IND's extra rest and why I wouldn't bet blowout

[RelocatedPatFan]

I wonder if this injury just happened yesterday , I didn't hear about him being on the injured list all week!!

He could have gotten the injury trying to take a goodell?

Sorry for the low-brow humor, but you I have to go there every now and then .

 

[Oswlek]

Is there any evidence that teams play better coming off a Thursday game than they do otherwise?

 

[DaBruinz]

Goodell is trying his weasley best to fix this game. Yesterday he pulled an assistant ref in Corrente's crew and replaced him with one of his "fixers". Just like last week and Blakeman's ridiculous penalty calls in the 1st quarter. I am writing this and posting it so it will be here for posterity and hopefully, proof that fans KNEW this scumbag Goodell was a dirty corporate criminal engaged in federal crimes with seeming impunity.

Joker - I know your hatred of Goodell runs deep, but you really should do some research before going off on everything that Goodell does and blasting him for it. The Assistant Ref that was pulled from Corrente's crew happened to be the one that screwed up the batted ball call in the Seattle/Detroit game..

Report: Referee Who Blew Batted Ball Call Taken Off Patriots-Colts Game

Now, maybe you're right. Maybe Goodell put a "Fixer" on the crew. But what proof do you have that they did anything other than replace an official that was mired in controversy?

 

[DaBruinz]

I wonder if this injury just happened yesterday , I didn't hear about him being on the injured list all week!!

This injury happened on Thursday. He was limited in Practice on Friday. And back at full practice today..

 

[neuronet]

I'm not worried about the extra rest they got, more worried about our guys being too amped up, not relaxed. Like the Bills against us week 2.

 

[JMC00]

Is there any evidence that teams play better coming off a Thursday game than they do otherwise?

Well just going by this year for the Pats, they came out flat against the jills with the extra 3 days and then struggled in the 1st half against the cowgirls after an extra 7 days off.

 

[PatsWSB47]

In a weird way I'd like to see Indy up by 2 with 1 second left on the clock and Ghost is attempting a 60 yard field goal. It hits the upright and bounces in for the Patriot win. Not only would.the Colts hoist a banner for almost winning, they'd probably hand out Irsay autographed photos of the scoreboard showing them with the lead with 1 second to go at the rest of their home games.

 

[Oswlek]

Well just going by this year for the Pats, they came out flat against the jills with the extra 3 days and then struggled in the 1st half against the cowgirls after an extra 7 days off.

Denver's time off after a fluke Thursday win over KC to led to a difficult 24-12 win over a terrible Detroit team. KC fell behind 31-7 in Green Bay.

NYG played well against Buffalo after their Thursday win over Washington, but the Skins didn't look that impressive clawing out a 23-20 win over Philly.

Pitt played OK in SD after losing to Baltimore on Thursday, but Baltimore lost to Cleveland in OT, 33-30.

Very small sample size, but I'm not seeing much of a trend here. Pitt looked great with extra time coming off week 1, NY looked good against Buffalo, but everyone else played no better than they have at any other time during the season.

 

[Ring 6]

This isn't about betting per se, it's about expected and/or anticipated performance versus actual. This is more that the entire IND team (not just a receiver, a missing receiver, a QB or a DL or such), all 50+ players at about ~107% (just a guess, +3 days rest) effective compared to an average 7 day rest schedule, vs NE which will be about at ~98% (due to b2b travel). [These % numbers are just estimates for an example] Add another +10% for the home advantage. NE is hurt, lost LT, lost CB, a ginger MLB, so they get addl -5%. All positions that no one follows, not really factored into the line. IND QB situation, we all know about that. Motivation for both teams are equal if you think about it. IND also having 3 days extra to game-plan.

Put any equivalent strength rested Team A, and Team B in this situation, ignore any hype, which one has the advantage? But wait, now I say Team B, really, really.... really, I mean really wants to win this game, does that affect the underlying fundamentals?

So I think we see a stronger effort than expected by IND early. Once any initial "jump" dies out, you'll see both teams play closer to normal home vs. away NE vs IND levels. We will see.

Those factors could narrow the gap but the gap has been 20-30 point blowouts.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Good thread.
The spread this morning is nine.
Three of our four recent blowouts of the Colts and Luck have all been in Foxboro.
No way I see the Pats losing this game, but the Colts' record is generally to cover at Home, which they could do with the Pats still winning by two scores.
Betting the spread in an NFL game is a tough way to make money, as another recent thread pointed out, so I'm glad my only stake is my pride when I make my weekly prediction in Alamo's contest. I have no idea yet what I'm going to predict there.
None of that has anything to do with the extra days' rest.

EDIT: "three of our four" added to line three.

 

[JMC00]

Our recent blowouts of the Colts and Luck have all been in Foxboro.

eh.... Pats won 42-20 in Indianapolis last year.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I want Belichick to beat them in as straightforward a fashion as possible. As much as everyone wants a huge blowout I don't really care about it, I would rather see them beat them in as vanilla a game as possible. The likelihood of seeing the Colts in the playoffs is really strong and that is the game I want them to pay the Colts back with. If they run Blount 50 times and beat them by seven it's fine with me, but in January I want them to use every weapon and beat them 80-0. And when Brady gets up from taking the knee I want him to twist the ball and pop it and walk off. Take that assh0les. Then the Colts can raise this seasons participation banner.

 

[Froob]

I want to beat them so bad that the league is forced to intact a new mercy rule Monday morning.

 

[PATS16N0]

**** this thread.

Patriots scorch their Earth and salt their fields. Indy's women folk and children get dragged back in chains to work the iron mines. We leave no men alive.

 

[aluminum seats]

Gimme a win with no serious injuries and I'm happy. Same as every week.

Blowout would be gravy on the cake.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

eh.... Pats won 42-20 in Indianapolis last year.

my bad...thanks for the correction; edited to read "three of our four..."

 

[jah]

All I know is last time this board was so confident in guaranteeing a win, the 6 seed Jets (whom we had recently beaten 45-3) came in and smacked us down at Gillette.

 

[JMC00]

All I know is last time this board was so confident in guaranteeing a win, the 6 seed Jets (whom we had recently beaten 45-3) came in and smacked us down at Gillette.

Fans being confident has absolutely zero to do with what happens on the field.

And I would disagree with that and say people were a lot more confident playing the Colts in the playoffs last year, the Colts in the playoffs the year before, Broncos in the divisional round in '11 and the Texans in the divisional round in '12 than they were the jets in '10, who actually had beat the Pats earlier that season by 14 in NY.

 

[Rhodey]

Not hearing too much about this.

Against common wisdom, I think IND's mostly overlooked extra 3 day's rest will keep this game tighter than anticipated. Both from a pure physical restfulness and the mercurial game preparation standpoint it's a pretty big advantage for a team with extra days off in these situations. Also don't forget, IND gets that advantage on top of playing a back-to-back time zone travelling slightly banged up NE team as well.

When the schedule came out I thought this game might be tougher than the simplistic "Oh boy, chalk up a blowout! Pats gonna get even with these snitches and break some scoring records doing it!" mantra we kept hearing all off-season and until now. And a convenient scheduling quirk for IND, no? The conspiracy theorist in me thinks the NFL set it up on purpose, shuffling a few games around, just to give IND an added bit of extra help... but that could be a whole other topic.

Anyway, hope NE can overcome, cuz -I- sure as heck wanna see a blowout and put some stitches in those snitches. But if they struggle a bit early, this could very well be the reason.

But what does it all mean you ask? Simple really...

IT'S A TRAP!!!!
dummies.

(Also going to bet IND to cover -not win, calm down- and the under). First half at least.

Mods: Feel free to merge.

The Pats break appeared to have them coming out flat. Good thing they got it going. Of course, the Pats have a plan for keeping players fresh, unalike most teams. And their plan is not simply aimed at one single game. The Dolts will have their hands full against a team that got their game going, again, after their own break.

 

[Rhodey]

I wonder if this injury just happened yesterday , I didn't hear about him being on the injured list all week!!

Perhaps, it's more about keeping the Dolts guessing...as the Dolts attempt to keep the Pats guessing which QB will start/play?