Patriots claim RB Tyler Gaffney for 2015

[TruthSeeker]

People have labeled this statement negative.
Actually, given recent history as researched by Miguel, it's optimistic.
Just facts.

Yeah, have to agree with this, these guys have not really worked out. I am excited about Gaffney's overall talent, and realistically, a torn miniscus really isn't that bad (3-4 month recovery if no surgery, 6 month when they do surgery). he could turn out to be a nice find. Different scenario, but Woodhead had aknee injury while with the Jets, and he did pretty well with us.

 

[Huckleberry1]

People have labeled this statement negative.
Actually, given recent history as researched by Miguel, it's optimistic.
Just facts.

Patsfan2 is what is negative, and while the likelihood of him becoming a viable player after IR is always in doubt there's really no need to look at these moves in the most negative light every time they occur, better just to keep the piehole shut and see what happens. The Patriots have made many moves fror many unlikely p[layer, and many of them have actually worked out pretty well. If you want to go by the numbers then UDFA's are generally unlikely to really contribute on the whole, yet they have done so many many times for the Patriots and we really shouldn't be dumping on them just because the numbers say they won't make it. Just let it play out and judge it by the results in each case.

Actually when you look at the big picture just statistically you could probably say the draft picks don't generally work out, but that's still no reason not to have some hope that they will.

 

[OhExaulted1]

Dan Klecko also comes to mind. Dungy.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Call me not exited the odds of him doing next to nothing next year based on Patriot histoy with these kind of guys is like 95%.

Zero risk, 5% chance of reward. Play those odds a lot of times and you will be rich.

 

[Urgent]

OK, now people are bringing stats into the conversation!
Coin flipping and draft results and zero risk.

To look at this empirically:

Miguel pointed out that the recent results of low-round rookies on IR was the same as the Delta House GPA. "Zero point zero." That was the stat.

To then compare that to the draft is sort of a stretch. I believe there are several drafted players on the Patriots roster currently. Someone can look that up. The success rate of the draft is significantly higher than zero.

Same thing with UDFA's. We can each rattle off a list of UDFA's that have made this team and other teams, and have contributed. The stats absolutely support that approach. Name one late-sixth round pick with a torn up knee that has.

OK, name two.

This may or may not turn out to be the "most deeper" draft in decades, but this player was the #17 RB. While a terrific year for a number of positions, RB wasn't noted in those lists. Late sixth round is about the right place for the #17 RB in any draft. As someone earlier noted; if injured before the draft he would have been undrafted - and thus signed without any notable bonus anyway.

Finally, there may or may not be "zero risk" but there is not "zero cost." If, in fact, "you play those odds a lot of times" you will be unable to afford high-priced high-performing players in a salary-capped system. For example, behind door #1 you have 14 low-round/udfa players on IR, such as 2013, and the output of those players the next year; behind door #2 you have a $4mm difference between resigning Revis (say at a $14mm annual charge) and another CB at a $10mm charge. Pick one. That's an example of the cost of doing this. So the risk is the unproductive loss of the 2014 salaries.

If he was not picked up, Carolina would have been stuck with the salary. While Panther's fans are unhappy, we still don't know if Carolina management is.

Those are the stats, and I'm stickin' with 'em.

 

[mgteich]

If only the chances of finding a productive players among 5th or later round rookies on IR were REALLY AS MUCH AS 5%.

1 in 20 would be great. I suspect the reality is much less, but still worth the investment. BTW, we are playing for costs through the last week of the preseason. When we put him on waivers, another team might pick him up. I can't see keeping him on the 53 instead of one of the young prospects (Moore, Thomas, Swanson or Houston). In the end, Belichick will need to make a choice.

Zero risk, 5% chance of reward. Play those odds a lot of times and you will be rich.

 

[Miguel]

Financially its a steal for the Pats, the Panthers eat his signing bonus and the Pats have him under contract for four years at 6th round money!

Actually less than 6th round money
A 6th round pick has salaries of
420K
510K
600K
690K

Gaffney will have salaries of
303K
435K
525K
615K

 

[Bombdog]

Wow 23 pages on the Panthers site about us taking a 6th round pick with a bad knee. They need to get over it. But what's even worth is that I took the time to read all 23 pages. UGH

 

[PatsChamp88]

Wow 23 pages on the Panthers site about us taking a 6th round pick with a bad knee. They need to get over it. But what's even worth is that I took the time to read all 23 pages. UGH

Wonder how many pages they have accumulated on their wide receiver situation

 

[BradyFTW!]

If only the chances of finding a productive players among 5th or later round rookies on IR were REALLY AS MUCH AS 5%.

1 in 20 would be great. I suspect the reality is much less, but still worth the investment. BTW, we are playing for costs through the last week of the preseason. When we put him on waivers, another team might pick him up. I can't see keeping him on the 53 instead of one of the young prospects (Moore, Thomas, Swanson or Houston). In the end, Belichick will need to make a choice.

Usually the last guy on the 53 gets cut in the 1-2 days following final cutdowns anyway, so that we can sign someone else's last cut.

 

[supafly]

So We have to add him to our roster projections? When we IR him, can we sign a TE2? Will be an interesting time...

I may be misunderstanding your question/comment so forgive me if so, but no---there's no reason to have to add him to any roster projections. He's one of the 90 players allowed in TC, and I believe the idea is for him to make it to Aug.30th, when we make our last round of cuts down to 53.

At that time, he will be placed on season ending IR, which will allow us to forego the gamble of placing him on waivers and exposing him to the rest of the league.

 

[supafly]

Garrett Mills. Vikings Brad Childress. I forget who we stole from their roster. Bill was pissed.

Yeah, we snagged a poor unknown from them as well, and it was obviously a move that attempted to piss off Childress. I can't remember who the kid we took was, but he was totally irrelevant, and was promptly cut as expected.

In the case of G.Mills, he was projected to be an H-back/TE who never panned out either, but at least he was more of a "name" who people had been keeping an eye on.

 

[Mack Herron]

I may be misunderstanding your question/comment so forgive me if so, but no---there's no reason to have to add him to any roster projections. He's one of the 90 players allowed in TC, and I believe the idea is for him to make it to Aug.30th, when we make our last round of cuts down to 53.

At that time, he will be placed on season ending IR, which will allow us to forego the gamble of placing him on waivers and exposing him to the rest of the league.

For those who are familiar with the rules, my question is why didn't Carolina just put him on IR directly? And why do we have to wait until 8/30 if he doesn't have to be on the final 53?

 

[BradyFTW!]

For those who are familiar with the rules, my question is why didn't Carolina just put him on IR directly? And why do we have to wait until 8/30 if he doesn't have to be on the final 53?

Carolina could have put him on the IR directly if they'd kept him through the final cutdown (which is what we're going to have to do if we want to IR him without passing him through waivers). Supafly mentioned August 30th because that's the final cutdown date.

 

[Mack Herron]

Fair to say then that, for Carolina, the last roster slot was worth more than Gaffney next year, while the Pats felt Gaffney next year is worth more than the 90th roster spot this year.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Fair to say then that, for Carolina, the last roster slot was worth more than Gaffney next year, while the Pats felt Gaffney next year is worth more than the 90th roster spot this year.

Yeah, I think it pretty much comes down to that. They thought that the risk of exposing him to waivers was worth having an extra roster spot through the final cutdown.

 

[Mack Herron]

Fair to say then that, for Carolina, the last roster slot was worth more than Gaffney next year, while the Pats felt Gaffney next year is worth more than the 90th spot this year.

Yeah, I think it pretty much comes down to that. They thought that the risk of exposing him to waivers was worth having an extra roster spot through the final cutdown.

Put another way, the last roster spot is closer to making the Panthers than the Patriots this year,

 

[mgteich]

Usually the last guy on the 53 gets cut in the 1-2 days following final cutdowns anyway, so that we can sign someone else's last cut.

I agree. We talk a lot about the FINAL 53. Of course, that is an illusion. Usually, 1-3 players on the final 53 are not there for Game 3.

Sometimes, a player goes on IR. Sometimes, a player makes way for a signing from another team's cuts. Sometimes, a player is a short term roster player, as someone else recovers from injury, suspension, or even a veteran is signed after Game 1 (with no guarantees for the season's salary). Lots of times a special teamer can be added on a game to game basis after Game 1, without paying for an entire season.

 

[Koma]

A little postscript to this story:

Seattle waived injured OT Michael Bowie on Saturday with the intention of putting him on IR. Yesterday, he was claimed by the Browns.

Unlike Gaffney, Bowie is somewhat of a known quantity in the league, having started 8 games last year. He may not be great, but, when healthy, he could add depth for Cleveland, at a minimum. I'm just curious is there is an angry 20 page thread about this on a Seahawks board since the Browns trangressed the unwritten law.

 

[TruthSeeker]

I think Gaffney might not get IR'ed in the , end of the season type, but he may get the IR where he can come back this season. A torn miniscus only takes 3-4 months. he may be fully halthy in October or November. He hasn't had surgery yet as far as I know.