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Idle thoughts - the "dog days" edition

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(1) Penalty was on Martin, not White.
(2) Regardless of what Martin did or didn't do with his arms, he did it within one yard of the LOS. By rule, there is no such thing as PI (OPI or DPI) within one yard of the LOS. That's the bigger officiating screwup on the play.
Yes, that call was complete BS. He put a hand on the guy then let go, all at the line of scrimmage. The boos were long and loud at the stadium when they showed it on replay.
 
Here's a suggestion. IIRC, if the Pats win just one of their last 2 games, they will grab the #1 seed and home field all through the playoffs. So why not treat the Jet game as the "rest" game. Sit everyone with minor dings and then bring them all back for a "shake off the rust game" (or half) in Miami for week 17 before we get another week off. Lets concede this game and throw up in our mouths for the ultimate good of a run for a ring. Just a thought.

I think BB may use the 3 weeks = 2 bye weeks plan, to rotate select players who are hurting in the non-active slots for weeks 16-17 and then with the bye they each had two weeks off. You could even view the Stork nonactive as early implementation of that.
 
I think BB may use the 3 weeks = 2 bye weeks plan, to rotate select players who are hurting in the non-active slots for weeks 16-17 and then with the bye they each had two weeks off. You could even view the Stork nonactive as early implementation of that.

If the Jets get a wild card berth, KC or Pitt/Cincy doesn't. Is that a good tradeoff for us?
 
One sneaky "benefit" if the Pats lose to the Jets: it can be tough to beat a divisional foe 3 times in one season. Since they might play again, a million times better to lose this game than in the playoffs.

EDIT: Wait a minute, Jets can't make the playoffs if we beat 'em, right? So that last point is meaningless.

Certainly not meaning to nitpick, because I've thought the same before in the past in regards to the difficulty of beating a divisional foe 3x in the same season. The stats, however, back up the opposite--just for what it's worth to you. I was rather surprised myself. This article was from a few years ago, so I'm not sure about any updated numbers for teams who had won both games in the regular season since then.

Beating a Team Three Times in One Season Is Easier Done Than Said
 
If the Jets get a wild card berth, KC or Pitt/Cincy doesn't. Is that a good tradeoff for us?

Probably, but keep in mind that even if the NYJ win out, Pittsburgh still has to lose to one of BAL/CLE, so good luck with that scenario. I think Pittsburgh pretty much solidified their spot in the postseason with a win vs. DEN on Sunday, even though it's not "official."

As much as everyone around here assumes that Dalton won't be coming back, there's a decent chance that a broken thumb can heal just fine (or well enough to play in the postseason) with a month or so of rest, so I'm still seeing the Bengals as something of a competitor once the playoffs start up.

I've already stated my thoughts on wanting Pittsburgh to go to hell, so I won't bore anyone with that again.
 
Anybody who thinks we should take it easy against the Jets and then get serious against the Dolphins is off their rocker. Why would we mail in the game against the Jets thinking that we absolutely beat the Dolphins on the road? Did you forget Miami is a blackhole for Tom Brady for some reason? It's dead obvious we should give it our all against the Jets and rest against Miami if we beat the Jets. If we lose to the Jets, then the team needs to be even more focused going into Miami.

While your logic is definitely solid, the concern is that we'll be missing Amendola and Edelman on offense.

I definitely agree with you that we'll be playing to win the game on Sunday, no doubt about that one. Unfortunately, we'll probably have to do it in a creative way, at least offensively. Let's hope our defense comes to play, and that the running game can get going.
 
Iosefa and Boldin both averaged a solid 3.6 ypc Sunday and you know what... that is just FINE. We ran the ball 25 times and only lost yardage 2 times IIRC. With our offense things become much harder when we have to throw the ball more than 6 or 7 yards. Inside 7 yards is in our comfort zone. More plays, more options, just more likely that we will convert. Well this week the running game provided that kind of comfort level for most of the game. 3.6-8 is more than good enough to compliment this passing offense. It was good enough in 2001 and 2003 and it will be good enough now, as long as it is consistent in getting those hard yards in Short yardage situations.

Here is a rare occasion where I respectfully disagree a bit, Ken. While I certainly understand the underlying point about needing "just enough" in the running game, let's look at your examples of 2001 and 2003, just to put things in perspective:

1) 2001---Antwain Smith---almost 1200 yards rushing + 13 total touchdowns. He had a 4.0 average yards per carry and caught another 19 balls out of the backfield, so our 2001 version of an adequate RB is MUCH better than anything we've come close to seeing this year. Let's not short change 2001 Antwain Smith. While maybe "unspectacular," his 1200 yards and 13 touchdowns certainly got it done. Hell, people were excited about Ridley a few seasons ago for putting up almost identical numbers, so we can't fairly go back and say that Smith wasn't effective for doing the exact same thing.

2) One thing comes to mind when looking at the 2001 postseason run, and that's turnovers. We turned the ball over ONCE the entire postseason stretch, and brought in a total of SEVEN from the opposition. This point is driven home even more by the fact that we won the turnover battle in the AFCCG 4-0 (and barely won), and also won the turnover battle in the SB 3-0 (and barely won). Those are two clutch performances by the defense and ST in the two biggest games of the year, so that needs to be taken into account when looking at what you may deem as mediocre rushing performance--offensively.

3) The 2001 defense was giving up 17.0 points per game, and held the opposition to 17 points or less in 11/12 last games. That's an insane stretch, with insane numbers. They secured more INTs (20), than they allowed touchdowns (18). That is certainly big, and if you're impressed by that stat just wait for the next one.

4) The 2003 defense gave up 14.9 points per game, which is simply amazing. This is the stat that always drives home just how exceptional that year's defense was, and I'm not sure that it can ever be replicated: Once again, the defense secured more INTs (29!!!), than touchdowns allowed (11!!!). This obviously helped to overshadow the poor offensive rushing attack, but I'm not sure that we can count on anything like this happening again.

-------------

So, to recap, Antwain Smith had a much better season in 2001 than you're giving credit to, and the 2003 defense was so smothering (as was 2001, holding the opposition to 17 or less in 11/12 last games) that it helped to overshadow the poor rushing averages seen from 2003 Faulk/Smith (3.6 and 3.5). While I realize that our current 2015 defense is good, if not very good, I think we'll still need to beef up that average yards per rush to something in the 4.1--4.3 range to have an acceptable rushing attack. 3.5 or 3.6 YPC is not likely to get the job done in this specific situation.
 
If the Jets get a wild card berth, KC or Pitt/Cincy doesn't. Is that a good tradeoff for us?
I think more important is to keep that go-for-the-kill mentality going. Rather than try to game who the possible opponents are. But point taken.

You might have misinderstood, i was opposing kens offered strategy, but not ao forthright as you.

Another reason to use "my" approach (one BB has used before) as opposed to kens. Resting select guys doesnt mean you are forfeiting or not trying to win.
 
A casual observation is despite all the rhetoric it seems like human nature to play to the level of competition, consider the Philly and Tenn game they did not play well either that or the other team played better than usual.

This is not as noticeable as in previous season.. but this season has ground on and maybe the coaching staff is not as intense/prepared as they usually are.. if Tennessee has won last Sunday's game would that have been considered a successful season for that team that has been rebuilding forever??
 
Certainly not meaning to nitpick, because I've thought the same before in the past in regards to the difficulty of beating a divisional foe 3x in the same season. The stats, however, back up the opposite--just for what it's worth to you. I was rather surprised myself. This article was from a few years ago, so I'm not sure about any updated numbers for teams who had won both games in the regular season since then.

Beating a Team Three Times in One Season Is Easier Done Than Said
Interesting, although if you think about it, the stat there doesn't really disprove the idea. Teams that won twice during the regular season were 12-7 in the playoffs. That's a small sample, of course (no surprise it doesn't happen that often), but even within that it shows the level of difficulty.

You'd think the team that won twice should win again pretty handily, but if just a couple of those games go the other way, it's pretty much an even split. So I think "easier said than done" in the heading is a little misleading.
 
4) The 2003 defense gave up 14.9 points per game, which is simply amazing. This is the stat that always drives home just how exceptional that year's defense was, and I'm not sure that it can ever be replicated: Once again, the defense secured more INTs (29!!!), than touchdowns allowed (11!!!).

The Pats only gave up 11 offensive touchdowns in 2003? Holy moly.

EDIT: Is it moly or moley?
 
BTW- people who keep on crapping on Blount seem to forget his 4.5 ypc average, and was obtained DESPITE having an OL that hasn't been on the same page all year. IMHO Blount was getting a raw deal by the media and fans who didn't think he was "doing his job". The facts tell us a different story. He will be missed more than the mediots will give him credit for

6. Iosefa and Boldin both averaged a solid 3.6 ypc Sunday and you know what... that is just FINE. We ran the ball 25 times and only lost yardage 2 times IIRC. With our offense things become much harder when we have to throw the ball more than 6 or 7 yards. Inside 7 yards is in our comfort zone. More plays, more options, just more likely that we will convert. Well this week the running game provided that kind of comfort level for most of the game. 3.6-8 is more than good enough to compliment this passing offense. It was good enough in 2001 and 2003 and it will be good enough now, as long as it is consistent in getting those hard yards in Short yardage situations.

If Jackson can give the Pats 90% on Blount in the running game, and 25% of Lewis in the passing game, I think he is a huge pickup for the Pats at this point.

(1) Penalty was on Martin, not White.
(2) Regardless of what Martin did or didn't do with his arms, he did it within one yard of the LOS. By rule, there is no such thing as PI (OPI or DPI) within one yard of the LOS. That's the bigger officiating screwup on the play.

This was so aggravating last night watching the MNF game. Megatron was an easy three yards downfield blocking during the catch and a flag was thrown. Flag gets picked up, with the ref saying he was within a yard of the LOS. Announcers then say the refs will give you about 2 yards. Except if it's a Patriots player, apparently.
 
Anybody who thinks we should take it easy against the Jets and then get serious against the Dolphins is off their rocker. Why would we mail in the game against the Jets thinking that we absolutely beat the Dolphins on the road? Did you forget Miami is a blackhole for Tom Brady for some reason? It's dead obvious we should give it our all against the Jets and rest against Miami if we beat the Jets. If we lose to the Jets, then the team needs to be even more focused going into Miami.

Agreed. It's a bit early for the victory formation.
 
If the Jets get a wild card berth, KC or Pitt/Cincy doesn't. Is that a good tradeoff for us?

If the jets were playing anyone else, we would want them to WIN and make it into the playoffs. As you say that's better than having PITT, KC or CIN in the playoffs instead.
 
Some comments on the comments (and another "idle thought")

1. I noticed that Mariotta is done for the season with a knee sprain he got when Collins sacked him. If you noticed he got that strain when Collins almost over ran him and Mariotta leaned INTO his rush, increasing the torque on his knees. I couldn't help but remember Brady once commenting that in the off season he actually works on "going with the flow" when he's hit. He actually does drills so he instinctively relaxes his body when he's being hit, reducing the chances of injuries. Perhaps if Mariotta had done this, he wouldn't have been hurt.

At any rate is seems like a just another example of Tom Brady going the extra mile to keep an edge on the rest of the league, even as he enters his athletic dotage. Just one more small detail. But when you string them all together you can see the results on the field.

2. I want to make clear I never said we should concede the game vs the Jets. You ALWAYS try to win. The issue here is who are the players you are trying to win with. I was just offering a thought that it might be better to rest players this week, than do it next. I don't necessarily thing its the best idea, but rather offer it as a discussion point.

3. Sup, I enjoyed your trip down memory lane and all the stats that went with it. I will offer one point that puts some of those stats in prospective. The game has vastly changed since 2003, and scoring and TDs rising significantly over the last decade plus. We would be hard pressed to believe that even the best defenses of today could match what that 2003 defense did. It is just too hard to keep teams from scoring.

4. My favorite recent defensive stat that might take a long time to match is this one. Last season, over the last 10 games (including the 3 playoff games, against the best competition), the Patriots defense did not allow a single TD in the 4th quarter of any game. THAT I think was a great accomplishment, given today's offensive climate

5. BTW- here is another amazing stat from that 2003 team that I hold dear. If you include the playoffs, in that season the Pats won TEN games against teams that had won at least 10 games during that season. Think about it. This season the Panthers might go 16-0 and have faced only 2 teams with winning record, let alone 10 wins.

That season the Pats not only won a championship, they had to face the iron more times than any other team has had to do. Think about that one.
 
What about Amendola? What about Chung? What about Gronk? What about Hightower.......AGAIN!

 
Here's a suggestion. IIRC, if the Pats win just one of their last 2 games, they will grab the #1 seed and home field all through the playoffs. So why not treat the Jet game as the "rest" game. Sit everyone with minor dings and then bring them all back for a "shake off the rust game" (or half) in Miami for week 17 before we get another week off. Lets concede this game and throw up in our mouths for the ultimate good of a run for a ring. Just a thought.

If we win on Sunday our Injuried Players get approximately Three weeks off they could use that.
 
The Pats only gave up 11 offensive touchdowns in 2003? Holy moly.

EDIT: Is it moly or moley?

Well, via the air. I was speaking purely of the secondary.

29 picks vs 11 touchdowns.

Edit: They allowed a total of 21, as 10 more came on the ground.
 
Interesting, although if you think about it, the stat there doesn't really disprove the idea. Teams that won twice during the regular season were 12-7 in the playoffs. That's a small sample, of course (no surprise it doesn't happen that often), but even within that it shows the level of difficulty.

You'd think the team that won twice should win again pretty handily, but if just a couple of those games go the other way, it's pretty much an even split. So I think "easier said than done" in the heading is a little misleading.

I'd agree.

If 2 of those games go the other way, you're now looking at 10-9 instead of 12-7. I'd like to see a larger sample size, as you noted.
 
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