With Deadline Looming, Things Are About To Get Interesting With Hightower

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With Deadline Looming, Things Are About To Get Interesting With Hightower

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With the month of February about to come to an end, things are about to get interesting with one of New England's key free agents heading into tomorrow's 4pm deadline where teams will have to decide whether or not to use their franchise or transition tag.

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[mgteich]

The transition tag seems most likely.

 

[Ring 6]

The transition tag seems most likely.

I disagree. Saving a few million would matter if we were tight against the cap, but saving a few million in order to give other teams the right to drive the price up, seems counter-productive. Tag and negotiate a long term deal, just like Wilfork.

 

[long distance]

With so many Hightower threads flying around let me add this here
___

While Ill be happy if Hightower is signed long-term I am comfortable knowing it won't be for unreasonable dollars. (I am blessed this is the team that will never pay a WR 4y 68M etc. despite increasing cap)

Is that possible in this year's market . overloaded with money and short on top players (LB especially)? Unfortunately the odds are pretty much against it. While I can understand Reiss line of thinking in today's article on High - Dont'a Hightower's free-agent process could resemble Devin McCourty's - I think its a little naive . somewhat disregarding the difference in general and specific FA market situation of D-Mac and High.

The thing where Reiss is right is that BB will not get intimidated by market. He knows better than anybody what Hightower is worth to this Patriot team and in general (accounting injury situation, leadership, Pats LB depth, LB market incl. UFA, RFA and trades etc. - all this with view on 2018 not 2017 as Lombardi explained). He will (and most probably already has) lay down the best possible offer considering all that, willing to pay a little extra . but not much.

If competing for High long-term in this years market is not reasonably possible then there are 4 options.
1. Keeping him for 1y under FT: I don' think that will make anyone happy: BB would overpay the tag that is 15M (all LB incl. Von etc.) instead of 10.5M (ILB) for an injury prone player that will be extra careful re playing with injury (since tag carries no insurance in case of injury). Hightower will be happy with the money of course but will live in fear of injury.
2. Transition tag him: While this tag is much cheaper (11M) it gives Pats only little leverage (5 days delay that keeps High out of the first days of FA frenzy that could possibly shy away some suitors - but not likely) and is the only option that could leave them completely empty-handed (not even 2018 comp pick). On the other hand it would be very much BB like: lets see what the market really says when it gets down to sign the paper and then decide if matching that is worth it.
3. FT to trade: If BB&co assess that it is not possible to keep Hightower on their terms the most economic option would be to tag&trade him. The unfairly high cost of his FT might scare suitors as well, but they would be willing to offer him more than the Pats long-term so it shouldn't be too scary. There are ways to “reduce“ his tag cost in trades by taking in account cap-hit players from trade partners (similar to Cooper in CJ deal) - more about this in today's Patspulpit article here: Patriots should tag-and-trade LB Dont'a Hightower
4. Let him walk for a probable 2018 3rd round comp pick.

In the end, only Pats FO (and BB in particular) know how much Hightower is worth to them - also in light of roster building beyond 2017.

And while Id love to see him signed long-term - Id be very much curious to see how they go about it by letting him go. (bc as we've learned so many times - this team doesn't stand or fall on Hightower)

In any case: most exciting team building couple of years are ahead of us.

 

[Jimke]

The Patriots are playing games with regard to Hightower. Just like Collins and Chandler Jones, they are getting ready to dump him. Giving him the transition tag
will make it appear as though they are still negotiating with him.

 

[The Gr8est]

What is the difference between the exclusive and non-exclusive FT moneywise?

Seems like it may be worth it to use the non-exclusive tag to get a lower payout as well as getting 1st round draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere.

 

[captain insano]

The Patriots are playing games with regard to Hightower. Just like Collins and Chandler Jones, they are getting ready to dump him. Giving him the transition tag
will make it appear as though they are still negotiating with him.

he's as good as gone.

 

[Dexter]

I think it's gonna play out similar to what happened with McCourty two years ago.

 

[Love The Drake]

We almost lost Mccourty

 

[Ring 6]

With so many Hightower threads flying around let me add this here
___

While Ill be happy if Hightower is signed long-term I am comfortable knowing it won't be for unreasonable dollars. (I am blessed this is the team that will never pay a WR 4y 68M etc. despite increasing cap)

Is that possible in this year's market . overloaded with money and short on top players (LB especially)? Unfortunately the odds are pretty much against it. While I can understand Reiss line of thinking in today's article on High - Dont'a Hightower's free-agent process could resemble Devin McCourty's - I think its a little naive . somewhat disregarding the difference in general and specific FA market situation of D-Mac and High.

The thing where Reiss is right is that BB will not get intimidated by market. He knows better than anybody what Hightower is worth to this Patriot team and in general (accounting injury situation, leadership, Pats LB depth, LB market incl. UFA, RFA and trades etc. - all this with view on 2018 not 2017 as Lombardi explained). He will (and most probably already has) lay down the best possible offer considering all that, willing to pay a little extra . but not much.

If competing for High long-term in this years market is not reasonably possible then there are 4 options.
1. Keeping him for 1y under FT: I don' think that will make anyone happy: BB would overpay the tag that is 15M (all LB incl. Von etc.) instead of 10.5M (ILB) for an injury prone player that will be extra careful re playing with injury (since tag carries no insurance in case of injury). Hightower will be happy with the money of course but will live in fear of injury.
2. Transition tag him: While this tag is much cheaper (11M) it gives Pats only little leverage (5 days delay that keeps High out of the first days of FA frenzy that could possibly shy away some suitors - but not likely) and is the only option that could leave them completely empty-handed (not even 2018 comp pick). On the other hand it would be very much BB like: lets see what the market really says when it gets down to sign the paper and then decide if matching that is worth it.
3. FT to trade: If BB&co assess that it is not possible to keep Hightower on their terms the most economic option would be to tag&trade him. The unfairly high cost of his FT might scare suitors as well, but they would be willing to offer him more than the Pats long-term so it shouldn't be too scary. There are ways to “reduce“ his tag cost in trades by taking in account cap-hit players from trade partners (similar to Cooper in CJ deal) - more about this in today's Patspulpit article here: Patriots should tag-and-trade LB Dont'a Hightower
4. Let him walk for a probable 2018 3rd round comp pick.

In the end, only Pats FO (and BB in particular) know how much Hightower is worth to them - also in light of roster building beyond 2017.

And while Id love to see him signed long-term - Id be very much curious to see how they go about it by letting him go. (bc as we've learned so many times - this team doesn't stand or fall on Hightower)

In any case: most exciting team building couple of years are ahead of us.

I think Hightower is one of those special players. Limiting it to players drafted by BB, I would consider the following players to be 'special'.
Brady, Seymour, Wilfork, Mayo, Light, Mankins, McCourty, Hightower.

All top players, all almost from day 1. All leaders. All guys with buy-in to what BB does.
Every other one got a second contract and most of them were very highly paid for the period.

 

[Ring 6]

The Patriots are playing games with regard to Hightower. Just like Collins and Chandler Jones, they are getting ready to dump him. Giving him the transition tag
will make it appear as though they are still negotiating with him.

How are they playing games?
His contract is up, and they have the choice of letting him walk, signing him to a new deal, or putting the franchise tag on him.
Please let us in on your knowledge of what has been going on so far that is 'playing games'.

 

[mgteich]

I disagree. Saving a few million would matter if we were tight against the cap, but saving a few million in order to give other teams the right to drive the price up, seems counter-productive. Tag and negotiate a long term deal, just like Wilfork.

Hightower would certainly welcome a franchise tag. It would be a great starting point for negotiations, for Hightower.

 

[Ring 6]

Hightower would certainly welcome a franchise tag. It would be a great starting point for negotiations, for Hightower.

I'm not sure what point you are trying to make here.

 

[mgteich]

I'm not sure what point you are trying to make here.

I don't think that the patriots are willing to pay the franchise tag amount to Hightower for 2017 services. I don't think that anyone would give much to have the rights to Hightower for one year at $14M+.

I believe that the transition tag is the most reasonable approach.

 

[long distance]

I think Hightower is one of those special players. Limiting it to players drafted by BB, I would consider the following players to be 'special'.
Brady, Seymour, Wilfork, Mayo, Light, Mankins, McCourty, Hightower.

All top players, all almost from day 1. All leaders. All guys with buy-in to what BB does.
Every other one got a second contract and most of them were very highly paid for the period.

No doubt about Hightower being a special player deserving big long-term contract.
I believe everyone agrees on that.

How big is another matter: 10-11M APY they reportedly offered before the season? 12.5M APY to make him highest payed ILB? 13M+ that some other teams can and are possibly willing to offer?

And it might not even be about APY . but about structure and guarantees. There's injury history that a responsible GM just has to take into account..

 

[long distance]

I don't think that the patriots are willing to pay the franchise tag amount to Hightower for 2017 services. I don't think that anyone would give much to have the rights to Hightower for one year at $14M+.

I believe that the transition tag is the most reasonable approach.

Trading him under tag certainly is a possibility - the most economic though not the easiest one.

I posted this in my first post but in case you missed it and you are interested, here's a way to make a FT tagged guy more attractive to suitors: Patriots should tag-and-trade LB Dont'a Hightower.

 

[Ring 6]

I don't think that the patriots are willing to pay the franchise tag amount to Hightower for 2017 services. I don't think that anyone would give much to have the rights to Hightower for one year at $14M+.

I believe that the transition tag is the most reasonable approach.

Tagging and trading is pointless, it just isn't going to happen.

Why risk losing him over 3 mill?
11 mill and the right to leave, vs 14 mill and you can only negotiate with me is a nobrainer. On the transition, he is either gone, or he finds the team that will sign him next year without giving up a pick.
Under the transition, he probably doesn't even negotiate here, and is probably MORE pissed that he gets 3 mill less and has a phony transition period where teams have to give up a pick to sign him and nothing to sign other FAs.
There is a reason the transition tag doesn't get used.
In the event they cannot work out a deal, in the big picture having HT here for 2017 at 11 mill or 14 mill isn't really a huge difference.

 

[Ring 6]

No doubt about Hightower being a special player deserving big long-term contract.
I believe everyone agrees on that.

How big is another matter: 10-11M APY they reportedly offered before the season? 12.5M APY to make him highest payed ILB? 13M+ that some other teams can and are possibly willing to offer?

And it might not even be about APY . but about structure and guarantees. There's injury history that a responsible GM just has to take into account..

There is no injury history that is debilitating.

I believe that BB feels HT is the best LB in the NFL. I say that based upon how he uses him.
No LB in the NFL is used like HT. None have as many, varied and critical responsibilities.
Think about everything any LB has ever done, and basically it is part of what BB does with Hightower.

Hightower does not blitz a lot. When he does he is probably as effective as any pass rusher in the NFL. But he has too many skills to be turned into a one trick pony. Why do you think he was pass rushing in the SB, when we were behind and needed a big play?

In essence BB has Von Miller on his defense, but chooses to get more out of him because he has other skills as well.
Some team may sign HT, turn him into a 34 OLB, and he will compete for the league lead in sacks, and he will be wasted.

BB is not likely to let that kind of player get away, UNLESS the injury history is something that is chronic.

 

[Ring 6]

I don't think that the patriots are willing to pay the franchise tag amount to Hightower for 2017 services. I don't think that anyone would give much to have the rights to Hightower for one year at $14M+.

I believe that the transition tag is the most reasonable approach.

Von Miller got 19 million a year for 6 years with 70 mill guaranteed in the first 3.
And Hightower is a better football player.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

And it might not even be about APY . but about structure and guarantees. There's injury history that a responsible GM just has to take into account..

We have a winner! Almost guarantee you this is about guaranteed money, as it usually is with the Pats. They don't want to get stuck with a Revis contract. Sometimes the dollar difference between their offer and the market's best offer isn't that much, even enough for Hightower to take the deal, but their offset language is always a huge deal compared to other teams. Real guaranteed money could be a difference of $10M plus. That's real money, folks, and Hightower may only get one opportunity to be a free agent.

The other thing is that, while linebackers and pass rushers are important, especially versatile ones, are important, IMO there are so many options out there as one-year rentals, veterans like Chris Long and Dwight Freeny last year, but it's almost impossible to find any kind of loss mitigation for guys like Butler or McCourty, who are still in their primes and have no injury history. Is it worth paying Hightower what he wants if it means we can't extend Butler? No, it is not. That said, I hope they work out a deal, but BB is almost always right about these things and how to play out the process.