Science: More probable than not that Colts added air to their footballs after Ref measured

[Ring 6]

The science, which actually, unless manipulated, actually proves the Patriots footballs were within expectations of the Ideal Gas Law, also shows that the Colts balls were overinflated.
Since Luck likes the ball near the higher end of the range, perhaps as a Stanford graduate, he understood the Ideal Gas Law and instructed his equipment manager to increase the psi in the Colts balls, since they would be dropping during the game. Why did he have a gauge on the field to measure the Intercepted ball?

 

[luuked]

Its more probable than not that Anderson never really checked the Colts ball, only gave them a squeeze test and they were around 13.5 PSI not 13.0

 

[ChoWZa]

Right the temperature of the colts balls were handed in lower, meaning less pressure drop because there was less adjusting to the outside weather, or it could have been tampering like you suggested. This whole thing really irks me.

 

[Ring 6]

Its more probable than not that Anderson never really checked the Colts ball, only gave them a squeeze test and they were around 13.5 PSI not 13.0

But there is as much if not more evidence that the Colts inflated their balls as there is that the Patriots deflated.
Think about it.
1) THEY brought up the issue.
2) Surely someone in their organization knows pressure drops in the cold.
3) They set the balls on the high end.
4) Their equipment manager has a psi gauge on the sidelines. Why?
5) Science says their balls did not lose as much pressure as they should. Something had to be done to them.

That is more than a few texts that you must interpret and call the texter a liar about what they meant.

 

[hambone1818]

The science, which actually, unless manipulated, actually proves the Patriots footballs were within expectations of the Ideal Gas Law, also shows that the Colts balls were overinflated.
Since Luck likes the ball near the higher end of the range, perhaps as a Stanford graduate, he understood the Ideal Gas Law and instructed his equipment manager to increase the psi in the Colts balls, since they would be dropping during the game. Why did he have a gauge on the field to measure the Intercepted ball?

It's why Exponent used the lower gauge as the 'right' measurements, because it more closely aligned with where the Colts balls would be at halftime. Never mind that only 4 were measured. Never mind that they had more time to reach equilibrium. Never mind that they could have been inflated at a different temperature and thus didn't drop as much as the Pats balls.

The 'control' group was anything but a control, for so, so many reasons. But Wells and Exponent didn't let that get in the way of drawing a conclusion, and time after time they went with the assumption that looks worse for Brady. Complete and total garbage.

 

[Ring 6]

It's why Exponent used the lower gauge as the 'right' measurements, because it more closely aligned with where the Colts balls would be at halftime. Never mind that only 4 were measured. Never mind that they had more time to reach equilibrium. Never mind that they could have been inflated at a different temperature and thus didn't drop as much as the Pats balls.

The 'control' group was anything but a control, for so, so many reasons. But Wells and Exponent didn't let that get in the way of drawing a conclusion, and time after time they went with the assumption that looks worse for Brady. Complete and total garbage.

If you use the Patriots balls as the control group, Anderson was right about what gauge he used, and the Colts added air to their balls.
There is as much evidence of this, or more, than that the Patriots removed air.

 

[hambone1818]

If you use the Patriots balls as the control group, Anderson was right about what gauge he used, and the Colts added air to their balls.
There is as much evidence of this, or more, than that the Patriots removed air.

Here's the thing: it doesn't have to be that sinister. The Colts balls and Pats balls could BOTH be legal, not tampered with, and correct using the higher gauge that Anderson said he used. The simplest explanation: the Colts balls were inflated at a temperature lower than the Pats balls (on the field before the game?), thus less of a drop in PSI. And the Colts balls were measured 10 minutes into halftime (not 7), so they had more time to reach equilibrium.

Taking these two very simple, very logical situations together and the higher gauge would be justified for the Pats, the Colts, Anderson...it's the most logical explanation.

But no, McNally went into the bathroom and risked a major scandal to remove an indistinguishable 0.3-0.4 psi from the Pats footballs. Seriously, that's what the report suggests.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

5) Science says their balls did not lose as much pressure as they should. Something had to be done to them.

That's not quite what Science says. A more accurate phrasing would be:

Science says their balls did not lose as much pressure as they should assuming that they were inflated under the same conditions as the Patriots' footballs and experienced the same conditions during the first half as the Patriots' footballs.

This isn't an exoneration of the Colts by any stretch; it's simply stating that we can only reasonably conclude that the balls were not identically prepared and treated.

 

[Ring 6]

That's not quite what Science says. A more accurate phrasing would be:

Science says their balls did not lose as much pressure as they should assuming that they were inflated under the same conditions as the Patriots' footballs.

Those qualifications were not made for the Patriots footballs.
If we are trusting the 'science' in the report, we cannot assume that the footballs were not at equilibrium when Anderson measured them.

 

[Ring 6]

Here's the thing: it doesn't have to be that sinister. The Colts balls and Pats balls could BOTH be legal, not tampered with, and correct using the higher gauge that Anderson said he used. The simplest explanation: the Colts balls were inflated at a temperature lower than the Pats balls (on the field before the game?), thus less of a drop in PSI. And the Colts balls were measured 10 minutes into halftime (not 7), so they had more time to reach equilibrium.

Taking these two very simple, very logical situations together and the higher gauge would be justified for the Pats, the Colts, Anderson...it's the most logical explanation.

But no, McNally went into the bathroom and risked a major scandal to remove an indistinguishable 0.3-0.4 psi from the Pats footballs. Seriously, that's what the report suggests.

Those assumptions were not allowed in the Wells report.
Since we cannot make assumptions, it is in fact more probably than not that someone manipulated the Colts footballs, because science does not explain their overinflated nature.

 

[drakesta101]

The Wells Report actually does explain why the Colts footballs were more inflated they just don't explicitly call it out. They have a chart in the Exponent Report which explains the level of expected PSI increase over the 14 minute period where the balls were brought inside at halftime. It's the section on the "transient" influence or something like that.

The balls are expected to increase approximately 1 PSI within 14 minutes of being brought inside. The Colts balls were measured last (remember they ran out of time)...They inflated more than the patriots balls because of the timing.

The funny thing is no one did anything egregious here whatsoever.

EVERYTHING can be explained by science.

 

[RDS11]

The data that was collected is garbage. It's incomplete, they didn't note which gauge was used, and the time was not noted either, which has a significant impact on any assumptions that are made. Also, water has an effect too, and it would be doubtful that every football had the same exposure to the rain.

The 'Belichick science' was debunked (according to the Wells report) because even though the rubbing of the football adds 0.7 PSI at the end of the exercise, after 20 minutes the PSI goes down because the temperature inside the ball has gone back to normal (i.e. room temparature). Thus, it should be the same thing for footballs that are moved inside at the half; if it's true that Anderson was short on time and could only collect the pressure for 4 Colts' football, it's reasonable to think the footballs had been inside for around 10 minutes...and thus the PSI was increasing again.

2 wrongs don't make it right; if the data is no good to make any assumption regarding the Pats, it's no good to make any assumption about the Colts either