I didn't actually see the Perillo piece, but thought I saw pick 110 mentioned by others. Actually, 110 is a really weird number to use now that I think of it. It's doubtful there would be 14 3rd-round comp picks.
I'm not an expert in comp picks, but this page seems to think $9M is the range for 3rd/4th round tenders, while 4th/5th should fall just under $7M from last off-season.
Compensatory Draft Picks Cancellation Chart - Over the Cap
Obviously Floyd comes with issues, but it really only takes one team. I wouldn't be surprised to see Floyd get a similar deal to Sanu and Jones from the Bengals last off-season.
Sanu's best season had 790 yards, while his contract year was down to 394 yards, yet he got a 5 year, $32.5M with $14M guaranteed. Marvin Jones had 816 yards in his contract season after missing 2014 with injury. He got a 5-year, $40M deal with $20M guaranteed.
Floyd is better than both and has the numbers to back it up, but has the obvious DUI questions. But with an extra $10-$15M projected on the 2017 cap, it's possible a similar deal to Sanu/Jones could net a 4th, and possibly a 3rd. And depending on his Patriots audition, potentially more.
There aren't a ton of big name free agent WRs in this off-season. Alshon Jeffery is the obvious #1, except now he's returning from a 4-game suspension due to PEDs and has his own question marks. Emmanuel Sanders is available, although isn't necessarily an outside guy. DeSean Jackson is the other big name. Other than that, you're looking at...Terrance Williams? Markus Wheaton?
If I had to guess (because I'm not an expert), it's probably closer to a 4th rounder than a 3rd rounder. That might push the pick back into the 130 range, but the math still more or less is similar (3.7 above career AV for pick 130 vs. 4.7 for pick 110). All the guys I projected were in that range anyways so the math more or less remains the same. Someone smarter (or more motivated) could probably dump multiple data sets into Excel to get better comparables, but more or less should reach the same conclusion.
Even without the comp pick, I love the rental. It's a chance to see if you even want to make an offer on this guy. I thought the Patriots would kick the tires in the off-season, but now you get to actually see if he works in the system or not before committing a ton of money. Think about what we paid Amendola in his first contract, only to see Jules overtake him. Dola has carved out a nice role for himself, but he was clearly overpaid initially and we were projecting what he could be. Chris Hogan is another projection, and it has worked out fine, although it could have been bad. We basically get to try out Floyd beforehand to see if he fits or not. For that reason alone, I love this claim.
Also, bear in mind we are not guaranteed a comp pick. BB might sign some crazy free agent deal that cancels it out. Who knows? But in general, buying draft picks for that type of money is good business.
