I posted this on another thread but thought it would be relevant here:
I find that yards per target is a useful stat, and I have used to to project the steep decline of other players, such as Wes Welker, last year, by just using this and showing his decline despite many objections from this board. This shows just how fast some of these guys are declining, although it's hard to tell because they often keep the same "volume" numbers by getting more targets in order to seemingly keep their production up. There is always context and no single stat that shows everything, but I equate this one to passer rating for a QB; there is a very high correlation between this number and the players level of production/accolades.
Andre Johnson, Yards Per Target
2008: 170 targets, 1575 yards, YPT: 9.26
2009: 170 targets, 1569 yards, TPT: 9.23
(injury in 2010)
2011: 138 targets, 1216 yards, YPT: 8.81
2012: 164 targets, 1598 yards, YPT: 9.74
2013 181 targets, 1407 yards. YPT: 7.77
2014: 147 targets, 936 yards, YPT: 6.37
Look at the huge dropoff from his 2012 season to his 2013 season when he turned 32, and then from his 2013 season to his 2014 season when he turned 33. He isn't coming back. In 2013, by the way, he played with Schaub, who took a lot of the blame, but you have to wonder if Johnson was also a big reason for the struggling offense. That's the thing to realize: his gigantic descent was actually in 2013, but it went unnoticed because he had a career high 181 targets and was among the league leaders in yards, though he was actually regressing heavily.
In case there was any doubt about QBs, schemes, coaching, etc., look below at DeAndre Hopkins numbers last year with the same QB in the same system. Actually almost as good as any of AJ's career years. Johnson is cooked. He may blame the scheme but Hopkins actually had LESS opportunities but almost 300 more yards; AJ was still the go to guy but his play has declined steeply. Even with the worst "off-year" a YPT of 6.37 is so low it can only account for the player himself taking a huge step down. Decent receivers with crappy QBs are usually over 7.0.
2014 DeAndre Hopkins: 127 targets, 1210 yards, YPT: 9.53
2014 Andre Johnson: 147 targets, 936 yards, YPT: 6.37
Even in his rookie year, Hopkins was already outperforming Johnson and didn't seem to be so hindered by Matt Schaub as Johnson was.
2013 DeAndre Hopkins: 93 targets, 802 yards, YPT: 8.62
2013 Andre Johnson: 181 targets, 1407 yards. YPT: 7.77
I'm not saying Johnson is going to get cut in training camp this season, but for that contract, this is absolute insanity. Grigson is a complete dolt who believes you use free agency to upgrade with players who are in a career death spiral. I bet Johnson has a slight surge but nothing near his prime, and I'll be surprised if he's anything more than a 700 yard guy this year and a likely bench warmer next year, if he isn't cut.
