How much would you pay to keep Talib?

[mgteich]

It would depend on the value of the incentives. Game bonus alone might increase the value of the first 2 years to $16M. But I suspect that Talib will sign for more.

Why would Talib sign that deal?

 

[Deus Irae]

It would depend on the value of the incentives. Game bonus alone might increase the value of the first 2 years to $16M. But I suspect that Talib will sign for more.

We're (patsfans.com, not specifically you/me) basically having the Welker contract threads all over again. Nobody here seems willing to pay market value for players. I get that we don't know the exact market just yet, but we know that there's more money available than last year, and we know that Talib showed he could make a real impact over the course of a full season.

 

[supafly]

we know that Talib showed he could make a real impact over the course of a full season.

Do we know that for sure, Deus? Or do we know that he can make an impact when the sun/moon/stars all line up and he's healthy?

To me, there were 3 different Talib's again last year:

1. The one who played lights out for the first 6 games, and allowed only 13 completions on 33 attempts (39.3% completion rate)

2. The one who then went on to miss the next 4-5 calendar weeks (3 actual games due to the bye), and then again in the AFCCG for the second year in a row

3. The Talib that's in-between these 2 extremes, who gave up 28 completions on 42 attempts (66.6%) when he returned from the bye after missing time in the middle, until the time he missed again in the AFCCG. Obviously, that Talib wasn't the same as the one for the first 6 games.

When you take into account the fact that he misses a little more than 1/5 of every season during his 6 year career, never has completed a season at the end with his teammates in those 6 years, and has displayed the same old chronic hip injury now for a solid 3+ years, I'm not sure about this "top of the market" deal stuff that I keep hearing about.

Where the market sits will obviously be a factor, and that's what we're waiting to see. If it's anything around last year's numbers, he's not seeing close to what some are thinking. If it comes up a bit (which may be quite reasonable to believe), and the top of the tier guys like Grimes, DRC, and Verner are getting 8m per year or so, where does that leave Talib? One would have to think it's got to be a bit below them, no?

I definitely want to keep him due to the fact that he can play well when healthy, but not if it's going to be costing us 8m per season.

 

[OhExaulted1]

Well, it looks like the team is getting right out in front of negotiations. Nothing on Edelman or Wendell. Seems like Talib is top priority.

Patriots to Meet with Aqib Talib - Pats Pulpit

 

[supafly]

Well, it looks like the team is getting right out in front of negotiations. Nothing on Edelman or Wendell. Seems like Talib is top priority.

Patriots to Meet with Aqib Talib - Pats Pulpit

Let's hope they can get something accomplished, considering that there's only 2 weeks left until Talib hits free agency with the legal tampering period on 3/8.

The combine is normally a good place for negotiations, so I hope they can at least build some kind of framework there this week.

 

[mayoclinic]

The Dolphins have apparently reached an agreement with Brent Grimes on a long term deal:

Brent Grimes, Dolphins agree on new deal | ProFootballTalk

Supposedly a 4 year deal, terms not announced. For better or worse, this should set the market price for Talib.

 

[manxman2601]

The Dolphins have apparently reached an agreement with Brent Grimes on a long term deal:

Brent Grimes, Dolphins agree on new deal | ProFootballTalk

Supposedly a 4 year deal, terms not announced. For better or worse, this should set the market price for Talib.

4 years 32m according to Schefter

Dolphins gave Pro-Bowl CB Brent Grimes a four-year, $32 million deal that includes $16 million guaranteed, per ESPN source.

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/440518741626195969

 

[chasa]

I'm not comfortable giving Talib 8 mil a year with his hip and inability to play a full 16 game season.

 

[mayoclinic]

4 years 32m according to Schefter

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/440518741626195969

Hard to see it taking less than 4/$30 for Talib, then.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Talib is a better CB when healthy and will be 28 next season while Grimes will be 31.

I'll be shocked if we sign Talib to a penny less of Grime's deal.

 

[goheels22002]

Why on Earth would the Patriots insult Talib with the first offer, the way you're suggesting? That's only $500k more per year than the lowball number they stuck him with last year. The franchise number for cornerbacks is being projected at over $11m per year.

Franchise tag primer: Predictions for all 32 NFL teams - NFL.com

Given his recurring hip issue that is aggravated by short, 185-pound, blue-eyed slot receivers throwing body blocks, a long-term deal, even with a reasonable guarantee, is not worth it.

The Non-Exclusive Franchise Tag is perfect for Talib. Pay him well for one year to see how he holds up, or get two #1s if somebody else inks him to a long-term deal.

 

[goheels22002]

Why would Talib sign that deal?

Depends on the incentives, as Teich says. If it were play percentage-based that would be fairly straightforward, he might go with that. He should ask for more guaranteed, like $12m. But they could get this done.

Talib appears to be in a good place with New England. His cover talents are properly used, he's a fan and media favorite, and he's been to two AFC Championship games in a row after never having made the playoffs. This is a good gig.

(I'd still slap the Non-Exclusive Tag on him this year.)

 

[mayoclinic]

From Richard Hill:

Dolphins Sign Brent Grimes; Patriots Must Act on Aqib Talib - Pats Pulpit

I would think that a 4/$28M with behavior conditions and playing time incentives up to 4/$32 and $14-16M guaranteed would be reasonable for both sides.

 

[OhExaulted1]

I'm not comfortable giving Talib 8 mil a year with his hip and inability to play a full 16 game season.

That would be more than enough to get this done

 

[BradyFTW!]

Well, looks like the market for Talib has pretty clearly been established. On one hand, he's better than Grimes. OTOH, his recurring hip injuries would make me really uncomfortable with the idea of giving him that kind of guaranteed money. I think the Pats are probably just going to bite the bullet and hope he stays healthy, since guys with his physical tools are so rare.

 

[mayoclinic]

More of the obvious from Chris Price:

It Is What It Is » Could Brent Grimes deal with Dolphins help set market for Aqib Talib and Patriots?

 

[mayoclinic]

Reiss' view:

My initial reaction is that the price for Talib just went up a bit based on where I thought it might be.

I think the Patriots would do this type of deal for Talib if the $16 million in bonuses/guarantees was split into multiple parts -- such as $6 million up front, $5 million in a 2015 option bonus and another $5 million in 2016. The idea would be to protect against injury concerns and not have the full total of bonuses/guarantees paid up front where all the risk falls on the team side.

If another team was willing to pay more of it up front, I could see that being a deal-breaker from the Patriots' perspective.

Brent Grimes' market relative to Aqib Talib - ESPN Boston

 

[VJCPatriot]

Shocking but true -- Pats might have to pay more than 5m per season for Talib's services!!

 

[Deus Irae]

Given his recurring hip issue that is aggravated by short, 185-pound, blue-eyed slot receivers throwing body blocks, a long-term deal, even with a reasonable guarantee, is not worth it.

The Non-Exclusive Franchise Tag is perfect for Talib. Pay him well for one year to see how he holds up, or get two #1s if somebody else inks him to a long-term deal.

You're making an "if/then" statement that is not an absolute, and that you don't know the enough detail about the be certain of its correctness. If you think Talib is a top corner, you don't insult him by offering him a deal that's up to $3m short, per year. If you don't think Talib's a top corner, you sure as hell don't franchise him for more than $11m.

If you don't trust Talib's hip, why would you pay him $11+m with the thought that he might be out again? You'd be better off looking at Shields and/or Davis, who are both younger players.