2017 . Trade Deadline . thread

[TheBostonStraggler]

I'm curious if there is any data behind this or if it is rhetoric and confirmation bias. Ben Watson and Flowers jump immediately to mind as guys who have merited their selection despite missing their entire rookie seasons to injury. Vereen doesn't quite fit the criteria, but he wasn't doing much more than the same meetings/treatment that guys on IR do.

Do injuries during a rookie season have a disproportionate effect on career trajectory? Or is it just a case where most rookies are going to flame out anyway and early career injuries make good scapegoats?

Good question but I'd bet this is a hard one to precisely quantify due to so many variables.
A big injury can be mentally debilitating so the rookie has this as well as the tough transition to the big leagues to deal with. My suspicion is a rookie with that built in inner strength to fight to learn-improve-play in the big leagues, loves playing the game with a strong will to win, AND is in the right program will find his way onto the field to one day be successful.
OTOH a rookie who was focused on a payday(which I never blame a player for looking forward to), has trouble with the mental aspect of the injury, isn't watching film etc while he rehabs, winning isn't priority 1-2-3, and is stuck (for example) on Cleveland? His possibility to succeed is probably much smaller to be a player one day.

I'll tell you this, if a rookie is hurt in camp, misses his whole first year, plies his craft (in any way he can) to the max during rehab/the year, comes back to Cleveland and still eventually earns a spot on the field? That player has 'BB type player' written all over him.

 

[primetime]

I'm curious if there is any data behind this or if it is rhetoric and confirmation bias. Ben Watson and Flowers jump immediately to mind as guys who have merited their selection despite missing their entire rookie seasons to injury. Vereen doesn't quite fit the criteria, but he wasn't doing much more than the same meetings/treatment that guys on IR do.

Do injuries during a rookie season have a disproportionate effect on career trajectory? Or is it just a case where most rookies are going to flame out anyway and early career injuries make good scapegoats?

Those are fair examples. I suppose it can happen, but you're right - is the hit or miss rate any different?

 

[Uptown]

If the the playoffs ended today, the pats would play Jacksonville and that filthy d line.

And we would still win.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Before losing HT for the season, an NT type would have been my choice. I think anything front 7 would fit the bill now. I'm happy if VV and McClellin comeback but depth at LB is non existent.

NT as in someone who would have made the 3-4 more viable/successful? Not a bad observation based on another poster (can't remember who it was) as well as a few of my own observations suggesting 34 as a base didn't look good. I think BB has always believed as a philosophy that 4 LBs on the field is optimal.

But at this point, with HT gone, I'm assuming the strength of the Patriots isn't trying to find as many packages as possible that have 4 LBs on the field. And since HT being gone is water under the dam, if Brown heals up I actually don't think we are in terrible shape with the 43 base we have (425 when feasible). While it would be nice to add at least a serviceable LB or even along the DL to the mix (a Tampa or Saints early-mid season trade miracle of previous seasons!) -- IMHO this D can be good enough especially if Brown. McClellin, Valentine, Rowe can make it back on the field. Maybe not a shutdown D but good enough from a complimentary team victory dynamic (2017's D will look like the 85 Bears compared to the 2011 D).

 

[Adam Seward]

NT as in someone who would have made the 3-4 more viable/successful? Not a bad observation based on another poster (can't remember who it was) as well as a few of my own observations suggesting 34 as a base didn't look good. I think BB has always believed as a philosophy that 4 LBs on the field is optimal.

But at this point, with HT gone, I'm assuming the strength of the Patriots isn't trying to find as many packages as possible that have 4 LBs on the field. And since HT being gone is water under the dam, if Brown heals up I actually don't think we are in terrible shape with the 43 base we have (425 when feasible). While it would be nice to add at least a serviceable LB or even along the DL to the mix (a Tampa or Saints early-mid season trade miracle of previous seasons!) -- IMHO this D can be good enough especially if Brown. McClellin, Valentine, Rowe can make it back on the field. Maybe not a shutdown D but good enough from a complimentary team victory dynamic (2017's D will look like the 85 Bears compared to the 2011 D).

I used NT when a two gap DT would have been more accurate. Branch and our run D worries me, especially without HT. High wasn't only the leader but a goddamn queen chess piece himself. He could position himself to allow others successful opportunities from anywhere in the box. VV hopefully integrates quickly but with Brown nicked up too, I think it would be a sound move to limit exposure vs a good run game. Our pass rush pieces are there and our secondary really should continue to improve steadily when Rowe and Gilmore are back to health and the beyond expectation contributions from Bademosi.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

I used NT when a two gap DT would have been more accurate. Branch and our run D worries me, especially without HT. High wasn't only the leader but a goddamn queen chess piece himself. He could position himself to allow others successful opportunities from anywhere in the box. VV hopefully integrates quickly but with Brown nicked up too, I think it would be a sound move to limit exposure vs a good run game. Our pass rush pieces are there and our secondary really should continue to improve steadily when Rowe and Gilmore are back to health and the beyond expectation contributions from Bademosi.

Ah, my bad for assuming.

You can count me in with Branch and the run D being worrying -- without Brown. Take it FWIW but my handful of observations in the first half of ATL was our 4 man DL were holding their point of attack well, even getting some push. It sure makes a LB's job easier when the scrum(for lack of a better word) isn't pushed into the LB's face a half second after the ball is snapped. So if our DL can keep that up at just some similar level, I suspect Van Noy, ER, Harris and the rest of the no name bunch can still make plays (suspect? hope? -- a fine line between the two words ).
We may be fortunate in that the Chargers, statistically speaking, do not have a powerful run game. As well, hopefully, Branch has his ass in gear. JHFC this guy was our best inside DL run stopper last year. How can his decline be that steep from just 10 months ago? One positive side note on Branch: I saw him shed a blocker and make a good play in the second half of ATL. After the play was over I saw him explode in his reaction. It suggested to me a guy who has a lot of fire in him to get on the field and make plays.
My opinion: The run D keeps the down-distance situations just barely favorable enough to get nickle type packages on the field? This is when our D is putting its most capable face on the field...

 

[Snooky97]

Jags D is getting better again. Be interesting to see what happens come free agency..

 

[JayNM]

If the Jags had the balls to trade for Jimmy G, I honestly feel like they'd become the best team in the AFC this year, since no one has really seem to be above the pack.

Their D is nasty, their offense is decent, but Blake Bortles is a complete joke.

Then again, maybe they'll be able to get him next off season, without spending multiple picks...

 

[Uptown]

If dareus was moved then other big names could be dealt.

You got that right!

 

[luuked]

If dareus was moved then other big names could be dealt.

The Bills tried to get rid of that locker room cancer and his ridiculous contract since FA started. Don't think it means much for other players.

 

[Adam Seward]

Ah, my bad for assuming.

You can count me in with Branch and the run D being worrying -- without Brown. Take it FWIW but my handful of observations in the first half of ATL was our 4 man DL were holding their point of attack well, even getting some push. It sure makes a LB's job easier when the scrum(for lack of a better word) isn't pushed into the LB's face a half second after the ball is snapped. So if our DL can keep that up at just some similar level, I suspect Van Noy, ER, Harris and the rest of the no name bunch can still make plays (suspect? hope? -- a fine line between the two words ).
We may be fortunate in that the Chargers, statistically speaking, do not have a powerful run game. As well, hopefully, Branch has his ass in gear. JHFC this guy was our best inside DL run stopper last year. How can his decline be that steep from just 10 months ago? One positive side note on Branch: I saw him shed a blocker and make a good play in the second half of ATL. After the play was over I saw him explode in his reaction. It suggested to me a guy who has a lot of fire in him to get on the field and make plays.
My opinion: The run D keeps the down-distance situations just barely favorable enough to get nickle type packages on the field? This is when our D is putting its most capable face on the field...

There were some plays earlier in the season when Branch looked terribly outmatched and out of shape. With Brown now getting injured, I think VV is the best we will get to shore it up, like you said, I am hopeful it comes together for Branch with the return of VV. How long it takes McClellin to get back in the mix I don't know but he was dependable from what I remember of him. We don't have a pure cover LB but I trust Matty P has a solid arrangement in mind.

 

[UGAPatsfan]

He wouldn't do it, but Vince Wilfork would start day 1 on this team if he came out of retirement. As a 2-down player he is still better than what we have.

 

[maineman209]

It seems to me that any trade speculation needs to begin with considering the Pats' current cap space: $4,683,696. Although that's likely to increase a small amount when HT officially goes to IR, it's still not a lot to work with. Even if you cut Dwayne Allen (and, hypothetically replace him with Will Tye from the PS) 2017 cap space would still not be much over $5m.

Although it's not "perfect" by any means, with McClellin and (potentially) Valentine returning in the next 2-3 weeks to shore up the front seven, and with the guys we have on the PS, I honestly think this is a pretty solid and competitive roster on both sides of the ball.

I'm guessing there won't be a trade now unless something irresistible (and affordable) falls into BB's lap.

 

[patsinthesnow]

A day late but I came to post that I respect that Jaguars trade. Sure, Dareus is vastly overpaid as a rotational piece but the Jaguars have won nothing in ages. They finally have an elite commodity in their defense & are trying to bolster it.

If the Jaguars had a Bronco or Raven in their jersey their defense would be getting a lot more attention. They are on pace to have the most sacks for a team in a season since the 1987 Bears & the lowest passer rating against since the 2009 Jets.

They’ve absolutely murdered the Texans & Steelers yet lost to the Jets. They could end up 8-8 or facing us in the AFC title game. What an inconsistent team.

 

[captain stone]

Don't know if this belongs in this thread, but the Loins have released former TB DE Jacquies Smith, 10 days after signing him as a UFA. Perhaps this might be a good time to bring him to Foxborough for a physical/workout and see how his knee is progressing.

 

[long distance]

no doubt its not gonna be popular here . but Pats might bring Freeny back
of course Reilly has PS eligibility advantage..

 

[Uptown]

Just throwing it out there, but I’d love a player like Derek Wolfe on our Defense. Not too expensive, versatile, young, great motor, nasty/aggressive, great against the run/ can rush the passer.

Derek Wolfe

 

[NG Pats Fan]

If the the playoffs ended today, the pats would play Jacksonville and that filthy d line.

Didn't the jaguars lose to the jets?

 

[Wheelman]

Just throwing it out there, but I’d love player like Derek Wolfe on our Defense. Not too expensive, versatile, young, great motor, nasty/ aggressive, great against the run/ can rush the passer.

Derek Wolfe

Don't we have enough smaller D-lineman though? I'd think we'd need a bigger lineman if we traded for a D-lineman. In 2018 it would be ok to take a flyer on him I suppose.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

no doubt its not gonna be popular here . but Pats might bring Freeny back
of course Reilly has PS eligibility advantage..

Shoot me now!!!