What the Pats want for Mallet according to

[AzPatsFan]

Well I guess value has been established.

That is only your opinion, not BBs.

Mallett has a higher possible ceiling, prospectively cheaper to keep as a fully trained backup in 2014, and certain to merit a 3rd round comp pick after he is a FA; Otherwise the Pats will simply re-sign him if he doesn't get a great offer, p[ost 2014.

Why would BB do anything else?

 

[Snake Eyes]

Grid, I know you don't like Mallett.

But, for whatever reason, Belichick has had enough trust in Mallett that he has brought in no serious competition (no, Tebow doesn't count).

And the point in my comparison is that there are teams that are spending $4M a year on the backup QB position, while the Patriots have been spending about $1M a year over the last seven years.

Oh no, Tebow counts plenty!

What’s the point of bringing him in, and giving him as many reps as they did, if they weren’t looking for an upgrade from Mallett? That tells me they want to upgrade from him, it’s just that Tebow sucked so bad he actually wasn’t an upgrade.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Please explain how. Mallett is going to be an UFA after this season.

All he needs to do is transition tag him and its Cassell 2.0 all over again.

Except Brady isn't in his prime as he was in 2008, And Mallett has a higher potential ceiling, so someone would bite at that price tag, which implies a high comp pick.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Oh no, Tebow counts plenty!

What’s the point of bringing him in, and giving him as many reps as they did, if they weren’t looking for an upgrade from Mallett? That tells me they want to upgrade from him, it’s just that Tebow sucked so bad he actually wasn’t an upgrade.

If they were that desperate to upgrade, why did they not draft a QB, not even sign a single UDFA QB, and then wait for over a month after the draft before signing Tebow?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

All he needs to do is transition tag him and its Cassell 2.0 all over again.

Except Brady isn't in his prime as he was in 2008, And Mallett has a higher potential ceiling, so someone would bite at that price tag, which implies a high comp pick.

Transition tag = no draft pick compensation, only right of first refusal.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Transition tag = no draft pick compensation, only right of first refusal.

That is only true of direct team-to-team compensation, possibly. I don't know if what you say is correct. It didn't used to be true. When did they change it?

In any case, that raises the effective price another team would have to pay. BB could set that at 3rd round league comp levels, by simply matching anything below it. It might well be a cheap price comparatively, to keep Mallett post 2014.

 

[Miguel]

That is only true of direct team-to-team compensation, possibly. I don't know if what you say is correct. It didn't used to be true. When did they change it?

In any case, that raises the effective price another team would have to pay. BB could set that at 3rd round league comp levels, by simply matching anything below it. It might well be a cheap price comparatively, to keep Mallett post 2014.

Transition tags have never included draft pick compensation.

I have copies of the current CBA and its predecessor.

 

[Huckleberry1]

All he needs to do is transition tag him and its Cassell 2.0 all over again.

Except Brady isn't in his prime as he was in 2008, And Mallett has a higher potential ceiling, so someone would bite at that price tag, which implies a high comp pick.

I'm not sure where you are seeing the drop-off in Brady's play AZ, when he got Gronk back he played as well as ever and had he had a full receiving corps with experienced quality receivers he would have had another incredible year. When brady starts showing real signs of decline i will believe it but until then i am not going to start writing him off.

 

[ripatsfan91]

I'm not sure where you are seeing the drop-off in Brady's play AZ, when he got Gronk back he played as well as ever and had he had a full receiving corps with experienced quality receivers he would have had another incredible year. When brady starts showing real signs of decline i will believe it but until then i am not going to start writing him off.

This. Everyone is saying Brady is in decline.. maybe its because he was playing with a bunch of rookies and lost his top 6 receivers from last year. Oh he missed that throw in the AFC Championship game to Edelman? What about the play in the AFCCG where he threw a 30 yard bullet to Dobson on a comeback route? Or the divisional game where he hit Danny Amendola with a beautiful throw 55 yards downfield?

Brady was the only reason they were even in the AFCCG. Edelman was the only missed throw he had. Collie is not capable of catching anything but short crossing patterns and he didn't leave enough room on the sideline to make the catch.

Brady is as good as ever. He did amazing this past season considering what he had to work with. Maybe his 3rd best season ever (After 1. 2010 2. 2007). Expect a strong season from Brady next season.

I see no reason he can't play at an elite level until he is 40. Thats another 4 seasons. Now lets get another ring!

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

And the point in my comparison is that there are teams that are spending $4M a year on the backup QB position, while the Patriots have been spending about $1M a year over the last seven years.

An excellent point. Another key to the secret management practices of the New England Patriots.

 

[ripatsfan91]

If you think Brady is in decline skip to 36 seconds in and watch Brady thread the needle to Amendola on 3rd down: Patriots vs Colts Highlights Division Round 1_11_14 - YouTube

Very few NFL QBs make that throw. If it was Peyton, it would be A. Picked off or B. His receiver would be killed (See: Austin Collie and Wes Welker).

Also for those complaining about Brady's missed pass to Edelman in the AFCCG: QB Brady to WR Edelman, 43-yd, pass - NFL Videos (that pass was into the 26 mph winds)

Also watch this:
Danny Amendola 53-yard Catch vs. Colts - YouTube and


Yes, Brady missed the throw but everyone does. He is not in decline.

 

[Brady6]

If you think Brady is in decline skip to 36 seconds in and watch Brady thread the needle to Amendola on 3rd down: Patriots vs Colts Highlights Division Round 1_11_14 - YouTube

Very few NFL QBs make that throw. If it was Peyton, it would be A. Picked off or B. His receiver would be killed (See: Austin Collie and Wes Welker).

Also for those complaining about Brady's missed pass to Edelman in the AFCCG: QB Brady to WR Edelman, 43-yd, pass - NFL Videos (that pass was into the 26 mph winds)

Also watch this:
Danny Amendola 53-yard Catch vs. Colts - YouTube and


Yes, Brady missed the throw but everyone does. He is not in decline.

Brady was 74/188 for a 39.6% completion percentage and 8 interceptions when he threw the ball 11+ yards down field. To be expected he is not the deal passer that he was earlier in his career, father time impacts everyone.

 

[IllegalContact]

the question is whether you believe that with each year, does the chances of brady becoming ineffective (be it through injury, or old age) increases, and if so, by how much?

right now, mallett is the only available option that would stand a chance of keeping the pats on a playoff path.

randy moss is gone, so cassel and his bomb lobbing won't work, and there is nobody out there who shows anything

so the question is whether a 2nd round pick is worth that risk

 

[ripatsfan91]

Brady was 74/188 for a 39.6% completion percentage and 8 interceptions when he threw the ball 11+ yards down field. To be expected he is not the deal passer that he was earlier in his career, father time impacts everyone.

Could this be because he had arguably the worst talent at receiver in the league, zero threats at TE, and suffered from torn ligaments in his throwing hand for a potion of the season?

I see no reason to believe that Brady is in "decline". He will improve next season and will continue to play at a high level for the next 3-4 seasons.

 

[TonyTucker]

Holy crap, 39 percent when throwing 11 yards or more downfield? I knew it was bad, but that bad? They might as well have kept Tebow.

 

[Brady6]

Could this be because he had arguably the worst talent at receiver in the league, zero threats at TE, and suffered from torn ligaments in his throwing hand for a potion of the season?



I see no reason to believe that Brady is in "decline". He will improve next season and will continue to play at a high level for the next 3-4 seasons.

His completion percentage was 39.5% last season on throws 11+ yards down the field in 2012. He is older, his arm strength is not what it was in his 20s and early 30s. Father Time catches up with all of us.

Talent is an issue though, he needs players that can make plays on balls that aren't perfectly thrown, at his age expecting him to hit 25+ yard passes perfectly to 5'10" wide receivers is not setting him up to succeed.

I posted this in another thread.

I love Brady, and there is no other QB I would rather have but he is not the same QB when throwing down the field, as he was earlier in his career.

Passes 11+ yards down field –
-2007 – 97/189 51.3%, 2225 yards, 26 touchdowns, 8 interceptions
-2009 – 82/178 46.1%, 1966 yards, 18 touchdowns, 11 interceptions
-2010 – 66/137 48.2%, 1467 yards, 15 touchdowns, 4 interceptions
-2011 – 99/193 51.9%, 2269 yards, 21 touchdowns, 8 interceptions
-2012 – 76/192 39.5%, 1748 yards, 13 touchdowns, 5 interceptions
-2013 – 74/188 39.3%, 1694 yards, 13 touchdowns, 8 interceptions

He is older and like everyone else has likely lost some arm strength with age.

So if we want to give him the best chance to succeed we need to rebuild the tight end position and add another physical outside receiver who can make plays on the football down field, we cannot continue to expect a 36 year old QB to throw perfect passes 25 yards down field to 5’10 receivers.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I predict that aging TFB will markedly improve his downfield throwing stats in 2014.
I fully recognize the great risk (e.g. WTF? will he be throwing to) this prediction entails

HOMAH!!!!

 

[Brady6]

I predict that aging TFB will markedly improve his downfield throwing stats in 2014.
I fully recognize the great risk (e.g. WTF? will he be throwing to) this prediction entails

HOMAH!!!!

I think that he will get back on track in the 11-20 yard range –

- 2013 – 59/127 46.5%
- 2012 – 54/124 43.5%
- 2011 – 84/146 57.5%

That is where he has dropped off over the last few years; he was never that accurate 21+ yards down the field, to be fair most QBs are not, Manning with his great receiving corps was 44.8% when throwing 21+ yards down field.

If you look at the 2011 season Brady had Gronkowski, Hernandez and even Branch who were capable of making receptions between 11-20 yards, in 2012 he played most of his games without either Hernandez or Gronkowski. This left Lloyd as his primary target beyond the first 10 yards, but he was a disappointment only making 24 of his 74 receptions on balls that travel 11 yards in the air. This past season his primary threats down field were Dobson, Thompkins and Boyce (Gronkowski for 7 games), they were all rookies who combined for 78/161 48.4% and 16 dropped passes.

To improve the 11-20 range we need a healthy Gronkowski, and we need to rebuild the rest of the TE group, in addition, we need Dobson to make the second year leap, and we need to add a real SE-WR or Z-WR that is capable of going beyond 10 yards down field. Edelman and Amendola are both good players but of their combined 159 receptions in 2013, only 30 of them were catches 11+ yards down the field. That is far too predictable.

 

[PP2]

Could this be because he had arguably the worst talent at receiver in the league, zero threats at TE, and suffered from torn ligaments in his throwing hand for a potion of the season?

I see no reason to believe that Brady is in "decline". He will improve next season and will continue to play at a high level for the next 3-4 seasons.

He may improve in certain areas as a result of having a healthy throwing hand, but his long range accuracy has decreased since 2009 (after the year long layoff), through no fault of his own.

That's old age and that's inevitable. It happens to every QB. No one escapes this.

 

[goheels22002]

That has pretty much nothing to do with my point. My point is that even if the Texans are high on Mallett based on BOB's experience with him --which you'd have to figure they are if they're willing to trade a second round pick for him -- there is the separate issue of salaries and roster construction. Trading a second round pick for a guy who has only moderately less uncertainty surrounding him than a rookie, and who will also be under your control for half as long as a rookie would be before hitting FA, is not good business.

Say that Mallett turns out to be a really good quarterback. If the Texans trade for him and only extend him for one year, then that means they'll have exactly two years with him on a cap-friendly deal before they have to pay him big bucks. It pretty much eliminates the possibility of getting a Luck/Kaepernick style window where you're getting upper echelon production at a low price.

The opportunity to get that window matters a lot, and if they can get it by drafting their QB but not by trading for Mallett, then that will be a significant point in favor of turning to the draft to find their quarterback.

The Texans already have a good back up who has won a playoff game - TJ Yates. Yates is a big hard-throwing guy like Mallett who is content to hold the clipboard, collect a cap friendly salary that is more money than most us will ever make in a year, and work hard. Why would they want Mallett?