UDFAs beat 1st+2nd rounders

[Ring 6]

With his strong reputation now for scouting and coaching up cornerbacks, it's puzzling that he drafted Chris Canty in the first round when he was here in New England

More puzzling that he drafted Tebucky Jones and tried to turn him into a press corner. Particularly when he made the comment after the draft that his future here could depend on that pick.

 

[IllegalContact]

More puzzling that he drafted Tebucky Jones and tried to turn him into a press corner. Particularly when he made the comment after the draft that his future here could depend on that pick.

those were the days........with Bob Kraft standing on the field with a stopwatch

 

[TheFlyingWedge]

I don't know how useful that would be actually. I mean, the two really shouldn't be compared at all.

One is a limited asset while the other isn't. One is a considerable investment while the other is a numbers game.

Both are valuable for different reasons.

I don't think Schefter is claiming UDFAs are as valuable as top picks. I think it was meant as an acknowledgement that UDFAs are valuable in their own way, something that often gets overlooked by casual fans with a "Who cares?" mentality after the first few days of the draft are over.

Agreed that both stats are interesting. However, the tweet 'implies' that Undrafted rookies have a good chance or that there is hope for them to become starters, "Hope for underdogs:..." based on the total number of Undrafted Rookies compared to 1st and 2nd rounders. In actuality, 1st and 2nd rounders have a much better chance of becoming starters. Its a classic case of (mis)using statistics to make a point.

 

[long distance]

Now that everybody's eyes (and hearts) are with UDFAs BB has reversed the tide a bit;
I know its a silly way to look at it but why not - this is the grand FU tour after all. So lets recap:

NFL proxy takes 1st 2016 draft pick away from BB (we'll let the 4th 2018 slide for the moment)

BB takes on his redraft (or iDraft) tour and instead of stolen 1-29nd acquires:
1-2 (Long)
1-6 (Mingo)
1-7 (Cooper)
1-19 (McClellin)
1-27 (Brown)
2-47 (Rowe)
2-54 (Sankey)
2-61 (Bennett)
+
2-61 2016 (from AZ turned into 3-78 (Thuney) and 4-112 (Mitchell)

and gives in exchange
1-21 (C Jones)
4th 2018
5th 2017

thats a nice little bouquet to present to RG in exchange for Lombardi

 

[GodBrady]

Agreed. What's the percent of the total number of 1st and 2nd rounders who become starters compared to the percent of the total number of UFA's who become starters? That would be a more useful statistic and its probably not that close.

I don't completely agree with that methodology, but I do agree with your general point.

According to Schefter's statistic, there are 481 UDFA on NFL rosters. How many of them are starters? There are 480 1st/2nd round picks on rosters. How many of those are starters? How many Pro Bowls have each of those sets combined for? That's more meaningful I think.

My gut tells me that 1st/2nd round picks are much more likely to be impact players. UDFA players can often carve out a niche role -- like a gunner on special teams, let's say, but you're probably not going to find many starting skill position players that way. It happens -- Arian Foster, for example -- but it seems uncommon.

I'd be curious to see stats like that. Maybe the perceptions I have are completely wrong and unfounded. Anyway, all of this is kind of a moot point. Like convertedpatsfan mentioned, I don't think Schefter was trying to insinuate UDFA's are just as valuable as 1st/2nd round picks; he's just saying that they make rosters more often than we'd intuitively believe.

EDIT: Wedge, as I read your post a second time, I feel like I agree with you more than I originally did. I think I misunderstood some of the points you made.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Agreed that both stats are interesting. However, the tweet 'implies' that Undrafted rookies have a good chance or that there is hope for them to become starters, "Hope for underdogs:..." based on the total number of Undrafted Rookies compared to 1st and 2nd rounders. In actuality, 1st and 2nd rounders have a much better chance of becoming starters. Its a classic case of (mis)using statistics to make a point.

I re-read Schefter's tweet and there's no mention anywhere of starters, just roster spots, so I think that implication wasn't Schefter's.

I certainly do agree that 1st/2nd rounders have a much better chance of becoming a starter, but I'd also argue that finding an UDFA as a starter has a considerable amount of value, perhaps just as much as hitting on a high draft choice, because of the cap savings.

Consider a 1st-round CB like Artie Burns working out. It costs you a high draft pick and if it works out, you're paying over $9M for 4 years, over $7M guaranteed. A 2nd-round pick like Cyrus Jones is considerably less, say 4 years for $4M ($1.5M guaranteed). But an UDFA like Malcolm Butler is 3 years, $1.5M with no guarantees. So there's less risk, less guaranteed money, and less overall money. It's also harder to find a guy who can start, but when you do, it's an incredibly valuable find and extremely helpful for your team's cap situation.

And sure, it's not easy to find UDFA starters, and you can't expect to do it consistently every year, but there's considerable value when you do.