I don't get why people think the Pats can offer Garoppolo money to sit & wait for Brady to retire

[deroc5050]

Why would the pats even consider paying their starter and backup close to 20% of their total cap $? The simple fact is that either Tom or Jimmy G are gone either this season or next. QB isn't a position where they'll both see the field during the same game like the other positions.

This season seems like a perfect scenario where the Pats can maximize the value by trading Jimmy G and Jimmy G can also get a huge contract. Both sides win near and likely long term. If the trade happens, I'd think it would happen the first day of the draft.

Well the only reason why they could possibly consider is because the GOAT is going to be 40 years old.

However if they think Brady is here for at least 3 more seasons.. I would take the draft picks this off season.

Next year you will know more about Jacoby and if he is legit, and if you have doubts then spend 1 of those 2nd round picks on the next QB next season.

I personally just find it a little to optimistic that Brady will play for 3 more seasons. Its just a risk.

 

[Rob0729]

using this argument would have the pats make a deal to get the 199th pick each year to draft a QB will yield and endless list of Tom Bradys

It's really horrible logic.....

Ladies and gentlemen....the 16th pick in the draft

2016 Taylor Decker Lions 1 16 16 T Ohio State
2015 Kevin Johnson Texans 1 16 16 DB Wake Forest
2014 Zack Martin Cowboys 1 16 16 T Notre Dame
2013 E.J. Manuel Bills 1 16 16 QB Florida State
2012 Quinton Coples Jets 1 16 16 DE North Carolina
2011 Ryan Kerrigan Redskins 1 16 16 LB Purdue
2010 Derrick Morgan Titans 1 16 16 DE Georgia Tech
2009 Larry English Chargers 1 16 16 LB Northern Illinois
2008 Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie Cardinals 1 16 16 DB Tennessee State
2007 Justin Harrell Packers 1 16 16 DT Tennessee
2006 Jason Allen Dolphins 1 16 16 DB Tennessee
2005 Travis Johnson Texans 1 16 16 DT Florida State
2004 Shawn Andrews Eagles 1 16 16 T Arkansas
2003 Troy Polamalu Steelers 1 16 16 DB USC
2002 William Green Browns 1 16 16 RB Boston College
2001 Santana Moss Jets 1 16 16 WR Miami (FL)
2000 Julian Peterson 49ers 1 16 16 LB Michigan State
1999 Jevon Kearse Oilers 1 16 16 LB Florida
1998 Kevin Dyson Oilers 1 16 16 WR Utah
1997 Reidel Anthony Buccaneers 1 16 16 WR Florida
1996 Duane Clemons Vikings 1 16 16 DE California
1995 Hugh Douglas Jets 1 16 16 DE Central State (OH)
1994 Aaron Taylor Packers 1 16 16 T Notre Dame
1993 Sean Dawkins Colts 1 16 16 WR California
1992 Chester McGlockton Raiders 1 16 16 DT Clemson
1991 Dan McGwire Seahawks 1 16 16 QB San Diego State
1990 James Williams Bills 1 16 16 DB Fresno State
1989 Hart Lee Dykes Patriots 1 16 16 WR Oklahoma State
1988 Eric Kumerow

Huh?!?

So are you arguing that historically the 16th pick have had a lot of busts, you wouldn't trade trade Garoppolo for it, but let's say if the 17th picks had a lot of All Pros and Hall of Famers you would trade for that pick? Who cares historically what the 16th pick in the draft has netted?

If you want to historical data to see what kind of player the Pats would draft if they got the 16th pick in a trade, you have to look what Belichick has done with a mid-first round pick. Off the top of my head, Belichick drafted Warren, Mayo, and Chandler Jones in the mid first round. That is a more accurate indicator of what Belichick would do with the 16th picks not what the Jets did or what any other team did with the 16th pick.

And what is with this 199th pick crap. I mentioned Dak Prescott who was drafted in the second round who became a solid starter in his rookie season. I can point to Russell Wilson or Andy Dalton (drafted in the second round and made the Pro Bowl his rookie season).

 

[Oswlek]

The other option that no one is discussing is the possibility to place a first round tender on him, so we'd likely get a first round pick.

No one is talking about it because it's not possible; JG won't be an RFA next year.

To date, I've yet to see an argument for keeping Jimmy that isn't either overly simplistic or reliant on unwarranted, unlikely assumptions. I think he's a terrific prospect so I'd love to keep him around, I just don't see how it can be done barring exceptional circumstances.

 

[IllegalContact]

Huh?!?

So are you arguing that historically the 16th pick have had a lot of busts, you wouldn't trade trade Garoppolo for it, but let's say if the 17th picks had a lot of All Pros and Hall of Famers you would trade for that pick? Who cares historically what the 16th pick in the draft has netted?

If you want to historical data to see what kind of player the Pats would draft if they got the 16th pick in a trade, you have to look what Belichick has done with a mid-first round pick. Off the top of my head, Belichick drafted Warren, Mayo, and Chandler Jones in the mid first round. That is a more accurate indicator of what Belichick would do with the 16th picks not what the Jets did or what any other team did with the 16th pick.

And what is with this 199th pick crap. I mentioned Dak Prescott who was drafted in the second round who became a solid starter in his rookie season. I can point to Russell Wilson or Andy Dalton (drafted in the second round and made the Pro Bowl his rookie season).

You used 16th so I rolled with it

As for Prescott, he was in the 4th round and 8 qbs were drafters ahead of him that took their teams nowhere....the pats took brissett ahead of Prescott so this entire point is pretty useless

Even 1st rounders are completely random on whether they would even contribute

For a team with super bowl aspirations this year ..... the player is more important than the pick and it's not close

 

[maineman209]

Given Brady's time at UMich I don't believe for a second he would be willing to do anything like this.

I tend to agree. The chances certainly seems slim.

OTOH, it's all sheer speculation on our part, so why not think outside the box?

 

[Rob0729]

You used 16th so I rolled with it

As for Prescott, he was in the 4th round and 8 qbs were drafters ahead of him that took their teams nowhere....the pats took brissett ahead of Prescott so this entire point is pretty useless

Even 1st rounders are completely random on whether they would even contribute

For a team with super bowl aspirations this year ..... the player is more important than the pick and it's not close

For a team with Super Bowl aspirations, a player who is likely to never play a single meaningful down the entire season is more important than the 16th overall pick and potentially several other high picks? In what universe? We are talking about a back up QB not a starting CB. You should be making this argument about Malcolm Butler not Jimmy Garoppolo.

And I used the 16th overall pick because that is the pick the Browns have and likely to offer in a trade. The 16th overall pick is likely a NFL ready player and most likely would contribute to a Super Bowl than a back up QB.

 

[maineman209]

The Pats can get a capable back up. I wouldn't mind Ryan Fitzpatrick who can do his Fitzmagic for a few games. I wouldn't want him as a fulltime starter though.

Passing on the 16th pick in the draft plus other high picks to have a back up for Brady is a little silly. Dak Prescott showed you can find a more than capable rookie back up beyond the first round in the draft.

Well, a team can "find a more than capable QB beyond the first round in the draft", but what are the odds?

I got curious about this a coupe weeks back, so I ran the numbers on drafted QBs from 2006-2015.

Using a fairly generous definition of "successful", teams that drafted a QB with the #1 overall pick got a successful QB 5 out of 6 times. Teams drafting a QB in the first round who was not the #1 overall pick hit about 30% of the time. Teams drafting a QB outside of the first round hit on a successful QB significantly less often than they'd hit on filling an inside straight.

So, "can"? Yes. "Likely to"? Ummmm ...

 

[Rob0729]

Well, a team can "find a more than capable QB beyond the first round in the draft", but what are the odds?

I got curious about this a coupe weeks back, so I ran the numbers on drafted QBs from 2006-2015.

Using a fairly generous definition of "successful", teams that drafted a QB with the #1 overall pick got a successful QB 5 out of 6 times. Teams drafting a QB in the first round who was not the #1 overall pick hit about 30% of the time. Teams drafting a QB outside of the first round hit on a successful QB significantly less often than they'd hit on filling an inside straight.

So, "can"? Yes. "Likely to"? Ummmm ...

I can't believe people are arguing that we cannot trade Garoppolo for a bonanza a picks including the 16th overall pick because it will be too hard to find a back up for Brady in 2017. Is this really the the "Don't trade Jimmy" crowd wants to stand behind.

Yes, we can easily find a capable back up QB. You don't give up on what might be a Herschel Walker type of trade of picks because you are concerned who your back up QB will be. That is stupid.

And as for finding a future starter, none of us know what the future holds with or without Garoppolo. People are ready to anoint the guy after six quarters. He may not be remotely as good as you think he is.

 

[maineman209]

I can't believe people are arguing that we cannot trade Garoppolo for a bonanza a picks including the 16th overall pick because it will be too hard to find a back up for Brady in 2017. Is this really the the "Don't trade Jimmy" crowd wants to stand behind.

Yes, we can easily find a capable back up QB. You don't give up on what might be a Herschel Walker type of trade of picks because you are concerned who your back up QB will be. That is stupid.

And as for finding a future starter, none of us know what the future holds with or without Garoppolo. People are ready to anoint the guy after six quarters. He may not be remotely as good as you think he is.

First of all, a "Herschel Walker type of trade of picks" is merely an assumption at this point. But, it would mean that some other team with such a boatload of picks to trade thinks that JG actually is as good as the "Don't trade Jimmy crowd" thinks he is.

Personally, I'm not "anointing" JG for anything, and I'm not basing my evaluation of him on "six quarters." FWIW, I was a local Drew Henson fan (and met him once) when he was still blowing up state high school records in Brighton, Michigan (I lived in the next town over). I also watched Brady and Henson from the stands in U of M stadium on several occasions.

I moved to Maine in 2000 BEFORE the Pats drafted Brady (lucky me!) and was confident enough in his abilities that, when Bledsoe got injured in 2001, I told my co-workers, "Don't worry. This Brady kid could take this team to the Superbowl." No joke. I actually said that.

I've seen all of Brady's rookie backups since then, including Cassell and Hoyer (who I thought were both comparatively "decent"). I also watched JG from the stands at the Pats Camp practices when he was a rookie. It was the first time I ever thought, "This guy is the real deal." His performance in those six quarters was no revelation to me, it merely confirmed my expectations that he's a high-end, NFL-caliber starting QB.

As a Pats fan, I really want to see the historic streak of success of the BB-Brady Era continue for as long as possible into the future. So, yes, I am "concerned" about who Brady's backup will be because I understand that successful streak is highly likely to be broken, perhaps even come to a sudden end, unless there's a very good QB backing Brady up. And, yes, I think that JG is "that guy". And, yes, I think that the odds are highly stacked against the Pats coming up with an equivalent replacement in the draft in the next couple years no matter how many picks they have.

If you think that's "stupid", I'm fine with it.

 

[archstanton543]

In answer to the OP's question, as in many things, the following quote by George Carlin applies:

Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.

 

[Brit patriot]

To use a UK politics analogy, it would end up like Brown waiting five years for Blair to resign and hand over the job. I can just Jimmy moaning at the start of training camp 'oh come on, you said you would retire last year'.

It isn't healthy so won't happen, unless Brady has a retirement date inked which we don't know about

 

[Rob0729]

First of all, a "Herschel Walker type of trade of picks" is merely an assumption at this point. But, it would mean that some other team with such a boatload of picks to trade thinks that JG actually is as good as the "Don't trade Jimmy crowd" thinks he is.

Personally, I'm not "anointing" JG for anything, and I'm not basing my evaluation of him on "six quarters." FWIW, I was a local Drew Henson fan (and met him once) when he was still blowing up state high school records in Brighton, Michigan (I lived in the next town over). I also watched Brady and Henson from the stands in U of M stadium on several occasions.

I moved to Maine in 2000 BEFORE the Pats drafted Brady (lucky me!) and was confident enough in his abilities that, when Bledsoe got injured in 2001, I told my co-workers, "Don't worry. This Brady kid could take this team to the Superbowl." No joke. I actually said that.

I've seen all of Brady's rookie backups since then, including Cassell and Hoyer (who I thought were both comparatively "decent"). I also watched JG from the stands at the Pats Camp practices when he was a rookie. It was the first time I ever thought, "This guy is the real deal." His performance in those six quarters was no revelation to me, it merely confirmed my expectations that he's a high-end, NFL-caliber starting QB.

As a Pats fan, I really want to see the historic streak of success of the BB-Brady Era continue for as long as possible into the future. So, yes, I am "concerned" about who Brady's backup will be because I understand that successful streak is highly likely to be broken, perhaps even come to a sudden end, unless there's a very good QB backing Brady up. And, yes, I think that JG is "that guy". And, yes, I think that the odds are highly stacked against the Pats coming up with an equivalent replacement in the draft in the next couple years no matter how many picks they have.

If you think that's "stupid", I'm fine with it.

You responded to me responding to a post where the poster was arguing that teams on a Super Bowl run in 2017 don't trade away a back up QB like Garoppolo even for the 16th pick in the draft along with several other high draft picks because you don't want to risk tanking the Super Bowl run. And yes, that argument is stupid.

Also, the Browns are going to offer a boat load of picks. They already offered the 16th and are committed to try again by most reports. The Herschel Walker thing is an expression and not really expecting that type of trade.

If you think Garoppolo is the guy, that means you are ok with the Pats cutting or trading Brady after this season. No way both of them are on the roster after this season. If you are for keeping Jimmy, you are for unloading Tom.

I disagree with your assessment of Garoppolo. Not that he couldn't be the guy, but that we have seen enough (even if you went to every training camp practice) to say that we know if he is the guy. He has never seen a defense that game planned to stop him specifically and exploit his weaknesses. Both Arizona and Miami played off man zone which not only plays to Garoppolo's strengths, but the strengths of his receivers and the offense in general.

We have yet to see a defense in a real game bump his receivers off the line, take away his first and second read, and make Garoppolo actually be patient and let a play develop. His biggest weakness is that he holds onto the ball too long in these situations and no one tried to exploit it.

 

[sb1]

using this argument would have the pats make a deal to get the 199th pick each year to draft a QB will yield and endless list of Tom Bradys

It's really horrible logic.....

Ladies and gentlemen....the 16th pick in the draft

2016 Taylor Decker Lions 1 16 16 T Ohio State
2015 Kevin Johnson Texans 1 16 16 DB Wake Forest
2014 Zack Martin Cowboys 1 16 16 T Notre Dame
2013 E.J. Manuel Bills 1 16 16 QB Florida State
2012 Quinton Coples Jets 1 16 16 DE North Carolina
2011 Ryan Kerrigan Redskins 1 16 16 LB Purdue
2010 Derrick Morgan Titans 1 16 16 DE Georgia Tech
2009 Larry English Chargers 1 16 16 LB Northern Illinois
2008 Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie Cardinals 1 16 16 DB Tennessee State
2007 Justin Harrell Packers 1 16 16 DT Tennessee
2006 Jason Allen Dolphins 1 16 16 DB Tennessee
2005 Travis Johnson Texans 1 16 16 DT Florida State
2004 Shawn Andrews Eagles 1 16 16 T Arkansas
2003 Troy Polamalu Steelers 1 16 16 DB USC
2002 William Green Browns 1 16 16 RB Boston College
2001 Santana Moss Jets 1 16 16 WR Miami (FL)
2000 Julian Peterson 49ers 1 16 16 LB Michigan State
1999 Jevon Kearse Oilers 1 16 16 LB Florida
1998 Kevin Dyson Oilers 1 16 16 WR Utah
1997 Reidel Anthony Buccaneers 1 16 16 WR Florida
1996 Duane Clemons Vikings 1 16 16 DE California
1995 Hugh Douglas Jets 1 16 16 DE Central State (OH)
1994 Aaron Taylor Packers 1 16 16 T Notre Dame
1993 Sean Dawkins Colts 1 16 16 WR California
1992 Chester McGlockton Raiders 1 16 16 DT Clemson
1991 Dan McGwire Seahawks 1 16 16 QB San Diego State
1990 James Williams Bills 1 16 16 DB Fresno State
1989 Hart Lee Dykes Patriots 1 16 16 WR Oklahoma State
1988 Eric Kumerow

Completely irrelevant. But you knew that. Carry on.

 

[Nunchucks]

By franchising Jimmy G. the Patriots are basically passing up 2-3 impact starters

 

[archstanton543]

By franchising Jimmy G. the Patriots are basically passing up 2-3 impact starters

How about if the franchise him and then trade him?

 

[Nunchucks]

How about if the franchise him and then trade him?

Why not just trade him for the number 12 overall pick+other picks right now?

 

[archstanton543]

Why not just trade him for the number 12 overall pick+other picks right now?

Insurance for this season.

 

[Nunchucks]

Insurance for this season.

Would you trade the number 12 overall pick for "insurance" and by "insurance" I mean a backup QB that you think might be good...like Mike Flynn or Matt Schaub or Rob Johnson?

 

[Rob0729]

How about if the franchise him and then trade him?

His trade value could drop exponentially next year. Next year's draft could be loaded with great QB prospects. And the NFL is what have you done for me lately League. Garoppolo is the hot property based on what he did this season. Next year, it could be another back up who is that hot property and people will have forgotten those six quarters from Garoppolo.

If you are going to trade Garoppolo, you do it this offseason.

 

[sb1]

His trade value could drop exponentially next year. Next year's draft could be loaded with great QB prospects. And the NFL is what have you done for me lately League. Garoppolo is the hot property based on what he did this season. Next year, it could be another back up who is that hot property and people will have forgotten those six quarters from Garoppolo.

If you are going to trade Garoppolo, you do it this offseason.

I suspect it is indeed next years draft where the Patriots will be drafting a QB with the intent to find the heir to Tom.