They want 50/50 money.

This would be a pickem if wentz was playing.

The patriots should be favored but I still think it’s a bad line. I see a 3 or 4 point game either way

 

[sambam94]

Just one quick point that people seem to forget here. Foles doesn’t have to beat the Goat. He has to beat a Defense that is good but can also be lit up at the drop of a hat. Quick passes that expose our LB’s and DE’s in coverage cause problems for us. Don’t even get me started on slants, drags and misdirection plays. Foles is very capable of exposing that.

yup..so tiring hearing brady vs foles or brady vs bortles...qbs play against the opposing team's defense..period, end of discussion

 

[SlowGettingUp]

But ultimately it represents the consensus prediction of people betting money on the game, heavily weighted by large money gamblers who probably are better predictors than any one you see on tv

That's normally true, but the big guys in the Super Bowl tend to get swamped by the mass of smaller bettors. So I'd put less weight on the spread here than in regular season games.

The house is happy it's at 5 - they can move that line up and down some without worrying about getting "middled." They hate a line of 3 or 6 or 7 for that reason.
(Getting middled happens when the line moves and a punter can take both sides of the bet and end up with a very favorable position for most outcomes).

 

[Ring 6]

That's normally true, but the big guys in the Super Bowl tend to get swamped by the mass of smaller bettors. So I'd put less weight on the spread here than in regular season games.

The house is happy it's at 5 - they can move that line up and down some without worrying about getting "middled." They hate a line of 3 or 6 or 7 for that reason.
(Getting middled happens when the line moves and a punter can take both sides of the bet and end up with a very favorable position for most outcomes).

Not really because the little guys balanve each other out and won’t influence a line. The big guy influences the line.

 

[Ring 6]

yup..so tiring hearing brady vs foles or brady vs bortles...qbs play against the opposing team's defense..period, end of discussion

Sure but by far the most important player in the field is the qb, so a major advantage there is important.
Considering these defenses are pretty even, it’s not like comparing Tom Brady vs the 85 Bears to Nick Foles vs the 2015 saints.

 

[RIpats88]

Fun fact. Pats defense had 42 sacks this season...the eagles? 38

Both teams are top 5 in points

They are a good defense but im not seeing how they have such an advantage over our defense vs foles

 

[NYCPatsFan]

Fun fact. Pats defense had 42 sacks this season...the eagles? 38

Both teams are top 5 in points

They are a good defense but im not seeing how they have such an advantage over our defense vs foles

I think the way they thumped the Vikings (were't the Vikings D ranked # 1 in terms of points allowed?) and kept the Vikings O limited swayed a lot of people's opinion that the Eagles are awesome. And when you consider that we had to come back in the last few minutes to win, I don't fault for many to think that the Eagles will win.

I too was impressed with Foles' two long throws for TDs, but confident that he might not do that against our CBs.

In the end, I care zero about Vegas and the line.

Just want our fantastic team lift the the SB trophy again and continue to make mockery of the pundits and their predictions.

Go Pats!!