Strength of opponents and all that

[Fencer]

If I did the arithmetic correctly, the Patriots are currently

• 4-2 against teams that are over .500 (their game vs the Patriots excepted).
• 2-2 in road games against such teams.
  
• 4-0 against other teams.
• 3-1 against the other division leaders (counting both teams in the AFC West tie).
• 1-1 in road games against the other division leaders.

The naive projection from such observations would probably be for a 5-1 record the rest of the way.

 

[mayoclinic]

The naive projection from such observations would probably be for a 5-1 record the rest of the way.

13-3 would almost certainly net the #1 seed. Denver, KC and Cincy are the only AFC teams with 3 loses and we've beaten Denver and Cincy (who also has a tie). KC would have to win out plus 1 or more losses by the Pats to get the #1 seed.

If the Pats beat Miami at home week 15 they will almost certainly win the AFC East. Miami would have 5 losses and a split with the Pats.

 

[Fencer]

13-3 would almost certainly net the #1 seed. Denver, KC and Cincy are the only AFC teams with 3 loses and we've beaten Denver and Cincy (who also has a tie). KC would have to win out plus 1 or more losses by the Pats to get the #1 seed.

Right. The only way that the Pats lose the first seed closing 5-1 is if KC closes 6-0.

You're also right that 4-2 locks up the division if 1 of the 4 is vs. Miami.

 

[DarrylS]

Have always observed that the Patriots have their best games against the best opponents, my concern are the three December intradivision games... for some reason we do not seem to play as well in those venues..

Do we rise to the occasion and play our best against the best?? Or is it as simple as the AFC East knows us best??