IND's extra rest and why I wouldn't bet blowout

[Nikolai]

I want to beat them so bad that the league is forced to intact a new mercy rule Monday morning.

So bad that children in Bhutan are crying and Halley's Comet says "**** that" and never comes back; so bad that a portal for time travel opens, allowing that guy that escorts BB after games to go back in time and take care of a few things.

 

[YOUGOTMOSSED]

I hate back to back road games. I hate Indy having extra rest. I REALLY hate how everyone is predicted a blowout and betting accordingly. I hate how the NFL has achieved Boss Tweed/Tammany Hall levels of corruption.

Despite all this, my analysis, which may be overly simplistic, is that the Colts aren't very good. Patriots should win.

 

[mosi]

I want the Pats to win this game 100-0 just like in 2007 against the Jets. That was the second worst game of the 2007 season. The Jets knew everyone there wanted them to be embarrassed. And they did not want to be embarrassed. The colts players are professionals. This could be there Super Bowl.

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

I hope dobson plays. At least the dolts have to respect the speed lol.

 

[Tony2046]

Is there any evidence that teams play better coming off a Thursday game than they do otherwise?

Good question. Found this interesting.

Massey-Peabody Analytics | Teams do better after byes and Thursdays, so... - Massey-Peabody Analytics

Beginning this week we are adding a couple of adjustments to our game predictions. Digging through historical performance we find that teams perform better in the week after a Thursday night game, and after a bye. In both cases, the effect is about 2 points. That is, teams coming off bye weeks or Thursday games outperform the predictions implied by our rankings by about 2 points. These considerations are beyond the scope of our Power Rankings, so to use them we need to adjust our game predictions explicitly.

 

[Tony2046]

Joker - I know your hatred of Goodell runs deep, but you really should do some research before going off on everything that Goodell does and blasting him for it. The Assistant Ref that was pulled from Corrente's crew happened to be the one that screwed up the batted ball call in the Seattle/Detroit game..

Report: Referee Who Blew Batted Ball Call Taken Off Patriots-Colts Game

Now, maybe you're right. Maybe Goodell put a "Fixer" on the crew. But what proof do you have that they did anything other than replace an official that was mired in controversy?

I don't know. Isn't Goodell being Goodell proof enough? Why does Joker need proof to take a dump on a total Sh*t bag anyways? Goodell earned his scarlet letter so whatever he does should be deservedly scrutinized.

 

[Tony2046]

This game has blowout written all over it. If the Jags game wasn't a trap no game will be.

Colts defense is better than last year? Statistically yes but I'm pretty sure they schemed against the run and forced Fitzgerald to beat them with his arm. So I'm not sold on the defense is better notion yet.

Side Note: The Jets were only able to put up 20 points against a Colts team with 3 of their top 4 CB's injured. Yikes.

The Pats offense will shred this defense apart. The problem for the Colts is that 1 turnover or a couple of 3 and outs and the game is over. The Patriots defense will get enough pressure on Luck to make that happen.
If the Colts scheme against the run then the score will be 74- 31. If they scheme against the pass it will be 51- 17.

 

[hambone1818]

This game has blowout written all over it. If the Jags game wasn't a trap no game will be.

Colts defense is better than last year? Statistically yes but I'm pretty sure they schemed against the run and forced Fitzgerald to beat them with his arm. So I'm not sold on the defense is better notion yet.

Side Note: The Jets were only able to put up 20 points against a Colts team with 3 of their top 4 CB's injured. Yikes.

The Pats offense will shred this defense apart. The problem for the Colts is that 1 turnover or a couple of 3 and outs and the game is over. The Patriots defense will get enough pressure on Luck to make that happen.
If the Colts scheme against the run then the score will be 74- 31. If they scheme against the pass it will be 51- 17.

And their competition this season has been pretty awful...best offense they've faced is either Buffalo or NYJ. Gave up 33 to Tennessee, 27 to Buffalo. Their D isn't improved, they just haven't faced any upper-echelon offenses to date. Add to that, they only scored 14 on Buffalo (Pats scored 40) and 16 against Jax (Pats scored 51).

Honestly, they could rest for two months and it wouldn't matter, the Pats could travel to China and back in the interim and it wouldn't matter. The only way the score is within 3 TD's is if the Pats turn the ball over a bunch of times. Otherwise this is blowout city.

 

[Rob0729]

All the rest in the world won't change the fact they are an average, soft team.

Also, may teams have negative results after a long layoff. A lot of teams coming out of a bye or a long break come out really rusty and find themselves in a big hole before they get their feet back under them.

 

[1960Pats]

Fans being confident has absolutely zero to do with what happens on the field.

And I would disagree with that and say people were a lot more confident playing the Colts in the playoffs last year, the Colts in the playoffs the year before, Broncos in the divisional round in '11 and the Texans in the divisional round in '12 than they were the jets in '10, who actually had beat the Pats earlier that season by 14 in NY.

The funny thing is, if Luck was the Jets QB instead of Sanchez we might have been more confident.

 

[1960Pats]

The Indianassolis defense against the run is better this year. They dropped from giving up 113 yards a game last year to 112 so far this year. That's a whole yard per game better.

 

[Tony2046]

The Indianassolis defense against the run is better this year. They dropped from giving up 113 yards a game last year to 112 so far this year. That's a whole yard per game better.

You got me. My face went from to while reading your post.

 

[JMC00]

The Indianassolis defense against the run is better this year. They dropped from giving up 113 yards a game last year to 112 so far this year. That's a whole yard per game better.

And that's basically been because their pass defense hasn't been good this year, so people are throwing on them. They've given up on average 290 yards to Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Marcus Mariotta, Blake Bortles and Brian Hoyer.

 

[50-yard-line]

Watching the Pats is a familiar refrain...you see a bunch of early jostling and maybe (like last week) it looks like that Pats are overmatched, or flat, or OMG the other team in ON FIRE! "I can't believe they gave up 18 yards on teat sweep on first down!" "OMG, they let them get a 3rd and 8!!!!!!"

Then you look up in the 2nd quarter and the Pats are up 2 or 3 scores...and oh yeah, we get the ball first after halftime...

It's amazing.

 

[1960Pats]

And that's basically been because their pass defense hasn't been good this year, so people are throwing on them. They've given up on average 290 yards to Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Marcus Mariotta, Blake Bortles and Brian Hoyer.

Well, they've had extra time to prepare for this game, the preseason choice for best QB in the NFL has had extra time off to rest, the coaching staff has had more time to outsmart the Pats and the NYFL is trying to fix the game in Indy's favor. So, it could be close, but I doubt it.

 

[1960Pats]

Watching the Pats is a familiar refrain...you see a bunch of early jostling and maybe (like last week) it looks like that Pats are overmatched, or flat, or OMG the other team in ON FIRE! "I can't believe they gave up 18 yards on teat sweep on first down!" "OMG, they let them get a 3rd and 8!!!!!!"

Then you look up in the 2nd quarter and the Pats are up 2 or 3 scores...and oh yeah, we get the ball first after halftime...

It's amazing.

Their clock management is so good that no matter what happens they seem to end up with the ball at the end of the 1st half with a chance to score. That combined with having the ball to start the 2nd half due to deferring or the other team choosing to take the ball, and we've had some outstanding middles of games.

 

[1960Pats]

You got me. My face went from to while reading your post.

I was thinking of going over to an Indy board (if there is such a thing) to post that and see how long before they realized that it wasn't a compliment.

 

[Tony2046]

Their clock management is so good that no matter what happens they seem to end up with the ball at the end of the 1st half with a chance to score. That combined with having the ball to start the 2nd half due to deferring or the other team choosing to take the ball, and we've had some outstanding middles of games.

I think BB was the first coach I've seen that deferred the opening kick to the opposing team on a regular basis. Now I see it more often from other teams. It's amazing how he thinks through all the little details which add up to a win at the end of the game.

 

[Joker]

Joker - I know your hatred of Goodell runs deep, but you really should do some research before going off on everything that Goodell does and blasting him for it. The Assistant Ref that was pulled from Corrente's crew happened to be the one that screwed up the batted ball call in the Seattle/Detroit game..

Report: Referee Who Blew Batted Ball Call Taken Off Patriots-Colts Game

Now, maybe you're right. Maybe Goodell put a "Fixer" on the crew. But what proof do you have that they did anything other than replace an official that was mired in controversy?

I don't, DaB. I didn't before the Ravens/SF super bowl either, but after seeing what how that crew manipulated that game, along with that sudden power loss that gave the Ravens a much needed blow, I now prefer to think the worst until I see different.One thing I've learned is Goodell does nothing "just ordinary".

 

[mosslost]

Not hearing too much about this.

Against common wisdom, I think IND's mostly overlooked extra 3 day's rest will keep this game tighter than anticipated. ............

Patriots are going to destroy them