Here is my list of contenders, all of them have exceptions:
Tier 1 -
SEA - If they can get their oline straightened out, they seem to always play us tough
ATL - If they can avoid a SB hangover
Tier 2 -
OAK - If they can improve their D
HOU - If they can get a QB, but they can replace a decent player in Bouye
Tier 3 -
NYG - If they can get their oline straightened out and Eli can get his head out of his ***
GB - With Rodgers there is always a chance, but I still think their depth is a step behind NE
DAL - They might take a step back from last year with some of the OL depth signing elsewhere
PIT - Great O, but their D just doesn't scare me
DEN - If they can get a QB (Romo?)
KC - They are a great team when everyone is healthy, but that never seems to be the case around playoffs