Miami @ Patriots: Keys to the game

[DaBruinz]

Miami is coming to Foxboro. Miami lost their opener while the Pats won in Arizona. Both teams are a bit banged up.

Nate Solder & Marcus Cannon: Solder missed the opening game and Cannon got hurt, but played through it. Cannon played well until he got hurt and his play dropped off. The Phins have 2 tremendous DEs in Mario Williams and Cameron Wake who will be a handful no matter who is out there. A lot of the offensive game plan will depend on whether Solder and Cannon are good to go. If the Pats have to go in missing both, it could be a very long game.

Thuney, Andrews, Karras, Cooper, Mason - These 5 guys, provided that Cooper actually dresses, will be responsible for controlling Suh. Controlling Suh will make the running game that much better and help alleviate the pressure on the OTs.

Mingo and Freeny - With the likelihood that Hightower is out because of a knee injury because he's not practiced all week, these two will have to step up, particularly against the run. Collins can't do it all on his own and Foster is still a good RB. The Pats need to take away Foster and force Tannehill to beat them with his arm. They will also have to maintain discipline to ensure that Tannehill doesn't take off running, which he is very capable of toding..

Ryan, Coleman, Jones, and Jones - Butler's ankle is hurting. Rowe is on crutches. Rowe didn't play the first game, so they won't miss much there. However, a lot of pressure could be put on Jonathan Jones if he starts in place of Butler. I say J. Jones starting because I don't believe Coleman is good enough to match up on the outside consistently. Kenny Stills, Devante Parker, and Jarvis Landry are a diverse set of WR. Add the enigmatic speedster, Justin Hunter, and the Dolphins have the ability to beat you deep. So the DBs will have to cover long enough for the Line and LBers to get to Tannehill.

Special Teams - With the new kick rule providing for more returns, the Patriots are going to have to be weary of Jakeem Grant. I'm not sure if his 65 yards on 2 returns is because of a breakdown of the opposing teams coverage unit or the kid is that good. Either way, lane discipline is going to be paramount..

Division games are always the toughest as the other team always gives it their best. That is doubly so for the Phins trying to knock off the Patriots.

 

[IllegalContact]

the seahawks played in a nickel for most of the game and the dolphins still could only manage 3.0ypc rushing ..... tannehill attempted 29 passes and he was sacked 5 times....If the Pats D can get to tannehill, this game will be a blowout

as for the dolphins defense, I don't think their DL is any better than it was last year. Suh is tough, but outside of his stomping of opponents, doesn't bring much to the table that calais campbell could bring last week.

the dolphins LB's are a liability, and I think the same approach in the running game stands to bring a better result than last week.

 

[Ring 6]

Division games are always the toughest as the other team always gives it their best. That is doubly so for the Phins trying to knock off the Patriots.

Interesting stat I found today.
Last 5 years:
Patriots vs AFCE: 23-7 (76.6%)
Vs Everyone else 38-12 (76%)

So its really not a case where division games are tougher.

By the way, the only home loss to a division opponent in that timeframe was the last game of 2014 when the starters sat. Before that was the 2010 playoff loss, before that, Matt Cassell was the QB.

 

[Flash]

It's really on how the offense plays against that D-line. No one should be scared about Tannehill at this point and their offense is beatable given our talents at defense. If O-line steps up, we win. O-line gets shredded, we might win, but it's just as likely that we lose.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Interesting stat I found today.
Last 5 years:
Patriots vs AFCE: 23-7 (76.6%)
Vs Everyone else 38-12 (76%)

So its really not a case where division games are tougher.

By the way, the only home loss to a division opponent in that timeframe was the last game of 2014 when the starters sat. Before that was the 2010 playoff loss, before that, Matt Cassell was the QB.

Interesting. Do the reports mention the margin of victory? Maybe it's just my perception since I get more worked up for division games, but I seem to recall more nail-biters. Perhaps that's why we always talk about "tough" division games, even if we still win in the end.

 

[Ring 6]

Interesting. Do the reports mention the margin of victory? Maybe it's just my perception since I get more worked up for division games, but I seem to recall more nail-biters. Perhaps that's why we always talk about "tough" division games, even if we still win in the end.

Go to profootballreference
You can get all kinds of info including head to head game by game histories against each team

 

[NewFeep]

the Pats need to score 1 more point than Miami....... 10-9 would be great

 

[doesntmatter1]

With or without Brady, I expected the Dolphins to be one of our toughest opponents. Their d kept us in check last year with sure tackling. They kept our yac to very modest gains. Their linebackers covered better than I expected and #20 Rashad Jones is awesome. If Jimmy has a good game this Sunday, then I will be thoroughly impressed.

 

[PScottman]

With or without Brady, I expected the Dolphins to be one of our toughest opponents. Their d kept us in check last year with sure tackling. They kept our yac to very modest gains. Their linebackers covered better than I expected and #20 Rashad Jones is awesome. If Jimmy has a good game this Sunday, then I will be thoroughly impressed.

It's strength against weakness for both teams. Their DL vs our OL and our WRs vs their CBs. Given the structure of the league and how the game is currently played, I'm mildly optimistic that the latter one wins out.

 

[willard]

Our advantage on offence is Josh McDaniels. He is very good and has been working with the same players, same system for a while. This lets him get the most out of it. Since the offence sets the stage he will take full advantage of play calling to help the Patriots win. We saw that in Phoenix and I expect to see it tomorrow against Miami.

Win the turn over battle and we will likely win the game. This has been a big point of emphasis through Bill's tenure with the Patriots. I expect us to lead in takeaways.

Special teams will come up big again. The difference in Phoenix literally was we could make field goals and they missed. Our kickoff coverage was great.

No injuries to OL especially the tackles. We are thin there.

 

[IllegalContact]

Interesting stat I found today.
Last 5 years:
Patriots vs AFCE: 23-7 (76.6%)
Vs Everyone else 38-12 (76%)

So its really not a case where division games are tougher.

By the way, the only home loss to a division opponent in that timeframe was the last game of 2014 when the starters sat. Before that was the 2010 playoff loss, before that, Matt Cassell was the QB.

You know the records against the spread?

 

[Ring 6]

With or without Brady, I expected the Dolphins to be one of our toughest opponents. Their d kept us in check last year with sure tackling. They kept our yac to very modest gains. Their linebackers covered better than I expected and #20 Rashad Jones is awesome. If Jimmy has a good game this Sunday, then I will be thoroughly impressed.

Huh?
In the first game we put up 36 points blew them out and Brady was 26-38-346 and 4 TDS.
In the second game we ran the ball on something like 25 of the first 29 snaps on a day when belichick lost his mind and didn't try to win with homefield in the line.

 

[Uptown]

I'll take our coaching staff vs MIA's any day..especially at home...opening day...

But aside from that...I feel like all of our division games come down to winning the trenches..

 

[Ring 6]

You know the records against the spread?

Nope

 

[Bobs My Uncle]

Key for the Pats on offense will be for the receivers to get open quickly and for Jimmy to use his quick release and get them the ball before the Miami DL gets to him.

Key for the Pats on defense is to just play their game without any mistakes and giving up big plays.

 

[nabwong]

I think the dolphins' D tend to over pursue and that agression can be used against them with draws and screens. I also think that using misdirection is crucial with Bennett and Devlin being the important pieces in executing wham blocks. Lastly, if we can get white and Edelman in space, I think the dolphins tackling isn't that great.

 

[patfanken]

FINALLY a football discussion:

1. As it has been from the time we started talking about this season seriously in July, this game is going to be all about the Pats OL. And based on the injury report your guess is a good as mine as to who is going to be out there come Sunday. Tuney and Andrews are the only 2 I'd make book on. Solder, Cooper, Cannon, Flemming, Karras, Mason etc could all be in the mix......or not. Picking who is going to be starting on the OL might be harder than picking the final score in this game. ';

2. The situation COULD be better if Solder and Cannon and one of Mason/Cooper are ready to line up, though I still can't see Cooper being ready with this little work since July. So the bottom line here is, can whatever OL Dante manages to put together, keep Jimmy as least as clean as the did against the Cardinals.

3. Interesting that the Jets and Miami have what may be the best DL's the Pats face all year. Which is NOT a great thing to face when our OL is in such a state of flux.

4. With the Texans coming up on Thursday, I don't see Gronk being out there at anything less than 100%. If you've ever had one you know, that hamstring pulls are lingering injuries. He's already had one set back, so even though reports have him improving, It really makes sense to give him those extra 5 days to fully recover.

5. The Pats will face some issues on Defense as well. People are constantly dismissing Tannyhill as being a joke, but he's won some big games with some big numbers including 350+ against the Pats in week 17 last season. So while he's been wildly inconsistent, that doesn't mean he can't play a great game on a given Sunday.

6. And then there is the problem he presents as a runner. In last season's game he gashed us with several runs that resulted in first downs, so expect the "be under control" contain pass rush today

7. Hightower's injury hurts mostly because he's the brains of the defense as well as the brawn. However it will be interesting to see Mingo and McClellan get his snaps. Lots of people expect Freeney to get most of them, but I'd rather not. I've already seen what Freeney can give us, and I think bother Mingo and McClellen have better upside.

8. My biggest fear in this game comes from my years of experience in football. The fact is that while experience and increased snaps will always increase a player's consistency; progression of a players ability is never as straight line thing, especially early on. And this doesn't just describe JG, there were a LOT of young players out there last week.

So while my confidence in JG's ability to play the game was greatly enhanced with last week's performance, that doesn't mean he won't improve today, or even play as well. As I've said before progression in football is more of a "2 steps forward and one step back" kind of thing.

9. Going back to the OL: If I were a DC I would make sure I had a man over David Andrew's head or just off set all game. I wouldn't give him a break of playing against a straight 4-3 look much. I know he's stronger this year, but he's still basically the same undersized, (relatively) non-athletic guy who didn't get drafted. So if I had a great DL, I'd make him and whomever is playing the RG position my pivot points to attack. Lets see if the Miami DC agrees.

10. I think the Pats are going to continue to try and be more balanced in the run game, but I wouldn't be surprise to see the Pats do it from more varied formations today. BB has never been one to bang his head against the wall just to prove a point.

11. I'm hoping to see Bennett down the field more today

12. This is likely to be a close game well into the 4th quarter. A game where the team who is the most mentally disciplined and mentally tougher will win.