Beware the Trap game - On to Buffalo

[ViperGTS]

The return of TB12 AND Josh Gordon...Should be interesting to say the least!

They don't have s QB in Cleveland. Poor Gordon. He'd look great here.

 

[FourierSeries]

I hope we beat them with Edelman at QB.

 

[FourierSeries]

They don't have s QB in Cleveland. Poor Gordon. He'd look great here.

Hell, we could start him at QB and he'd excel here.

 

[SVN]

This game has all the markings of a total trap game. I honestly think Rex Ryan will pull out all the stops as he has a very good chance of being fired if his 0-3 Bills come into Gillette and lose to a backup, or 3rd string QB on a division opponent.

The Bills are going to lose to AZ this weekend, that's a given...but Do any of you feel this is a trap game?

I actually think they wlll beat arizona this week . Cards lose these type of games , on the road,1pm start for a west coast team.
Rex's defense will be a bigger challenge for us with all the blitzing and stuff than what romeo did on a short week. Plus division game.
I think one of jimmy or jacoby will play.

 

[n1997y]

No longer a trap game, after news Brissett is injured. Circle the wagons!

 

[Billsfanonapatsforum]

I hope you beat the bills (us) with no qb, that 11th guy sitting on the bench, the hood (thats what I call him) at home watching on TV and the rest of the staff on vacation for the week with the other 10 guys being the best 10 off your practice squad.... that should resolve "the problem" in buffalo

 

[RobertWeathers]

I actually think they wlll beat arizona this week . Cards lose these type of games , on the road,1pm start for a west coast team.
Rex's defense will be a bigger challenge for us with all the blitzing and stuff than what romeo did on a short week. Plus division game.
I think one of jimmy or jacoby will play.

Ok but the are allowing 25ppg and 400+ yards a game.

They suck.

 

[Wordsmyth]

Rex will run his mouth making sure this won't be a trap game.

You mean sticking his FOOT in his mouth.

 

[Wordsmyth]

Ha! Was waiting for it.

 

[luuked]

There's no such thing as a trap game. Trap game is a false correlation that players use to describe the reason for a loss, despite that they often exhibit the same loose or overconfident behavior in games where they win. The idea of a trap game also makes the false assumption that NFL players share a collective consciousness.

Statisticians and oddsmakers do not adjust point spreads based on whether or not they think there will be a
"trap game" because the variation of statistics accounts for favorites losing to underdogs. If you go back and look at some of the "trap games" the Patriots have lost over the years, you'll note that their winning percentage against bad opponents is about as expected, or even better than expected, but the fact that no team can win 100% of the time makes us point to specific losses and falsely explain them as "trap games."

Turnovers and other key correlations like red zone offense and red zone defense often explain unlikely losses much better than "attitude" or "preparation", which is a constant in New England and if often a constant for all teams.

People and especially media just love their narratives. I'd argue the the concept of "momentum" is the same ********. Yes, I certainly get that players gain/lose confidence due to events in a game and it can make a significant impact on their individual performance but the way media portrays this is just asinine.

My favorite example was when we were playing the Eagles last year. We go up 14:0 and have "all the momentum" but the decision to try a dropkick that cost us maybe 10 yards took away all that momentum and gave it to the Eagles so they could mount a comeback. WTF ? Just two plays later we had them at 3rd & 10+ which by the "logic of momentum" should have given it back to us.

All those concepts are just lazy ways to put a game that is full with randomness, dozens of moving parts and important individual matchups into some kind of story without having to look in depth at what happened.

 

[long distance]

No way.
The winners of offseason are coming to town.

 

[PP2]

No way is this a trap game. They wouldn't dare screw up the next Hitler meme vid.

 

[Gronk]

I wouldn't call it a trap game, because that label is usually applied after the fact to games most feel should've went the other way, or as a stupid talking point for cable sports news. If the Pats lose, it doesn't automatically mean they were looking past the Bills.

The way I look at it they're playing with house money in this one before

 

[fxkane]

To me a trap game is one that follows a couple of highs or several highs.... Over- confidence leads to both underestimating the opponent and getting deflated when things aren't quite working out.

The QB situation could keep us in high gear and thus negate the trap, but I'd like to know just how that QB problems resolves itself. I have a sense we're going to bring in an outsider (unfortunately in terms of the roster) and then the trap game would be out and the stranger than strange game wd be in.

 

[fightingirish595]

This game has all the markings of a total trap game. I honestly think Rex Ryan will pull out all the stops as he has a very good chance of being fired if his 0-3 Bills come into Gillette and lose to a backup, or 3rd string QB on a division opponent.

The Bills are going to lose to AZ this weekend, that's a given...but Do any of you feel this is a trap game?

no such thing as a trap game in the nfl

 

[meatface]

no such thing as a trap game in the nfl

Do you remember that jaguars game a few years ago in Jacksonville, that game to me was one.

 

[meatface]

I think the game plan for tyrod will be similar to what it was for brock, the bills previous OC liked the big plays and Taylor had a few last week. Brock is also a fan of the big play and he can't really play the mid range pass game. But while Tyrod Taylor basically doesn't have a Wr at this point he has been better than Brock so far this year

Sent from my KFSOWI using Tapatalk

 

[supafly]

The Bills are going to lose to AZ this weekend, that's a given...but Do any of you feel this is a trap game?

I'm not sure that I'd call a west coast team (until the time change halfway through the season) traveling to the east coast "a given," especially with a low 4 point spread, but I'd agree that ARZ looks like it should win.

That said, I'm very leery of betting this so called "obvious" game, even with the stark difference in talent and circumstance. According to BetLabs and their system, since 2005, when an ATS winner from a previous week is coming west to east, they are only covering about 29% of the time. The number gradually gets lower the further they move across the country, which is why it's so low by the time they get east. It's not quite as dramatic for a west coast team (coming off an ATS cover) who is traveling to say, the mountain time zone (38%), but it's still not good.

If you're considering ARZ, it may be a good idea to buy yourself a full point and take it down from -4 to -3, just in case they eek out a late victory via FG, or BUF scores a garbage time TD down 10. Another important unknown variable would be the changing of OCs. A scaled down playbook may help/hinder Tyrod Taylor. Finally, there's the question of how much Watkins may play. Of course, all of this analysis may be pointless if you simply believe that the Bills just suck.

 

[supafly]

no such thing as a trap game in the nfl

I highly doubt there'd be any scenario where a Belichick coached team looked past a Rex Ryan or Rob Ryan coached team, let BOTH Ryan brothers together.

To take it one step further, most would have the definition of a "trap game" as a concern that their team was looking ahead, or coming off a big win and not focusing on the task at hand. With CLE coming up next, I'm just not seeing it here. If anything, one could argue that the CLE game may pose more of a threat as a trap game, if you believe in such things.

 

[DarrylS]

BB has 10 days to "hunker in the bunker" and prepare for the Bills.. Rex has 7 days to spout idiotic comments.

And the winner will be??

Patriots are 77-0 when leading at halftime at home.. that is incredible.