I called the Seattle blowout two years ago due to the matchups; I thought that was the worst possible matchup for that Denver team on both sides of the ball and it was.
I have a sneaking suspicion that Denver figures out a way to win this game.
I just don't trust Newton or Carolina like I did Wilson and Seattle in 2013. Wilson can beat you from the pocket; I have doubts that Newton can be forced into the pocket, throw the ball 40 times, and not have multiple mistakes/turnovers. On the other side of the ball, Manning will do the same thing he did against us, which is study tons of film, realize that 80% of his game will managing the offense and ball control-oriented, while he just needs to find a few small weaknesses to attack when needed. If Carolina were to jump out to a lead, all bets are off, but I think Denver's defense will put them out of their comfort zone the same way they did to us.
From a poetic justice side, it would be nice to see Denver lose a heartbreaker, considering all of the heartbreakers they've handed out this season, and having Manning really feel what it's like to lose a SB when he's put the team in position to win. His Super Bowl losses are not the same as Brady's Super Bowl losses. Manning failed the team in crunch time. Brady came through in crunch time, even if it turned out to be too little in the end. Bottom line is, Brady is a fighter, and really scrappy guy who is NEVER out, and that is the reason I've always preferred him to Manning.
I'm sure my pick will change leading up to the game, but my initial one is Broncos 20, Panthers 17. Although the score is similar to yesterday, I don't think they'll dominate Newton as much as they did with Brady, but they'll get some negative plays to kill drives. At some critical point, they'll need Manning to throw the ball and win the game for them, so I have no idea why I'm picking Manning to do that in the Super Bowl...but I just feel like it's their year. They have won plenty of games where they weren't the best team, but they've figured out how to put more points on the board than the other team.