X's & O's Hou@NE -- REWATCH Thread

[long distance]

Not to excuse this terrible tackling but I wonder how much of a role the heat played in players becoming sloppy towards the end of plays like that. They use a lot of energy and power already for the initial fight with the OL, then they break through and are facing a quick QB who is totally fresh on that play.. I dont think conditioning in general was a big issue especially because you only get so many of those hot days a season but it just makes me wonder..

I also don't think conditioning was the issue here . or elsewhere . but front guys certainly aren't as fresh as last yr. One thing that might be key difference from last year is rotation. Starters at front 7 are playing more snaps per game than last season. Ill have some fun with rotation numbers later and will share..

 

[Tony2046]

This is the Coaches film view of all the Big Plays from the game. It is one of the best ones I've viewed yet. A lot to devour in this one.

The Notes: Note that the left column "Video play #" references the plays in video order and not the play by play sheet posted earlier.




Video:

 

[long distance]

“front 7“ rotation snap count weeks 1-3

2016
@DL
Branch ......... 31 (51%) + 37 (57%) + 36 (51%)
Brown ......... 30 (49%) + 39 (60%) + 31 (44%)
Valentine .... 20 (33%) + 17 (26%) + 20 (28%)
A.Johnson ... 20 (33%)

@ED
Sheard ........ 44 (72%) + 45 (69%) + 53 (75%)
Long ........... 39 (64%) + 46 (71%) + 55 (77%)
McClellin .... 24 (39%) + 39 (60%) + 25 (35%)
Flowers ....... 21 (34%) + 37 (57%) + 43 (61%)

@LB
Collins ........ 61 (100%) + 65 (100%) + 71 (100%)
Hightower ... 58 (95%)
Freeny ........... 6 (10%) ..+ 36 (55%) ..+ 41 (58%)
Roberts .......................... 6 (9%)


2017
@DL
Brown .......... 48 (70%) + 35 (54%) + 46 (65%)
Guy .............. 26 (38%) + 30 (46%) + 51 (72%)
Branch ......... 42 (62%) ..+ 6 (10%) + 21 (30%)

@ED
Flowers ........ 68 (100%) + 61 (94%) + 68 (96%)
A.Butler ....... 20 (30%) ..+ 45 (70%) + 46 (65%)
Wise ............. 17 (25%) ...+ 28 (43%) + 34 (48%)
Marsh .......... 23 (34%) ...+ 31 (48%) + 31 (44%)
Hightower ... 35 (52%)

@LB
KVN ............ 68 (100%) + 65 (100%) + 71 (100%)
Roberts ......... 9 (13%) ...+ 36 (55%) ..+ 57 (80%)
Harris ........... 2 (4%) .......+ 1 (1.5%) .. +4 (6%)
Richards ..... 41 (60%)
____

As you can see the rotation in 2016 is much more balanced esp. on DL meaning keeping guys more fresh for each snap and fresher in the 4Q.

@dt
Branch and Brown as starters were kept at around 50% throughout the regular season (week 2 slight increase is due to A.Johnson injury and later release)
With Guy and A.Butler coming in I expected more of the same like 2016 week 1 with 4 DTs rotating . unfortunately VV injury and Branch slow start caused Brown to play close to 65% so far and 30 snaps more over first 3 weeks. Guy had 72% last Sunday.

With Branch showing good signs and Hightower possibly re-entering edge rotation (freeing A.Butler for some more inside job again) hopefully this rotation will be more balanced soon.

@ED
Flowers could use a breather as well to be even more effective. His pressure numbers are good and he has some new responsibilities in coverage but he doesn't come across as fresh and explosive throughout the game (of course opponents are more aware of him this yr) so hopefully the trust in Marsh and Wise increases and w High back he should get down to at least some 80% range (even JJ is between 80-90%) possibly less to make him more deadly.

 

[Tony2046]

“front 7“ rotation snap count weeks 1-3

2016
@DL
Branch ......... 31 (51%) + 37 (57%) + 36 (51%)
Brown ......... 30 (49%) + 39 (60%) + 31 (44%)
Valentine .... 20 (33%) + 17 (26%) + 20 (28%)
A.Johnson ... 20 (33%)

@ED
Sheard ........ 44 (72%) + 45 (69%) + 53 (75%)
Long ........... 39 (64%) + 46 (71%) + 55 (77%)
McClellin .... 24 (39%) + 39 (60%) + 25 (35%)
Flowers ....... 21 (34%) + 37 (57%) + 43 (61%)

@LB
Collins ........ 61 (100%) + 65 (100%) + 71 (100%)
Hightower ... 58 (95%)
Freeny ........... 6 (10%) ..+ 36 (55%) ..+ 41 (58%)
Roberts .......................... 6 (9%)


2017
@DL
Brown .......... 48 (70%) + 35 (54%) + 46 (65%)
Guy .............. 26 (38%) + 30 (46%) + 51 (72%)
Branch ......... 42 (62%) ..+ 6 (10%) + 21 (30%)

@ED
Flowers ........ 68 (100%) + 61 (94%) + 68 (96%)
A.Butler ....... 20 (30%) ..+ 45 (70%) + 46 (65%)
Wise ............. 17 (25%) ...+ 28 (43%) + 34 (48%)
Marsh .......... 23 (34%) ...+ 31 (48%) + 31 (44%)
Hightower ... 35 (52%)

@LB
KVN ............ 68 (100%) + 65 (100%) + 71 (100%)
Roberts ......... 9 (13%) ...+ 36 (55%) ..+ 57 (80%)
Harris ........... 2 (4%) .......+ 1 (1.5%) .. +4 (6%)
Richards ..... 41 (60%)
____

As you can see the rotation in 2016 is much more balanced esp. on DL meaning keeping guys more fresh for each snap and fresher in the 4Q.

@dt
Branch and Brown as starters were kept at around 50% throughout the regular season (week 2 slight increase is due to A.Johnson injury and later release)
With Guy and A.Butler coming in I expected more of the same like 2016 week 1 with 4 DTs rotating . unfortunately VV injury and Branch slow start caused Brown to play close to 65% so far and 30 snaps more over first 3 weeks. Guy had 72% last Sunday.

With Branch showing good signs and Hightower possibly re-entering edge rotation (freeing A.Butler for some more inside job again) hopefully this rotation will be more balanced soon.

@ED
Flowers could use a breather as well to be even more effective. His pressure numbers are good and he has some new responsibilities in coverage but he doesn't come across as fresh and explosive throughout the game (of course opponents are more aware of him this yr) so hopefully the trust in Marsh and Wise increases and w High back he should get down to at least some 80% range (even JJ is between 80-90%) possibly less to make him more deadly.

That's very interesting.

 

[jimnance]

Just wanna say thanks to Hammer and Tony for this thread.
Breath of fresh air. Football.

 

[Tony2046]

Thanks Tony! Here are my requests -- I'm going to be a negative Nancy and focus on a few plays that bothered me: runs, and the Watson scramble completion that caused my wife complain about my swearing.... All late 3rd - 4th quarter plays. Basically curious to find out what caused all the breakdowns here.

133 & 134 -- two Houston runs up the gut
146 & 147 -- also two Houston runs up the gut, although 147 wasn't terrible
148 -- I think the world knew this was going to be a QB draw. Who messed up the contain?
161 -- I think this is my aforementioned swearing fest, where Watson evaded a few tackles and someone let their man go to allow a big completion. Correct me if I've got the wrong play.

144 -- The Gillislee 3rd and 1 stuff. Curious to find out what went wrong here.

Thanks in advance!

Here you go. I added plays # 142 and 143 with 144 because they were all Gillislee runs.

 

[luuked]

Branch and Brown as starters were kept at around 50% throughout the regular season (week 2 slight increase is due to A.Johnson injury and later release)
With Guy and A.Butler coming in I expected more of the same like 2016 week 1 with 4 DTs rotating . unfortunately VV injury and Branch slow start caused Brown to play close to 65% so far and 30 snaps more over first 3 weeks. Guy had 72% last Sunday.

With Branch showing good signs and Hightower possibly re-entering edge rotation (freeing A.Butler for some more inside job again) hopefully this rotation will be more balanced soon.

Puts all the complaining about Brown not being impressive a bit in context. Yes, he is not one of the superstars but his effectiveness should go up with more rest when Branch is back in football shape and gets his usual 50% of snaps.

I think the snap counts in combination to previous years could be a good indicator of where BB might look for the usual cheap trade targets. Lets not forget that at least one of McClellin, Mitchell or Valentine will stay on IR and is gone for the year as there are only 2 return spots.

 

[Wheelman]

This is a fantastic breakdown by Ike Taylor of just how good Brady was in the last drive.

Drive of the Week: How the Patriots beat the Texans in Week 3

 

[Wheelman]

Thanks for everything @Tony2046.

Inspired by the same guy @long distance mentioned (Baldy):




Maybe at some point we can look at the issues Solder had and see how much of it was due to the Texans just setting things up nicely vs. him using bad technique/losing the physical battle. Not sure I will find the time to look at it but it could be a good learning experience for some of the posters to see how complex playing on the OL can become.

God damn Clowney pulled the Justin Smith hold that the niners used to do with Justin Smith and Aldon Smith when Harbaugh was coaching the niners.

 

[robbomango]

That was a ridiculous throw, I've watched it 20 times and still not sure how he gets that ball off with a pass rusher in his face. Looked like he was off balance, while getting hit.

 

[NE-VT]

This is the Coaches film view of all the Big Plays from the game.

Video:

VP#2 @ :51

It looks like the Texans are using a cover 1 robber. Basically, M2M with 1 deep safety and 1 safety playing shallow zone. It is a good call to help take away short and intermediate passing routes over the middle, forcing the OL to hold for long enough for deep throws. I believe it is called “robber” because the safety that sneaks up into intermediate coverage often gets interceptions if the QB mistakes it for cover 2 man and throws the intermediate route over the middle. Here is a good write up about the coverage:

NFL 101: Introducing the Basics of Cover 1

The Patriots outside receivers are running a perfect call to beat this coverage, assuming they can beat the CB 1v1. Both outside WRs are running go routes on the far ends of the field. The single deep safety can’t provide help to both CBs.

This is another case where I wonder how the Patriots end up with such a good combination of routes vs. the coverage. Was it just luck? Did JM call the play because of Houston’s tendencies in that situation? Could Brady see the coverage pre snap, despite there being 2 deep safeties at the start? Are the receivers running option routes, and they both ran go’s because of the single high?

There is another interpretation: Perhaps the play is designed to go to the slot receiver if the D is in a normal cover 2 man. The go routes might just be clear out routes normally, but since the safety snuck up, they became the best option.

 

[NE-VT]

This is the Coaches film view of all the Big Plays from the game.

Video:

VP#3 @ 1:33

Based on how the Patriots are lining up, it looks like they are trying to isolate Gronk 1v1. They put 3 WRs on the right side, and have Gronk lined up as a WR on the left. The only two defensive players that could possibly provide help to the defender lined up on Gronk are the single high safety or the outside linebacker, but they have a ways to go to get there once the ball is snapped. Since neither of them spirt toward that side of the field post snap, Brady knows Gronk has the 1v1 they wanted.

 

[NE-VT]

This is the Coaches film view of all the Big Plays from the game.

Video:

VP#4 @ 2:17

So this is an interesting defensive look from the Patriots:

I am not sure what the Patriots call this defense, but I will refer to it as “4-3 nickel”. The Patriots have 3 CBs to match up with the 3 WRs. We have a single high FS, and our SS has come down into the box almost as a third LB. I have noticed this “4-3 nickel” in a bunch of other plays, so I am going to keep using the term.

It seems like the advantage of this formation is that it allows the Patriots to be a bit better against the run, while still having nickel personal against the Pass. The disadvantage is that it makes it obvious that you are running a single high safety look (or maybe a cover-3 zone where both outside CBs drop to take deep thirds). Chung acting as a line-backer makes him not able to get fast enough back for a 2 deep safety look.

The Patriots were in fact in a M2M coverage with a single high deep safety on this play. Houston has 2 receivers attacking separate deep parts of the field, so McCourty can’t easily help with both. Watson does a great job looking off McCourty here. He stares down the receiver on the sideline before firing it down the middle. This is during Watson’s second start!

The Texans have found their QB of the future and should be considered serious contenders going forward.

 

[Tony2046]

VP#4 @ 2:17

So this is an interesting defensive look from the Patriots:

I am not sure what the Patriots call this defense, but I will refer to it as “4-3 nickel”. The Patriots have 3 CBs to match up with the 3 WRs. We have a single high FS, and our SS has come down into the box almost as a third LB. I have noticed this “4-3 nickel” in a bunch of other plays, so I am going to keep using the term.

It seems like the advantage of this formation is that it allows the Patriots to be a bit better against the run, while still having nickel personal against the Pass. The disadvantage is that it makes it obvious that you are running a single high safety look (or maybe a cover-3 zone where both outside CBs drop to take deep thirds). Chung acting as a line-backer makes him not able to get fast enough back for a 2 deep safety look.

The Patriots were in fact in a M2M coverage with a single high deep safety on this play. Houston has 2 receivers attacking separate deep parts of the field, so McCourty can’t easily help with both. Watson does a great job looking off McCourty here. He stares down the receiver on the sideline before firing it down the middle. This is during Watson’s second start!

The Texans have found their QB of the future and should be considered serious contenders going forward.

I saw that. Chung playing the Mike which I think goes back to the Star @long distance was referring to.

Not exactly sure though.

I need to check something later but I thought they basically switched out Richards with Chung and added Jones. Does that sound right?

 

[NE-VT]

I saw that. Chung playing the Mike which I think goes back to the Star @long distance was referring to.

Not exactly sure though.

I need to check something later but I thought they basically switched out Richards with Chung and added Jones. Does that sound right?

I did not notice that personnel change while I was watching live. I was watching with family and was a bit distracted. It is also super hard to tell what is going on with the coverages without the all 22.

I think Jones was the starting slot CB, and he might have played that role all game in so far as he was in. It looks like Richards only played 3 defensive snaps.



Snap Count Report: Texans at Patriots (Week 3)

It is interesting that Harmon, Chung, and Chung all played 70% of the snaps. Did one of these players take the Slot CB from Jones?

 

[Tony2046]

@NE-VT

Another question.

I've been reading about the difference in responsibilities between the 4-3 and the 3-4 wonder if they are going through a learning curve as well.

I'm assuming they ran mostly 3-4 last year.

 

[NE-VT]

@NE-VT

Another question.

I've been reading about the difference in responsibilities between the 4-3 and the 3-4 wonder if they are going through a learning curve as well.

I'm assuming they ran mostly 3-4 last year.

I am not sure how different or similar the Patriots scheme is from last year.

Historically, I know BB has liked a hybrid 3-4/4-3 defense. I love this grantland article it:

Ode to the War Daddies

Most of what I know about defensive coverages and defensive fronts comes from Matt Bowen, the former NFL safety and sports writer. I think his stuff on 4-3 vs. 3-4 is really good.

NFL 101: The Basics of the 4-3 Defensive Front

NFL 101: The Basics of the 3-4 Defensive Front

There a huge differences between straight up 3-4 (3-4 oakie in Bowen's lingo) and straight up 4-3 (4-3 over to Bowen). However, the positioning in a 3-4 under is quite similar to the positioning in a 4-3 under. The difference has more to do with if the DTs are one gapping or two gapping.

I am not confident enough in my ability to analyze a front 7 to differentiate between a team playing 3-4 under and 4-3 under.

edit: I forgot to include Bowen's links

 

[Tony2046]

I am not sure how different or similar the Patriots scheme is from last year.

Historically, I know BB has liked a hybrid 3-4/4-3 defense. I love this grantland article it:

Ode to the War Daddies

Most of what I know about defensive coverages and defensive fronts comes from Matt Bowen, the former NFL safety and sports writer. I think his stuff on 4-3 vs. 3-4 is really good.

NFL 101: The Basics of the 4-3 Defensive Front

NFL 101: The Basics of the 3-4 Defensive Front

There a huge differences between straight up 3-4 (3-4 oakie in Bowen's lingo) and straight up 4-3 (4-3 over to Bowen). However, the positioning in a 3-4 under is quite similar to the positioning in a 4-3 under. The difference has more to do with if the DTs are one gapping or two gapping.

I am not confident enough in my ability to analyze a front 7 to differentiate between a team playing 3-4 under and 4-3 under.

edit: I forgot to include Bowen's links

Man. You post some really good stuff. Thanks.

 

[NE-VT]

Man. You post some really good stuff. Thanks.

Aww, thanks; I appreciate it! Thank you for your work to keep this thread going!

I do think you are correct thinking about that S/LB as the star* role @long distance was referring to. It seemd like Chung is struggling in this role at times.

Last week on the "spider 2 y banana play" Chung failed to realize it was a play action fast enough, but it was understandable. That play notoriously hard to pick up, and that FB is almost always open. This play might be way worse for Chung:

Thor's Request

PN#134 @ :02

Again the Patriots are in the “4-3 nickel” look. You can tell that Chung is responsible for the TE in M2M coverage because of how Chung follows him in motion.

The Texans are running a QB option run play where they leave our DE unblocked. If our DE closed fast on the RB, Watson would have kept the ball and ran to the outside. The problem is that Chung was too focused on the TE he had in M2M coverage to notice it was a run play at all. He follows the TE out-wide, away from the run.

I wonder if a more experienced LB could have read the play as a run faster by watching the RT. It seems clear that the RT is run blocking rather than pass blocking; he is blocking past the line of scrimmage. If Chung was able to read it, he might have been able to quickly close on the hole, and let the DE keep outside contain.

 

[long distance]

great BB breakdown here
gameplanning based on preseason game (so not that unimportant)
in game gameplanning based on expected adjustment from opponent