Who is your "safety valve" at #29?

[captain stone]

He's a beast!

Ryan Shazier, OLB, Ohio State, NFL Draft - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

This is where I'm leaning right now. In Kiper's latest Grade A draft, during which he makes picks
as if he were making them for each team, defensive players including Tuitt, Hageman, Nix, Jernigan,
Easley, Ealy, Shazier & Ward, TEs Amaro & ASJ, and OLmen Yankey & Bitonio all were still available.

2014 NFL draft - Mel Kiper's 'Grade A' mock pick-by-pick - ESPN

Kiper picks Jernigan; I would've picked Shazier. I this particular case, having quality starters at LB
without any quantity of depth whatsoever triumphs as a greater need over having quantity options -
and just as many question marks - without any quality starters at DT. Besides, why not err on the side
of speed for a change?

As it turns out, both Easley and Ealy are still available at 61. Kiper picks…a RB; I don't yet know whom
I'll pick, but it will most definitely be either the DT or the DE.

 

[zimmy]

If those players are gone, I'd be happy with any of the following at 29. But of course if those players go earlier then it drops someone to us we might not expect:

WR: Cooks, Beckham or Lee.
DT: Nix
CB: Jason Verrett

Would consider:

S: Jimmie Ward
CB: Kyle Fuller

With a trade down to 40ish:

DT: Easley
LB: Jeremiah Attaochu
DE: Stephon Tuitt
G: Xavier Sua-Filo
(and obviously any of the above if still there)

 

[manxman2601]

I think we're in a great position at 29.

Doug Kyed put together a composite first round based upon the rankings of a number of draft experts:

2014 NFL Draft: Odell Beckham Rises In Experts' Composite Rankings | NFL Draft | NESN.com

Ryan Shazier, Ra'shede Hageman, Kony Ealy, Dee Ford, Louis Nix and Timmy Jernigan are all ranked between 23 and 29. It's likely that at least one of those falls to 29. and if they don't, or whichever one that does doesn't appeal, then Amaro, ASJ, Tuitt can be had either at 29 or with a trade back. And that ignores WR and DBs.

All the names I've mentioned, I'd be comfortable taking at 29 in any other year (I like Jernigan the least but have warmed to him). In almost any scenario, we're in a really nice position.

 

[CTHuskies]

concerned with foot injury, so either Xavier Su'a-Filo, UCLA or Kony Ealy, Missouri

 

[AzPatsFan]

Many complain that it is difficult to determine who Belechick will draft.

I think it is actually fairly easy, if you keep a few concepts in mind that Belechick himself has said,

1) First round is for starters not reserves,

2) In the First round you only select sure things. No motivation,size, speed, or athletic deficiencies,

3) Gambles are for the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

4) Draft for NEXT seasons weaknesses, not last season's holes.
You have already faced those issues last season, and the problem is likely already on its way to solution, if you have a winning record.

5) if you reach in the first round to fill a weaknesses, you'll likely be drafting again to remedy that weakness, Next Draft. Sometimes there is just no one suitable. Wishing won't change that.

6) Observation: This next season's team is likely to be the most talented and complete team, on both Offense, and also on Defense, since BB undertook to rebuild, (wash your mouth out with soap! That word is verboten.), in 2009. For confirmation look at last season's statistics. Third in scoring on Offense; lower 3rd down completion rate stats, and finally suitable sack stats, and stabilized, partial year rushing defense.


Applying those concepts removes the discussion of using a First to draft a RESERVE DE, or a RESERVE TE, or a RESERVE LB,

What are future weaknesses? C, RG, and then LG, QB, perhaps DT.

There are no QB nor DE worth drafting where the Pats are picking.

There are quality interior OLs available this year that should be available late First into the late Second round.

There may be a QB available later, who should be rated in the late First or Second.

There will be BACKUP QBs who should be rated higher, due to injury, available in the 4th to 6th round.

There should be RESERVE TEs available to draft in 3rd through the 6th round,

There should be RESERVE LBs available to draft in the 4th through the 7th round,

There should be RESERVE RBs available to draft in the 4th through UDFAs.

The Pats already have a suitable contingent of low rated interior OLs in development, but they appear to lack front line quality talent.

The Pats already have a suitable contingent of low rated DLs in development, but they MIGHT lack a few front line, young talents,

With that information you should easily construct a Belechick draft; and what he might undertake for draft position changes and why he is doing it


PS My safety valve is Zack Martin or Joel Bitonio,

 

[Huckleberry1]

I have to admit, i have done a 180 on Shazier. I still have some doubts as to whether Belichick would take him or not because i thought LaVonte David was a lock for them despite his size when he was still there in the second and they took Tavon Wilson. At that point i think Belichick simply was not willing to go that far out of his comfort zone on LB's when it comes to size requirements they have for them, however as the game evolves so does belichick and i think he recognizes that the spread offenses that he and others have successfully merged ointo the pro game require defenders who are agile, and have speed and coverage abilities. Additionally as they have become more of a 4-3 team the measurables for LB's change pretty significantly and smaller faster LB's who can cover and hit become a priority. At the #29 there is a goodf likelihood that Shazier is the best player available, the biggest need, and the best fit. All are debatable but when it comes to need they are one injury from bad shape at LB and two away from calamity, so LB may well be their biggest need when all is said and done.

The more i looked at Shazier the more I saw a real football player who is going to be a really really good pro player, imo the risk is small and the upside big so he's at the top of my board for prospects that are actually within their range when the 29 rolls around. I would obviously take barr or donald ahead of him but seriously doubt either will be available so i have them off the board right now. Although we could get lucky and one of them will throw an inopportune punch right before the draft and make themselves available. Actually,Now that i think of it i may just have to start sending some "brownies" out to all of the top 32....................damn, i should have sent them to the Combine...........................

 

[dryheat44]

Many complain that it is difficult to determine who Belechick will draft.

I think it is actually fairly easy, if you keep a few concepts in mind that Belechick himself has said,

1) First round is for starters not reserves,

,

I think the first thing you have to realize is that Belichick's idea of a starter is likely different than yours. 3rd CB is a starter. 2nd TE and/or 3rd WR is a starter. 3rd DE is a starter. Coverage LB is a starter.

I think, for example, it is much wiser to use a first round pick on your #3 CB or #2 TE than a starting interior lineman or starting running back.

 

[patchick]

Applying those concepts removes the discussion of using a First to draft a RESERVE DE, or a RESERVE TE, or a RESERVE LB

I'd suggest you're leaning too much on a false starter/reserve dichotomy for these positions, especially on defense. E.g. last season the Patriots cornerback with the 4th-most snaps -- a "reserve" -- played more than the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th linebackers put together.

If they draft a guy like Ryan Shazier who can bring a valuable new element to the defense, he won't be anybody's backup. He'll see the field in lots of creative formations.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I'd suggest you're leaning too much on a false starter/reserve dichotomy for these positions, especially on defense. E.g. last season the Patriots cornerback with the 4th-most snaps -- a "reserve" -- played more than the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th linebackers put together.

If they draft a guy like Ryan Shazier who can bring a valuable new element to the defense, he won't be anybody's backup. He'll see the field in lots of creative formations.

Will he take lots of Collins snaps? Even if he platoons with Collins that is not what you want from a First.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I think the first thing you have to realize is that Belichick's idea of a starter is likely different than yours. 3rd CB is a starter. 2nd TE and/or 3rd WR is a starter. 3rd DE is a starter. Coverage LB is a starter.

I think, for example, it is much wiser to use a first round pick on your #3 CB or #2 TE than a starting interior lineman or starting running back.

I agree that the old concept of two starting CBs is obsolete, But it was in 2001 too, when BB had 4 starting caliber CBs, and 6/7 DBs to extinguish the Greatest Show on Turf,

But are you really going to sit Gronk, to play his backup TE? Get Real.

Brady went down 40 times, and we were extremely fortunate he wasn't on IR. There are acknowledged holes at C and RG. It is even affecting Mankins play, as he tries to do double duty on his job and help out Wendell.

It is much harder to win a SB with Brady battered and on the bench, To hell with drafting a RESERVE LB or a RESERVE TE. First things first.

I could see drafting a D lineman, But Donald is 30 pounds too small. Hageman, Tuitt have motivation or weight problems, a glaring warning sign, Ford is way too tiny, Ealy is there more by default than great talent, and Easly is an injury red shirt

All the TE candidates are S=L=O=W. They all remind me of Hoomanwanui not Gronk, and we already have him, hard worker, good blocker, good hands, can catch, but is too slow to get open, There are only two at most Ss; and both are FS more then SS, We already have a couple of those. Trying to promote others because there is no one there is a fool's errand.

You have gotten to the point where drafting 2nd/3rd stringers is the most important thing to do, Nonsense.

 

[dryheat44]

I agree that the old concept of two starting CBs is obsolete, But it was in 2001 too, when BB had 4 starting caliber CBs, and 6/7 DBs to extinguish the Greatest Show on Turf,

But are you really going to sit Gronk, to play his backup TE? Get Real.

Brady went down 40 times, and we were extremely fortunate he wasn't on IR. There are acknowledged holes at C and RG. It is even affecting Mankins play, as he tries to do double duty on his job and help out Wendell.

It is much harder to win a SB with Brady battered and on the bench, To hell with drafting a RESERVE LB or a RESERVE TE. First things first.

I could see drafting a D lineman, But Donald is 30 pounds too small. Hageman, Tuitt have motivation or weight problems, a glaring warning sign, Ford is way too tiny, Ealy is there more by default than great talent, and Easly is an injury red shirt

All the TE candidates are S=L=O=W. They all remind me of Hoomanwanui not Gronk, and we already have him, hard worker, good blocker, good hands, can catch, but is too slow to get open, There are only two at most Ss; and both are FS more then SS, We already have a couple of those. Trying to promote others because there is no one there is a fool's errand.

You have gotten to the point where drafting 2nd/3rd stringers is the most important thing to do, Nonsense.

1. Last I knew, Belichick maximized Brady's strengths by building a 2 TE attack. Even if Gronkowski is 100% all season, which I wouldn't bet a nickel on, we need a TE who an get on the field and produce.

2. There is a difference in saying there are holes at C and RG, and saying there are holes at C and RG, so therefore let's draft a C or RG in the first round.

3. A C or RG drafted in the third round will be among the best available. A LB, TE or DL will not.

4. Again, your delineation of 2nd stringers is way too rigid. Was Aaron Hernandez a 2nd stringer? Kyle Arrington? Wes Welker? Kevin Faulk?

You seem to be doing exactly what you say you claim to be against in TEs and Ss -- Trying to make a non-first round talent into a first-round draft pick for lack of a better option. A fourth LB, third DE, or third safety who rates as a first-round talent is the much better play.

 

[patchick]

Will he take lots of Collins snaps? Even if he platoons with Collins that is not what you want from a First.

I don't quite follow this. Why would you platoon two of the best athletes on your defense, one of whom is 6'1" 235 lb. with tremendous speed and quickness, and the other of whom is 6'4" 250 lb. with tremendous explosion? Those are two super-valuable chess pieces, and far from interchangeable.

I think it's easy to over-focus on the job title "linebacker." I'm looking more at skill sets rather than positions, with fluid defensive alignments as described in this thread.

 

[Off The Grid]

An interesting SideNote to this Discussion is FootBall OutSider's Snap Count Ticker.

It's a little annoying, but it produces nicely. I've been an huge Fan of that Site for Years, now, but I must give thanks to none other than our man Deuce Awry for pointing out this particular Value.

According to their Metrics:

1 ~ 15 Players hit 800 Snaps or more.
2 ~ 30 Players hit 400 Snaps or more.
3 ~ 40 Players hit 300 Snaps or more.

 

[manxman2601]

I haven't seen this discussed anywhere but according to Football Outsiders we had the best run blocking OL last season by a fairly significant margin.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2013 OFFENSIVE LINES

And the weakness seems to stem from the RT spot more than the interior OL (Vollmer injury).

Whilst I'm on board for a Bitonio in round two or even Martin in round one because they can both serve as future Mankins replacements, I really don't see a desperate need at OL. I'm fine with say three picks there (Patchan, Urschel, Leno, Thomas, Wesley Johnson and Kevin Pamphile).

 

[captain stone]

The thing is, though, that I very strongly feel that Wendy & Connolly should not, can not
and Must Not ever be on the field at the same time, ever again. That gruesome twosome
is Kryptonite for Brady. It's time to add another Young Stud or two to the OL again.

 

[mgteich]

I'm sure I'll change my mind in the next for weeks.

For now, I would consider Bridgewater, Manziel, ASJ, Amaro, Pryor, Truitt and Crichton.

Let's say pick 29 is about to be on the clock. So far, you've caught no breaks. E.g.:

Aaron Donald is a Cowboy.
Ra'Shede Hageman is a Raven.
Ryan Shazier is a Packer.
Dee Ford is a Saint.
Absolutely everybody is trying to trade down for more picks, so you can't find a trading partner. (An all-too-realistic possibility, according to current chatter.)

Who is your fallback plan, the player who you feel pretty confident will be available at #29 if you have to take them?

 

[supafly]

I haven't seen this discussed anywhere but according to Football Outsiders we had the best run blocking OL last season by a fairly significant margin.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2013 OFFENSIVE LINES

And the weakness seems to stem from the RT spot more than the interior OL (Vollmer injury).

Whilst I'm on board for a Bitonio in round two or even Martin in round one because they can both serve as future Mankins replacements, I really don't see a desperate need at OL. I'm fine with say three picks there (Patchan, Urschel, Leno, Thomas, Wesley Johnson and Kevin Pamphile).

I agree with this line of thinking, although I think that we still need to add someone in the 3rd-4th-5th rounds (if not two players) for the OL. I definitely agree that I don't see some tremendous need to spend a high pick on the position of OL. We should be decently set with the following:

Solder
Mankins
Connelly
Cannon
Vollmer
Wendell

as our top 6, with Kline, Cave, and possibly Svitek in the mix for depth and competition

Adding a couple of mid round studs could go a long way in my opinion.

The thing is, though, that I very strongly feel that Wendy & Connolly should not, can not
and Must Not ever be on the field at the same time, ever again. That gruesome twosome
is Kryptonite for Brady. It's time to add another Young Stud or two to the OL again.

I agree with you, I just think that we can utilize important resources in a better manner without having to necessarily spend a top 1-2-3 round choice at the position--particularly if it's for the interior, as expected.

I definitely do not want to see BOTH of those players on the field again though.

 

[supafly]

I'm sure I'll change my mind in the next for weeks.

For now, I would consider Bridgewater, Manziel, ASJ, Amaro, Pryor, Truitt and Crichton.

"IF" we're not expecting to see Mallett traded, then we could certainly risk taking a guy like Murray or Mettenburger later on, as one could make an argument that they could start to learn our system while still having Mallett as the true backup.

That's just my thoughts on the QB situation, for whatever it may be worth.

I think Tuitt would be difficult to pass up at 29 myself.

 

[Leemo]

But are you really going to sit Gronk, to play his backup TE? Get Real.

All the TE candidates are S=L=O=W. They all remind me of Hoomanwanui not Gronk, and we already have him, hard worker, good blocker, good hands, can catch, but is too slow to get open

Slow? Not seen much ASJ then?

We wouldn't have to sit gronk to get ASJ on the field.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Very interesting exercise Patchick. There have been a lot of good answers, but in the end I'd have to go with Tuitt for the following reasons

1. By this point EVERYONE comes with at least some question marks.

2. I think the Steven Tuitt of 2012 would rank much higher than he did this year. Injuries and added weight caused a perceptible drop in production. So it the Pats are comfortable that Tuitt will return to health, he'd be a steal at 29

3. I think BB is a 3-4 guy at heart and the reason we are in a 4-3 is more about his roster than his philosophy. If Tuitt is the guy the between Siliga at NT and Tuitt as the 3-4 DE and Armstead as the other, the Pats have 3 young pieces of the old 3-4 back in place to go along with the 2 older pieces in Kelly and Wilfolk

4. Since its likely we stay in a 4-3 base for this season, Tuitt's position flexibility would be ideal since he could be a pocket pushing DT like Kelly, and play some DE, especially in run situtations.

5. I DO NOT want Ford or Mosely 29. Both are dropping like stones, and for good reason. Both are excellent college player who aren't going to translate as well in the pros. Of course Ford could be the next James Harrison, and Mosely the next Lavonte David, but not in my eyes.

6. I loved Mayo's 5-2 analysis. Lots of formation flexibility and we have the right talent if we can mget the inside 3 set. Jones and Ninko would be perfect fits as the outside guys. since they can set the edge, rush the pass, and drop back in coverage.

Historical note: The 5-2 was originally perfected by Bud Wilkerson at Oklahoma back in the mid 50's. It was commonly called the "Okie". It was the defense I played in HS, and the one I coached 10 years later. Years later it became known as a 3-4 in the pros.

I'd rather see us back in a 3-4 simply because the biggest value of the scheme is that you can better hide your pass rush strategy than with a 4-3. And bringing this post back full circle, Steven Tuitt would be someone who could get us back to the 3-4

7. Other choices I'd be OK with are Easley, Ealy, and the best TE available

If they were to go back to a 3-4 then LB would be the overwhelming need as they only have three starters at this point. I'm not sure Ford can play the position but Mosely and Shazier could step in and start from day one, and Van Noy would be a solid pick but not in the first. I think belichick wants to maintain the flexibility to go 3-4 occasionally but this is really a 4-3 team at this point as Jones, Ninkovich and Buchanon are not LB's and they are not suited to playing end in a 3-4, and, as i said before they are way down on LB's if they want to play 3-4 and would need to add 3-4 of them to be suited for it as a base defense.